For decades, the SAT and ACT have loomed large in the college admissions process, often seen as gatekeepers to higher education. But a growing body of research suggests these standardized tests may not be the best indicators of a student’s potential for success in college. Increasingly, evidence points to a more readily available metric: high school grade point average, or GPA.
The debate over standardized testing isn’t recent, with long-standing concerns about cultural bias and equity. However, recent studies, particularly those accelerated by the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, have reinforced the idea that a student’s consistent academic performance throughout high school is a stronger predictor of college outcomes. This shift in understanding has significant implications for students, parents, and the future of college admissions.
This matters more than the SAT
GPA as a Stronger Predictor of College Success
Research consistently demonstrates that high school GPA is a more reliable indicator of college performance than standardized test scores. A landmark 2009 study by William Bowen, Matthew Chingos, and Michael McPherson, published by Princeton University, analyzed data from over 150,000 students across nearly 70 colleges and universities. The researchers found that at the most selective institutions, high school GPA was 2.5 times more predictive of six-year graduation rates than SAT scores. At less selective schools, that difference was even more pronounced, with GPA proving to be 10 times more predictive.
This finding isn’t isolated. Repeated research, including a report from the Education Policy Institute, highlights the superior predictive power of high school GPAs. The consistency of these results challenges the long-held assumption that a single standardized test can accurately assess a student’s readiness for college.
The Impact of Test-Optional Policies
The COVID-19 pandemic forced many colleges and universities to temporarily abandon standardized testing requirements in 2020, including all eight Ivy League schools, as reported by Progress Learning. This provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of test-optional admissions policies.
The results were mixed, particularly regarding diversity. A study of Dartmouth College admissions revealed that high-achieving students from disadvantaged backgrounds saw their chances of admission improve by 2.4 times when they submitted their scores, according to research from the National Bureau of Economic Research. However, a separate study by the University of California, Davis, found that universities that eliminated standardized test requirements generally increased diversity, unless constrained by financial issues or a continued emphasis on academic criteria, as detailed in a study published in the journal Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis.
By 2023, many institutions began reinstating testing requirements, allowing for a comparative analysis of admissions outcomes with and without the test-optional approach.
New Research Confirms GPA’s Dominance
A recent working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) further solidifies the case for prioritizing GPA. Led by Theodore Joyce of Baruch College, CUNY Graduate Center, the study analyzed data from over 225,000 students, examining both pre- and post-COVID cohorts. The researchers assessed student performance as freshmen, second-year retention rates, and college graduation rates. Their conclusion is stark: “Our results underscore the dominance of HSGPA as the most important predictor of student success at this public university system.” The paper unequivocally states that high school grades are a vastly superior predictor of student academic success than is the SAT.
Implications for Students and Educators
The implications of these findings extend beyond college admissions offices. If GPA is indeed the most reliable indicator of college success, it suggests that the focus should shift from test preparation to strengthening academic foundations throughout high school. Too often, students and families invest significant resources in SAT and ACT tutoring, resources that could be more effectively allocated to academic support and enrichment. High schools should emphasize the importance of consistent academic performance and provide students with the resources they need to succeed in their coursework.
This isn’t to say standardized tests are entirely without value. They can provide a common metric for comparing students from different high schools with varying grading standards. However, the weight given to these tests should be reconsidered in light of the overwhelming evidence supporting the predictive power of GPA.
Looking ahead, it will be crucial to continue monitoring the impact of admissions policies and refining our understanding of the factors that contribute to student success in college. The conversation surrounding college admissions is evolving, and a greater emphasis on holistic review, including a thorough evaluation of a student’s academic record, is likely to become the norm.
What are your thoughts on the role of standardized testing in college admissions? Share your perspective in the comments below.
