A surge in Democratic primary turnout, fueled by Latino voters in Texas, has presented the party with a potential opportunity to regain ground in the traditionally Republican state. In multiple Latino-majority counties, the number of Democratic votes cast on March 3 exceeded the total votes received by Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential primary, signaling a significant shift in voter engagement.
The increase in participation was particularly pronounced in South Texas, a region that saw a move towards President Trump in 2024. Starr and Hidalgo counties, along the U.S.-Mexico border, experienced jumps in primary votes of 67% and 51% respectively, compared to the average across 2020, 2022, and 2024. Majority-Latino counties saw a 37% growth in primary votes this year, exceeding the 33% increase observed in other parts of the state.
This heightened engagement included a substantial number of fresh primary voters, with roughly one-third of Latino early voters having not participated in a recent primary election. Data indicates a strong preference for the Democratic primary among Latino voters, with approximately three in four choosing the Democratic ballot over the Republican one. This trend was even more pronounced among new primary voters.
The Democratic gains come after years of struggling to maintain support among Latino voters nationwide. A Pew Research Center survey confirmed that President Trump won 48% of the nationwide Latino vote in 2024, a 12-point increase from four years prior. In Texas, this shift manifested in several heavily Latino counties along the Rio Grande transitioning from Democratic strongholds to areas leaning Republican.
James Talarico’s victory in the Democratic Senate primary race was significantly bolstered by support from Latino voters. In counties with higher shares of Latino voters, Talarico outperformed his rival, Representative Jasmine Crockett, by wide margins. For example, in El Paso, where Latinos comprise over 80% of the population, he secured 62% of the vote, and in Bexar County, including San Antonio, he received 57%. Talarico’s campaign benefited from an earlier start and greater financial resources, allowing for targeted advertising to Latino audiences.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic that this renewed enthusiasm among Latino voters could translate into success in the upcoming November elections, potentially reversing Trump’s 2024 sweep in the region. State Senator César Blanco, who sits on the board of an organization focused on the Latino voter bloc, stated, “Our participation is becoming a defining factor in elections across the state. We are a force to be reckoned with and I suppose this midterm election demonstrates that.”
However, the long-term implications remain uncertain. Political analyst Mike Madrid, a veteran California GOP strategist, described the Democratic surge as a “five alarm fire” for Republicans, but whether this momentum will persist through the general election remains to be seen. The Texas Democratic Party is striving for a statewide victory for the first time in over three decades, betting that backlash to the president’s policies will resonate with voters across the ballot.
Following the primary results, Republicans have not issued a comprehensive response outlining a strategy to address the shifting demographics and increased Democratic engagement in South Texas. The next scheduled statewide election is in November.
