WASHINGTON — In his first public statement since ascending to the role of Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei has demanded retribution for the recent U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and signaled a continuation of aggressive policies, including the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. However, it’s what the new leader didn’t address that is causing the most concern in Washington: the future of Iran’s nuclear program. The omission has left U.S. Officials largely in the dark about whether Khamenei will maintain his father’s cautious approach or pursue the development of a nuclear weapon.
The timing of Khamenei’s statement, delivered Thursday, comes as President Trump has expressed a desire to de-escalate the conflict, even with Iran retaining a stockpile of enriched uranium. This creates a precarious situation, as a more hardline leader now at the helm of Iran could view a nuclear deterrent as essential for regime survival following the devastating attacks. The potential for Iran to resume its pursuit of a nuclear weapon is a growing worry for the U.S. And its allies.
Khamenei’s initial address, broadcast by Iranian state media, focused heavily on vengeance and continued disruption. He called for attacks on U.S. Military bases in the Middle East and vowed to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for global oil supplies. The shipping of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped since the war began, causing global oil prices to soar, with Iran warning on Wednesday that the price per barrel could climb to $200. Oil prices extended gains following Khamenei’s statement.
The Nuclear Question Mark
U.S. Intelligence has long operated under the assumption that the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pursued a strategy of remaining at the threshold of nuclear capability – possessing the knowledge and materials but avoiding the actual construction of a bomb. This was reinforced by a 2003 religious edict, or fatwa, declaring nuclear weapons forbidden under Islam. However, the new supreme leader, wounded in the same attack that killed his father, is viewed by some as more hardline and conservative.
This shift in leadership, coupled with the devastating losses suffered by Iran, raises the possibility that Khamenei may abandon his father’s doctrine. Eric Brewer, deputy vice president of the nuclear materials security program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating, “Even if President Trump declares victory tomorrow, and points to the damage done to Iran’s conventional military, the fact of the matter is you have a more hardline regime in place with the key ingredients for a nuclear weapon.” Brewer noted that Iran currently possesses a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium – close to weapons grade – and the necessary centrifuges to complete the process.
Limited Insight into Khamenei’s Views
Adding to the concern is the lack of clarity surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei’s personal views on nuclear policy. Patrick Clawson, director of the Iran program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, explained that the new leader’s position on the matter remains a “stubborn mystery.” Reports circulating on social media suggesting opposition to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal, are unsubstantiated. “While Mojtaba often advised his father on domestic issues, there is much less information about his position on foreign affairs, other than opposition to Israel,” Clawson said. “I have never seen any indications he took a position about the JCPOA.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth urged Khamenei to publicly disavow the pursuit of nuclear weapons, stating, “He would be wise to heed the words of our president, which is to not pursue nuclear weapons,” in a recent exchange with reporters. However, the lack of direct communication and the new leader’s silence on the issue are fueling anxieties within the U.S. Government.
What’s Next?
As the Trump administration considers its next steps, the uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear intentions looms large. The possibility of a ground invasion to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains a contentious issue, with officials skeptical of its feasibility and wary of further escalation. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether diplomatic channels can be opened to address these concerns or if the conflict will continue to escalate, potentially pushing Iran closer to developing a nuclear weapon. The international community will be closely watching for any indication of Khamenei’s intentions and the future direction of Iran’s nuclear program.
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