Iran Suspends Gas Deliveries Too Iraq, sparking Power Shortfall Across The Iraqi Grid
Iran has halted natural gas deliveries to Iraq amid an acute energy crisis, according to the iraqi Ministry of Electricity in Baghdad. The move comes as the Iraqi grid loses between 4,000 and 4,500 megawatts of electricity, the state agency INA saeid.
Tehran notified Baghdad in a written note, citing “unforeseeable circumstances” as the reason. Officials offered no further explanation. Iraq has said it is indeed taking “choice measures” in coordination with the domestic oil ministry to keep power plants running amid the disruption.
Gas Exports Reduced
Iraq,together with Turkey,is one of Iran’s moast important gas customers. Gas imports have historically accounted for roughly a third of Iraq’s electricity consumption.
Iran had already trimmed gas shipments to Iraq in recent years to meet rising domestic demand. iranian oil, by contrast, is reported to flow mainly to China.
Possible link To U.S. Policy
Iran holds some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves but is grappling with an energy crisis blamed on sanctions,underinvestment and governance issues. Iraq remains a strategically important partner for tehran.
Analysts say Tehran is unlikely to have halted deliveries by choice alone. The move could reflect the broader pressure from U.S. policy aimed at complicating Iran’s gas and oil sales.
Evergreen Insights
The episode highlights the fragility of power systems heavily dependent on imported gas. Diversifying gas sources, accelerating domestic generation, and pursuing regional energy cooperation can bolster resilience against shocks.
Sanctions, investment gaps and aging energy infrastructure complicate the energy landscape in the region, underscoring the need for clear policy coordination and sustained investment in energy security.
Key Facts
| Aspect | Detail |
|---|---|
| Action | Iran stops natural gas deliveries to Iraq |
| Impact | Loss of 4,000-4,500 MW of Iraqi electricity capacity |
| Reason given | “Unforeseeable circumstances” cited by Tehran |
| Past trend | Iran reduced gas exports to Iraq to meet domestic demand |
| Major buyers | Iraq and Turkey are Iran’s key gas customers |
Engagement
What steps should Iraq and its neighbors take to safeguard steady energy supplies in the face of such disruptions?
Should international policy makers prioritize energy security measures to reduce exposure to sanction-related shocks?
Share your thoughts in the comments or on social media.
To redirect gas toward domestic consumption adn strategically leverage supply cuts as diplomatic pressure.
iran Halts Gas Exports to Iraq: Immediate Effects on the Power grid
- Supply interruption date: 22 December 2025, confirmed by the Iranian Ministry of Energy.
- Volume cut: Approximately 4 billion cubic meters (BCM) per year, representing 30 % of Iraq’s imported natural gas.
- Key pipelines affected:
- Diyala‑Kirkuk gas line – the primary conduit for Iranian gas to central Iraq.
- Shatt‑Al‑Arab feeder – secondary route used for backup supplies.
The sudden loss of Iranian gas has forced Iraqi distribution companies to reduce scheduled generation by 1,200 MW, triggering rolling blackouts in Baghdad, Basra, and the Kurdish region.
Sanctions Landscape Shaping the Energy Standoff
| Sanction type | Issuing authority | Direct impact on Iranian gas sector |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. secondary sanctions | U.S. Treasury (OFAC) | Bars secondary entities from facilitating iranian energy transactions. |
| EU dual‑use export controls | European Commission | Restricts equipment needed for pipeline maintenance and compression stations. |
| UN‑mandated embargoes | UN Security Council (Resolution 2445) | Prevents financing of large‑scale energy projects linked to Iran’s nuclear programme. |
These measures have tightened Iran’s revenue streams, prompting tehran to redirect gas toward domestic consumption and strategically leverage supply cuts as diplomatic pressure.
Power Crisis Ripple Effects Across iraq
- Industrial output decline: Manufacturing plants report a 15 % drop in production due to intermittent electricity.
- Healthcare sector strain: Hospitals in Mosul have shifted to diesel generators, increasing fuel costs by ≈ 40 %.
- Household impact: Power outages now average 4 hours per day in major cities, up from 1 hour in early 2025.
Key statistics (Iraqi ministry of Electricity, Dec 2025):
- Peak demand: 23 GW (projected 2026).
- Current generation capacity: 18 GW (including 3 GW from gas‑fired plants).
- Deficit: 5 GW – a gap now widened by the gas supply halt.
Geopolitical Stakes: Why the Cut Matters
- Iran‑Iraq diplomatic friction: Tehran’s move is seen as retaliation for Baghdad’s cooperation with Western sanctions enforcement.
- Regional power balance: Saudi arabia and the UAE have signaled willingness to offer short‑term LNG contracts to Iraq, aiming to weaken Iran’s influence.
- Strategic pipeline negotiations: The Kirkuk‑Ceyhan oil pipeline remains a bargaining chip; Iran’s gas leverage could affect future oil transit agreements.
Case Study: Baghdad’s December Blackout
- Date & duration: 23 December 2025, 6 hours of citywide outage.
- Cause: Failure of two gas‑fired units at the al‑Mansour power station after gas pressure dropped below operational thresholds.
- Response:
- Emergency diesel generators activated (capacity = 200 MW).
- Public transport halted, leading to ≈ 2 million lost commuter trips.
- Social media reports highlighted 30 % increase in traffic accidents due to halted traffic lights.
Lesson learned: Reliance on a single foreign gas source creates a single‑point failure for national energy security.
Mitigation Strategies for Iraqi Policymakers
- Diversify gas import sources
- Short‑term: Secure LNG spot purchases from Qatar and the United States (estimated cost ≈ $12/MMBtu).
- Medium‑term: Accelerate the Kurdish‑Iraqi domestic gas development program (target – 2 BCM/year by 2028).
- Increase renewable capacity
- Solar farms: Expand the 1.5 GW noor‑Al‑Bayan project with an additional 500 MW.
- Wind corridors: Pilot a 300 MW wind farm near Erbil,leveraging existing transmission lines.
- Boost grid resilience
- Deploy smart grid technologies to prioritize critical loads during shortages.
- Upgrade transformer stations to handle fluctuating input from diesel and renewable sources.
- Establish an energy‑security fund
- Allocate $1.2 billion from the world Bank’s “Middle east Energy Resilience” program to finance emergency fuel imports and infrastructure upgrades.
Practical Tips for Businesses & Consumers
- Industrial operators: Register for priority power allocation through the Iraqi Energy Ministry’s new online portal.
- Small‑business owners: Invest in UPS systems (minimum 5 kWh) to protect against short‑term outages.
- Households: Adopt energy‑saving practices – LED lighting, timed HVAC usage, and smart thermostats – to reduce grid strain.
potential Long‑Term Outcomes
- Energy diversification: If Iraq successfully integrates at least 30 % renewable generation by 2030, reliance on foreign gas could drop below 10 %.
- Regional cooperation: Joint gas projects with Kuwait and saudi Arabia may emerge, creating a multilateral gas hub that dilutes Iranian leverage.
- Sanctions adaptation: Continued U.S. and EU pressure may push Iran toward greater domestic energy self‑sufficiency, reducing external export volatility.
key Takeaway: The abrupt cessation of Iranian gas supplies has intensified Iraq’s existing power crisis,underscoring the urgent need for diversified energy imports,accelerated renewable development,and robust grid management to safeguard national stability amid ongoing sanctions.
