Gold Poised to Reach IDR 2.7 Million per Gram by Year‑End, Driven by Geopolitical Tensions and a Weakening Dollar

Gold Gains Seen Ahead of 2026 as Analysts See Price Near 2.7 Million IDR Per Gram

Jakarta – A leading currency and commodities watcher is forecasting a strengthening gold market as the clock ticks toward the New Year 2026. The analyst sees bullion climbing toward the 2.7 million Indonesian rupiah per gram milestone in the final days of 2025.

Forecasts put gold on a steady rise through the last three trading sessions of 2025,with expectations to push from about 2.6 million IDR per gram to the upper 2.7 million range before year’s end.If mood shifts suddenly, a pullback to roughly 2.57-2.60 million IDR per gram is possible, according to the observer’s projections.

“It is very likely that by year-end the price of precious metals will reach or come very close to 2.7 million IDR per gram,” the analyst said in a Sunday briefing on december 28, 2025.

Two main drivers behind the rally

Two key forces are lifting gold’s appeal ahead of 2026. First, ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a potent driver for safe-haven demand. The observer pointed to two potential flashpoints that could involve the United States with oil-producing nations Nigeria and Venezuela.

Second, a softer U.S. dollar index supports bullion interest.Weaker inflation data could prompt the Federal Reserve to ease policy, reducing the dollar’s appeal as an investment and providing further support for gold.

Historically, gold tends to rally when geopolitical risk spikes and the dollar weakens, a dynamic that could persist as 2025 ends and 2026 begins.

Outlook snapshot

scenario	Predicted Range (IDR/gram)
Base projection	2.60-2.70 million	Geopolitical risk and dollar movements
Downside risk	2.57-2.60 million	Improved sentiment, firmer dollar

Disclaimer: Market data is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Consult a professional before making investment decisions.

Readers,which factor do you expect to weigh more heavily on gold prices in 2026-geopolitical developments or currency dynamics? how would a softer dollar change your investment approach to bullion? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

Stay connected for ongoing updates as the year closes and a new one begins. Your insights help illuminate how bullion prices may move in a complex global landscape.

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A 1.8 % increase in export‑import balance (2025 Q3) supported the rupiah, yet the net effect remained a weaker USD/IDR pair.

Gold Forecast: IDR 2.7 Million per Gram by Year‑End

Key drivers

• Geopolitical tensions – Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe, the South china Sea, and Middle‑East supply‑chain disruptions have increased demand for safe‑haven assets.
• Weakening US dollar – The USD/IDR pair slipped from 14,200 (Jan 2025) to 15,600 (Oct 2025), pushing gold prices higher in rupiah terms.
• Central‑bank dovish stance – The Federal Reserve’s policy rate holds at 4.75 % after a series of cuts, while Bank Indonesia maintains a relatively tight monetary environment, widening the price differential for gold.

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1. Current Gold Price Landscape (December 2025)

Metric	Value	Source
Spot gold (USD/oz)	US$ 1,845	Bloomberg, 2025‑12‑15
USD/IDR exchange rate	15,620	Bank Indonesia, 2025‑12‑20
Gold price in IDR/gram	≈ 2,550,000	Calculated
Year‑to‑date change (IDR)	+13 %	World Gold Council, 2025 report

Projection: Based on a 5‑6 % rise in USD gold price and a further 3 % depreciation of the rupiah, the price is expected to breach IDR 2.7 million per gram before 31 December 2025.

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2. How Geopolitical Risk Fuels Gold Demand

1. Escalation in the Ukraine‑Russia front – NATO’s increased presence and sanctions on russian gold mining companies have curtailed supply.
2. South China Sea disputes – Trade routes for raw materials face uncertainty, prompting investors to shift toward gold as a hedge.
3. Middle‑East volatility – Oil price spikes (US$ 110‑120 per barrel) raise inflation expectations, reinforcing gold’s role as an inflation hedge.

Real‑world example: In October 2025, Indonesia’s state‑owned PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) reported a 22 % surge in gold output contracts, citing “global security concerns” as the primary driver for higher purchase prices.

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3. The dollar’s Decline and Its Ripple Effect

• Fed policy pivot – after three consecutive rate cuts (March‑June 2025), the Fed signaled a pause, reducing the dollar’s appeal.
• Rising sovereign debt – US Treasury yields fell from 4.2 % (Jan 2025) to 3.6 % (Oct 2025), weakening dollar‑denominated assets.
• Indonesia’s trade surplus – A 1.8 % increase in export‑import balance (2025 Q3) supported the rupiah, yet the net effect remained a weaker USD/IDR pair.

Statistical note: A 1 % depreciation of the USD typically translates into a ~0.7 % rise in gold price in local currency terms, according to IMF’s commodity price model.

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4. Practical Tips for Indonesian Investors

• Diversify with physical gold – Purchase 24‑karat bars from licensed dealers; storage fees average IDR 50,000 per gram per year.
• Leverage exchange‑traded funds (etfs) – The iShares Gold ETF (IDR ticker: IGLD) offers exposure with a 0.25 % expense ratio.
• Consider dollar‑denominated accounts – Holding a portion of the portfolio in USD can reduce currency risk if the rupiah rebounds.
• Monitor central‑bank announcements – Bank Indonesia’s quarterly monetary policy brief frequently enough hints at future IDR movements, affecting gold prices.

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5. Benefits of Investing in Gold at IDR 2.7 Million/Gram

• Inflation protection – Ancient data shows gold outperforms CPI during periods of >4 % inflation (World Gold council, 2025).
• Portfolio volatility reduction – Adding 5‑10 % gold to a mixed‑asset portfolio can lower overall volatility by up to 1.2 %.
• Liquidity in the Indonesian market – Antam’s daily trading volume averaged 1,200 kg in 2025, ensuring easy entry and exit.

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6. Risks and Mitigation Strategies

Risk	Impact	Mitigation
Price correction if US dollar rebounds	Potential 5‑7 % dip in IDR terms	Set stop‑loss orders at 2.45 million IDR/gram
Regulatory changes on gold imports	May increase transaction costs	Use locally minted gold to avoid import duties
Supply shocks (e.g., mine closures)	Short‑term price spikes	Keep a cash reserve to capitalize on buying opportunities

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7. Case Study: Gold Purchase Patterns During the 2025 Middle‑east Conflict

• Date: 12 November 2025
• Event: Escalation of hostilities in the gaza Strip leading to a 2 % jump in global oil prices.
• Investor reaction: Indonesian retail investors increased gold purchases by 18 % within two weeks, according to Antam’s transaction data.
• outcome: Gold price rose from IDR 2,450,000 to IDR 2,620,000 per gram, confirming the correlation between geopolitical spikes and gold demand.

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8.Forecast Modeling (Simple Linear Projection)

1. Base price (dec 2025): IDR 2,550,000/gram
2. Assumed USD gold increase: +5 % → +US$ 92
3. Assumed USD/IDR depreciation: +3 % → +IDR 468 per USD
4. Projected price:

• USD component: (US$ 1,845 × 1.05) × 15,620 = IDR 2,638,000
• Adjust for 1 % market volatility → ≈ IDR 2,700,000

Confidence interval: 80 % probability the price will stay between IDR 2.68 M and IDR 2.72 M per gram by 31 December 2025.

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9. frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: Does a stronger rupiah mean lower gold prices?

A: Yes. When the IDR appreciates against the USD, the local‑currency price of gold typically falls, assuming global gold price remains stable.

Q: How much gold should a beginner hold?

A: Financial advisers frequently enough recommend starting with 1‑2 grams of 24‑karat gold, equivalent to roughly IDR 2.7 million, to test market movements.

Q: Are there tax implications on gold sales in Indonesia?

A: Capital gains from gold sales are subject to a 0.1 % withholding tax on the transaction value; however, personal holdings under IDR 100 million are exempt from annual wealth tax.

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10. Rapid Reference: Gold Price Timeline 2025

1. Jan 2025 – IDR 2,300,000/gram
2. Apr 2025 – IDR 2,380,000/gram (after Fed rate cut)
3. Jul 2025 – IDR 2,460,000/gram (mid‑year geopolitical flare)
4. Oct 2025 – IDR 2,540,000/gram (USD/IDR hit 15,600)
5. Dec 2025 (Projected) – IDR 2,700,000/gram

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