The question of how long Iran can sustain a prolonged military conflict is gaining urgency as the country faces a coordinated offensive from the United States and Israel. Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran is prepared for a “long war,” echoing statements from other Iranian officials asserting their resolve to defend the country “at any cost.” This comes as the conflict enters its third day, with Iran facing sustained attacks from both nations.
Since February 28, 2026, the U.S. And Israel have been conducting a large-scale, coordinated military offensive against Iran, targeting political leaders as well as military and governmental infrastructure. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel and U.S. Bases in neighboring Gulf countries. As of March 4, 2026, the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) reported that Iran had launched over 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones, according to Almirante Brad Cooper, head of Centcom.
The duration of Iran’s ability to withstand this pressure hinges on a complex interplay of factors, including its missile and drone capabilities, production capacity and overall resilience. Experts suggest that a key turning point may have been Iran’s missile attacks on Israel in October 2024, following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. This action, some analysts believe, revealed weaknesses in Iran’s long-range missile program and eroded its deterrent potential.
The current conflict is raising concerns about regional stability and the potential for escalation. Understanding Iran’s capacity to endure a protracted war is crucial for assessing the likely trajectory of the conflict and its broader geopolitical implications.
Assessing Iran’s Arsenal and Production Capabilities
Initial assessments by the Israeli military estimated Iran possessed approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles at the start of the war. Still, this number has likely decreased due to launches and potential destruction from Israeli and U.S. Bombing raids targeting storage facilities. Satellite imagery shows damage to missile bases in cities including Kermanshah, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Tabriz North, with entrances to underground arsenals completely collapsed. The extent to which missiles were removed from these storage sites before the conflict remains unknown.
While the exact number of remaining missiles is unclear, Iran appears to have a more flexible capacity to maintain drone production. Manufacturing facilities are reportedly minor and discreet, and leaked Russian documents suggest Tehran can produce around 5,000 drones per month. These Shahed drones are relatively inexpensive to produce, costing Iran several thousand dollars each, compared to the approximately $3 million price tag for a Patriot missile interceptor.
Impact of Attacks on U.S. And Allied Infrastructure
Recent analysis by The New York Times, based on verified satellite imagery and videos, indicates that Iran has damaged structures within the communication and radar systems of at least seven U.S. Military bases in the Middle East and surrounding areas. These attacks suggest a deliberate attempt to disrupt U.S. Military communication and coordination capabilities.
The conflict is already taking a toll on the Iranian population, who are vulnerable to the ongoing attacks. While the U.S. And Israel claim to be conducting targeted strikes, avoiding civilian casualties in densely populated areas is proving difficult. Reports from Iran indicate a primary school in Minab, in the south of the country, was struck on the first day of the conflict, with state media showing images of mass burials for 168 children and their teachers. Israel has denied responsibility for the attack, and the U.S. Has announced an investigation.
Iran’s Strategy and Regional Implications
Fawaz Gerges, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, suggests that “Iran will strive to prolong the war and buy time.” He believes Iranian leaders have been planning for this scenario and are preparing for a protracted conflict, with resilience – the ability to withstand impacts and continue resistance – as a primary objective.
The ability of Iran to sustain this conflict will depend on its capacity to replenish its arsenal, maintain domestic support, and navigate the complex regional dynamics. The conflict also raises concerns about potential spillover effects and the broader implications for Middle East stability. The economic impact of the war on Iran and the region is also significant, with potential disruptions to oil supplies and trade routes.
The current situation underscores the importance of understanding Iran’s strategic calculations and its willingness to endure a prolonged conflict. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining the trajectory of the war and its ultimate outcome.
As the conflict continues, monitoring Iran’s ability to maintain its military capabilities, its internal stability, and the broader regional response will be crucial. The international community will be watching closely for any signs of escalation or attempts to de-escalate the situation.
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