Haitong Securities: The highlight of the golden pit laid a good foundation for the rebound of the stock index after the holiday

  Haitong SecuritiesIt was pointed out that on Wednesday, the market took advantage of the impact of the sharp decline in foreign markets and the effect of the National Day holiday. The recent continuous decline has further digested the accumulated profit, and the market risk has been released. , The golden pit was highlighted, laying a good foundation for the rebound of the stock index after the holiday.Investors are advised to pay more attention to low-value and low-value products, especiallySSE 50As a representative of the large blue chip sector, the latest valuation of the index is only 13.36 times, and the overall valuation level is relatively low. The recent technical form has gradually strengthened, which is expected to lead the market to stabilize and rebound first.

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Zaobao: The golden pit is highlighted, waiting for a rebound

On September 29, affected by the overnight external market drop, the risk aversion sentiment in the near-long holiday market was superimposed, and the three major A-share indexes opened lower across the board, showing a weak adjustment pattern overall. As of the close,Shanghai IndexFell 1.83% to 3,536.29 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.64% to 1,4079.02 points;Growth Enterprise Market IndexIt fell 1.13% to 3175.15 points. The total turnover of the two cities was 1,077.8 billion yuan, and the net outflow of northbound capital was 267 million yuan.On the disk, nearly 4,000 stocks in the two cities fell. The strong oil and gas sector fell the day before, and the power stocks continued to fall. The fertilizer, phosphate chemical, shale gas, steel, and coal sectors were among the top decliners.themeAlmost all the flames are turned off, onlyBank, Pork concept, food, lease and sale of the same rights and other sectors maintained the red market, the market sentiment fell to the freezing point.

On the news, the world’s largest asset management said: It is recommended to increase holdings of A shares in the near future, and the long-term allocation will increase several times!Global capital markets are worriedMidlandThe world’s largest asset manager when the uncertainty brought by China’s regulatory policiesBlackRockBut they gave different opinions: As China’s domestic macroeconomic policy may shift to moderate easing, tactically, it has shifted from neutral in the middle of this year to increasing holdings of A shares. In the recent stage, there is still support for buying risky assets, especially Chinese stocks that are underweight globally. From a medium and long-term strategic perspective,BlackRockIt is pointed out that the proportion of China’s asset index benchmark is small, and the actual allocation of customers is not enough, and there is room for several times of increase.

According to statistics, as of the evening of September 28, a total of 92 A-share companies released the first three quartersPerformanceAccording to the forecast, 74 companies with good performance, such as turning losses, pre-increasing, and slightly increasing, accounted for more than 80%. According to industry insiders, as the National Day Golden Week approaches, the risk aversion before the holiday is strong, and some institutions have begun to focus on the third quarterly report. In addition, the current dual-control power rationing is still continuing to ferment, and the performance support is strong. Variety or a good choice.

Technically,The Shanghai Composite IndexContinued the adjustment trend, the lowest reached 3,518.05 points, once fell below the 60-day moving average and the 120-day moving average. The continuous contraction of Changyin triggered a technical panic, and the decline was more thorough. At present, the daily K-line of the Shanghai Index has fallen to the 3312-3394 uptrend line and the reverse technical support of the previous 3731-3614 high point connection near 3520 points. Technical adjustments are basically in place, plus today is the last trading day before the National Day. It is expected that the stock index has a higher probability of stabilizing and rebounding at this position. Another thing to remind investors is the SSE 50 Index. The recent trend is relatively defensive. The technical form is building a composite head and shoulders reversal pattern around 3100 points. The MACD and KDJ indicators are also showing golden cross resonance, which is expected to start a rebound at any time. Or it will become the vane and flag of the post-holiday style transformation, which deserves special attention.

Strategically, on Wednesday, the market took advantage of the impact of the foreign market plunge and the effect of the National Day holiday. The recent continuous decline has further digested the accumulated profit, and the market risk has been released. Thoroughly, the golden pit was highlighted, laying a good foundation for the rebound of the stock index after the holiday. From a historical point of view, A shares performed well after the November holiday, and the probability of a good start after the holiday was more than 70%. Among them, the change in the liquidity environment was the main reason. The central bank’s open market operations in September had a net investment of 335 billion yuan.interest rateThe level remains at a relatively low level. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the domestic economy will perform better than the third quarter, and the macro liquidity is still in a phased window. Under the release of local real estate credit risks, the macro liquidity will be more relaxed. It is expected that the fourth quarter will fall overall. The Brigadier General landed in October. In addition, after October, A-shares will also enter the third quarterly report disclosure period. We expect that A-shares in the third quarterly report are still expected to perform better than expected. The continued higher-than-expected price factor is the main reason for the performance of the interim report. Therefore, we still tend to Investors are advised to pay more attention to rising opportunities after the holiday and even in the fourth quarter. In terms of operation, it is recommended that investors pay more attention to low-value and low-value products, especially the large blue-chip sectors represented by the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50. The latest valuation of the index is only 13.36 times, and the overall valuation level is relatively low. The recent technical pattern is gradually strengthening, which is expected to lead the market. Take the lead in stabilizing the rebound.

(Source: China Business News)

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