Iran’s supreme leader warns any US attack would spark ‘regional war’ : NPR

This handout image from the U.S. Navy shows an EA-18G Growler landing on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Indian Ocean on Jan. 23, 2026.

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran’s supreme leader warned Sunday that any attack by the United States would spark a “regional war” in the Mideast, further escalating tensions as President Donald Trump has threatened to militarily strike the Islamic Republic.

The comments from the 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are the most-direct threat he’s made so far as the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and associated American warships are in the Arabian Sea, sent by Trump there after Tehran’s bloody crackdown on nationwide protests.

It remains unclear whether Trump will use force. He’s repeatedly said Iran wants to negotiate and has brought up Tehran’s nuclear program as another issue he wants to see resolved.

But Khamenei also referred to the nationwide protests as “a coup,” hardening the government’s position as tens of thousands of people reportedly have been detained since the start of the demonstrations. Seditious charges in Iran can carry the death penalty, which again renews concerns about Tehran carrying out mass executions for those arrested — a red line for Trump.

Iran had also planned a live-fire military drill for Sunday and Monday in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil traded passes. The U.S. military’s Central Command had warned against threatening American warships or aircraft during the drill or disrupting commercial traffic.

Khamenei warns US

Iranian state television reported Khamenei’s comments online before airing any footage of his remarks.

“The Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war,” Khamenei was quoted as saying.

A woman walks through the Shiite Saints Abdulazim and Taher shrine in Shahr-e-Ray, south of Tehran, Iran, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026.

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It added that Khamenei said: “We are not the instigators and we do not seek to attack any country. But the Iranian nation will deliver a firm blow to anyone who attacks or harasses it.”

Khamenei also hardened his position on the demonstrations after earlier acknowledging some people had legitimate economic grievances that sparked their protests. The demonstrations began Dec. 28, initially over the collapse of Iran’s rial currency. It soon grew into a direct challenge to Khamenei’s rule.

“The recent sedition was similar to a coup. Of course, the coup was suppressed,” he said. “Their goal was to destroy sensitive and effective centers involved in running the country, and for this reason they attacked the police, government centers, (Revolutionary Guard) facilities, banks and mosques — and burned copies of the Quran. They targeted centers that run the country.”

Parliament speaker says EU militaries considered terrorist groups.

The speaker of Iran’s parliament, meanwhile, said that the Islamic Republic now considers all European Union militaries to be terrorist groups, lashing out after the bloc declared the country’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard a terror group over its bloody crackdown on nationwide protests.

Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, a former Guard commander, announced the terror designation, which will likely be mostly symbolic. Iran has used a 2019 law to reciprocally declare other nations’ militaries terror groups following the United States declaration of the Guard a terror group that year.

Qalibaf made the announcement as he and others in parliament wore Guard uniforms in support of the force. The Guard, which also controls Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and has vast economic interests in Iran, answers only to Iran’s 86-year-old Khamenei.

“By seeking to strike at the (Guard), which itself has been the greatest barrier to the spread of terrorism to Europe, Europeans have in fact shot themselves in the foot and, once again, through blind obedience to the Americans, decided against the interests of their own people,” Qalibaf said.

Lawmakers at the session later chanted: “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!” at the session.

Trump says Iran is ‘seriously talking’ to US

Trump has laid out two red lines for military action: the killing of peaceful protesters or the possible mass execution of those detained in a major crackdown over the demonstrations. He’s increasingly begun discussing Iran’s nuclear program as well, which the U.S. negotiated over with Tehran in multiple sessions before Israel launched a 12-day war with Iran back in June.

The U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites during the war. Activity at two of the sites suggests Iran may be trying to obscure the view of satellites as it tries to salvage what remains there.

Trump on Saturday night declined to say whether he’d made a decision on what he wanted to do regarding Iran.

Speaking to reporters as he flew to Florida, Trump sidestepped a question about whether Tehran would be emboldened if the U.S. backed away from launching strikes on Iran, saying, “Some people think that. Some people don’t.”

Trump said Iran should negotiate a “satisfactory” deal to prevent the Middle Eastern country from getting any nuclear weapons, but said, “I don’t know that they will. But they are talking to us. Seriously talking to us.”

Ali Larijani, a top security official in Iran, wrote on X late Saturday that “structural arrangements for negotiations are progressing.” However, there is no public sign of any direct talks with the United States, something Khamenei has repeatedly ruled out.

What are the potential consequences of Iran’s Supreme Leader’s warning about escalation risks in the Middle East?

Iran’s Supreme Leader’s Warning: Escalation Risks in the Middle East

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has issued a stark warning regarding potential U.S. military action,stating any attack on Iran would ignite a “regional war.” This declaration, reported by NPR and widely covered by international media, considerably raises the stakes in an already volatile geopolitical landscape. Understanding the context, potential triggers, and possible ramifications is crucial for assessing the current situation.

Recent Escalation & Underlying Tensions

The warning follows a period of heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran,fueled by several factors:

* Proxy Conflicts: Both nations support opposing sides in conflicts across the Middle East,notably in Yemen,Syria,and Iraq. These proxy battles often serve as flashpoints for direct confrontation.

* Nuclear Program: Iran’s nuclear program remains a central point of contention. while Iran maintains its program is for peaceful purposes,the U.S. and its allies fear it might very well be weaponized.The 2015 Joint Complete Plan of Action (JCPOA),aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions,has been significantly weakened since the U.S. withdrawal in 2018.

* Red Sea Attacks: Recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, attributed by the U.S. to Houthi rebels in Yemen (backed by Iran),have prompted a strong U.S. military response. This has further escalated tensions.

* U.S. Military Presence: The substantial U.S.military presence in the region, including naval forces in the Persian Gulf and troops stationed in Iraq and Syria, is viewed by Iran as a direct threat.

Potential Triggers for Direct Conflict

several scenarios could possibly trigger a direct military confrontation:

1. Attack on U.S. Assets: A direct attack by Iran or its proxies on U.S.military personnel or assets in the region would likely provoke a strong U.S. response.
2. Israeli Action: A unilateral military strike by Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities, without explicit U.S. approval, could draw Iran into a direct conflict with both Israel and the U.S.
3. Escalation in the Red Sea: A meaningful escalation of attacks in the Red sea, leading to casualties or substantial economic disruption, could prompt a more forceful U.S. intervention.
4. Miscalculation: A miscalculation or unintended incident could quickly spiral out of control, leading to an unintended escalation.

Iran’s Military Capabilities & Potential Responses

Iran possesses a range of military capabilities that could be employed in a conflict:

* Ballistic missiles: Iran has a large and increasingly sophisticated ballistic missile arsenal, capable of reaching targets throughout the Middle East and potentially beyond.

* Cruise Missiles: Iran also possesses a significant inventory of cruise missiles, which can be used to target ships and land-based infrastructure.

* Naval Forces: Iran’s naval forces, while smaller then those of the U.S., can disrupt shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and potentially employ asymmetric warfare tactics.

* Proxy Network: Iran’s extensive network of proxies throughout the region could be activated to launch attacks against U.S.and allied interests.

* Cyber Warfare: Iran has demonstrated capabilities in cyber warfare and could potentially launch attacks against critical infrastructure.

Should a conflict erupt,Iran could respond through a combination of these methods,aiming to raise the costs for the U.S. and its allies.

Regional Implications of a Wider War

Khamenei’s warning of a “regional war” is not an exaggeration.A conflict between the U.S. and iran would likely have devastating consequences for the Middle East:

* Humanitarian Crisis: A war would likely result in a significant humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement, casualties, and disruption of essential services.

* Oil Supply Disruption: The Persian Gulf is a critical artery for global oil supplies. A conflict could disrupt oil flows, leading to a sharp increase in oil prices and potentially triggering a global economic recession.

* Increased Terrorism: A wider conflict could create a breeding ground for extremist groups and lead to an increase in terrorist activity.

* Regional Instability: The conflict could destabilize the entire region, potentially drawing in other countries and exacerbating existing conflicts.

* Impact on Global Security: The conflict could have far-reaching implications for global security,potentially diverting resources and attention from other pressing issues.

Historical Precedents: The Tanker War (1987-1988)

The current situation bears some resemblance to the “Tanker War” of 1987-1988, during the Iran-Iraq War. This conflict involved attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, leading to U.S. intervention and a significant escalation of tensions. while a full-scale war was avoided, the Tanker War demonstrated the potential for a regional conflict to quickly escalate.

Diplomatic Efforts & De-escalation Strategies

Despite the heightened tensions, diplomatic efforts are ongoing to de-escalate the situation. These include:

* Indirect Talks: Indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran, mediated by countries like Oman and Qatar, have been held to discuss issues such as the nuclear program and regional security.

* International Pressure: International pressure on both sides to exercise restraint and engage in dialog.

* De-escalatory Measures: Calls for de-escalatory measures,such as