Reykjavik – Iceland is preparing to hold a referendum on resuming talks to join the European Union “in the coming months,” significantly earlier than the previously scheduled 2027 vote. The decision, announced by Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir on Wednesday, comes amid growing concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions in the Arctic region, fueled by actions from the United States.
The move marks a potential shift in Iceland’s relationship with the EU, after previous attempts to join the bloc stalled in 2013 due to the Eurozone crisis. While Iceland is already a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the Schengen Area, granting it access to the EU’s single market and free movement, full membership would offer greater political and economic integration. The prospect of renewed EU accession talks is now being driven by external pressures, particularly those emanating from Washington.
US Actions Prompt Reconsideration
According to international media reports, the primary catalyst for accelerating the referendum is the increasingly assertive foreign policy of the United States under President Donald Trump. Specifically, the United States has imposed import tariffs and reportedly threatened to annex Greenland – a territory of Denmark, and often mistakenly conflated with Iceland by President Trump – raising anxieties in Reykjavik about its own security and sovereignty.
During a speech in Davos, Trump reportedly confused Iceland and Greenland on four separate occasions, highlighting a perceived lack of understanding of the region. Billy Long, Trump’s nominee for US Ambassador to Iceland, reportedly joked that Iceland could become the “52nd state” of the US, with himself as governor. These statements have fueled concerns within Iceland about potential US intentions, despite the country’s existing membership in NATO.
Historical Context of Iceland’s EU Bid
Iceland initially applied for EU membership in 2009, coinciding with the peak of the global financial crisis that severely impacted the Icelandic economy. However, as Iceland recovered rapidly while the EU grappled with its own economic challenges, the then-government paused the accession process in 2013. The current government had previously promised a referendum on resuming talks in 2027, but has now expedited the timeline in response to the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Recent polling data suggests a growing appetite for EU membership among Icelanders. Two opinion polls conducted in 2025 indicated a narrow majority in favor of joining the EU. A Prósent poll showed 45% support for accession, while 35% opposed it. Another poll from the same year revealed similar results: 44% in favor and 36% against.
Navigating the Arctic Landscape
The strategic importance of the Arctic region, particularly its location for military and resource access, is at the heart of the current tensions. The Netherlands, recognizing the growing significance of the Arctic, has been actively engaging with countries in the region, including Iceland and Norway, to foster cooperation on issues ranging from climate change to security, as highlighted by Dutch Ambassador for Norway and Iceland, Ines Coppoolse. The Dutch government emphasizes the importance of the Arctic region for its own interests.
If Icelandic voters approve the resumption of EU accession talks, the process could proceed relatively quickly, given that Iceland has already adopted much of EU legislation through its participation in the EEA. A specific date for the referendum is expected to be announced in the coming weeks. NRC reports that the referendum will be held “in the coming months.”
The outcome of the referendum will have significant implications for Iceland’s future, as well as for the broader geopolitical dynamics of the Arctic region and the EU’s role in the area. The next step will be the formal announcement of the referendum date, followed by a period of public debate and campaigning. The result will undoubtedly be closely watched by both European and North American policymakers.
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