The price of oil surged to its highest level in two years on Saturday, reaching a peak not seen since April 2024, as the conflict in Iran continues to escalate. Brent crude climbed to around $80 per barrel in overseas trading, a jump of ten percent, before settling back slightly to remain approximately nine percent higher than Friday’s close, according to reports from the German press agency, Tagesschau.
The increase in oil prices comes amid growing concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies. Iran had previously prohibited ships from traversing the Strait of Hormus, a critical waterway for oil exports from several countries. Most tanker owners and oil companies have subsequently suspended deliveries, according to Spiegel Online. Over 20 percent of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormus.
Qatar’s Energy Minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warned of a potential energy crisis, stating in the Financial Times that a complete halt to production from all Persian Gulf states could drive prices as high as $150 per barrel. This would have significant repercussions for economies worldwide, including Germany.
The situation is further complicated by recent attacks. The airport in Baghdad, Iraq, was targeted with rockets on Friday evening, with some projectiles reportedly landing near Camp Victory, a U.S. Military base. The Saraya Awlijaa al-Dam group, which identifies as part of a pro-Iranian network, claimed responsibility for the attack. Explosions were also reported in Erbil, in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, with smoke rising from a hotel.
Despite the rising prices, the OPEC+ group announced only a modest increase in production, raising the daily output by 206,000 barrels starting in April – less than 0.2 percent of global demand. Experts, as cited by Spiegel Online, doubt this measure will be sufficient to stabilize the market. Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, stated that this step “will likely not calm the markets.”
The German Bundeswehr is also responding to the escalating tensions, withdrawing additional soldiers from the Golf region as part of the UNIFIL mission, Tagesschau reported.
Emirates and Etihad Airways have resumed operations, but the overall impact on global shipping remains uncertain. Israel has reportedly launched an attack on Beirut. Former U.S. President Trump has called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has described the situation in the Middle East as a humanitarian emergency. Four individuals suspected of being Iranian spies were arrested in London.
The price increases are already being felt at the pump, with experts drawing parallels to the economic consequences seen following the start of the war in Ukraine, according to Handelsblatt. The situation remains fluid, with no immediate resolution in sight.
