Lebanon’s Ceasefire on the Brink: Why Military Solutions Won’t Secure Lasting Peace
Over 10,000 violations. That’s the number of Israeli air and ground incursions into Lebanese territory since the November 27, 2024 ceasefire, according to UNIFIL. A year after the truce aimed to quell hostilities following the October 7th attacks, the agreement is fracturing, and the specter of a wider conflict looms large. The situation isn’t simply a breakdown of military restraint; it’s a stark illustration of how military power, absent genuine diplomacy, consistently fails to deliver lasting stability in the Middle East – a lesson Israel, despite its regional military dominance, continues to relearn.
The Fragile Foundation of the 2024 Ceasefire
The ceasefire ostensibly ended the latest round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, triggered by the fallout from Hamas’s October 7th assault on Israel. Hezbollah, significantly weakened by Israeli strikes, saw its regional influence diminished, contributing to shifts in dynamics across Syria and even impacting Israel’s posture towards Iran. The agreement itself hinged on several key pillars: the disarmament of non-state actors in Lebanon, particularly south of the Litani River; Israel’s withdrawal from occupied areas of southern Lebanon; and US-brokered negotiations to delineate the disputed border. A year later, none of these objectives have been met.
Israel maintains a presence in five border posts within Lebanon and continues daily raids, justifying them as targeting Hezbollah’s rearmament efforts. These actions, however, are increasingly perceived as a prelude to a larger operation, with reports suggesting a willingness to “finish the job.” This escalation risks unraveling the already tenuous stability and reigniting a full-scale conflict.
A Window of Opportunity Squandered? The Lebanese State’s Dilemma
The formation of a new Lebanese government in February 2025, the first since 2008 without Hezbollah’s veto power, initially offered a glimmer of hope. Many saw this as a chance for the Lebanese state to reassert its sovereignty, including disarming Hezbollah and initiating economic recovery after the devastating financial crisis of 2019. However, the path to disarmament is fraught with challenges.
Hezbollah remains the most powerful military force in Lebanon, deeply embedded in the political landscape. Disarming the group would fundamentally alter its identity and power structure, a prospect it is unlikely to concede willingly. Furthermore, the Lebanese army, historically a symbol of sovereignty rather than a robust defense force, lacks the capacity and political will to compel disarmament without risking a descent into civil war. Reports even suggest tacit cooperation between elements within the army and Hezbollah, further complicating the situation.
The Role of US Policy and Regional Power Dynamics
US policy, historically focused on containing Hezbollah, has largely centered on bolstering the Lebanese army with security assistance, while simultaneously pressuring Beirut to disarm the group. This approach has proven counterproductive, as evidenced by the recent criticism leveled at the Lebanese army chief of staff for acknowledging Israeli violations of sovereignty. Meanwhile, despite Iran’s own economic struggles, reports indicate continued financial support for Hezbollah, providing a lifeline at a critical juncture. The Council on Foreign Relations provides further analysis on the complex dynamics within Lebanon.
The Escalating Risk of Renewed Conflict
The current trajectory is dangerously reminiscent of the cycles of violence that have plagued Israel-Lebanon relations since the late 1960s. Israel’s shift towards a “zero tolerance” security doctrine following the October 7th attacks, coupled with Hezbollah’s continued presence and occasional provocations, creates a volatile mix. Domestic political considerations in Israel, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu’s precarious position, further incentivize a hardline approach.
Resolving the long-standing border disputes, often exploited by Hezbollah as justification for its armed struggle, is crucial. However, any territorial concessions to Lebanon are politically untenable for the current Israeli government. For Lebanon, the weakness of the central state and the continued strength of Hezbollah render meaningful negotiations exceedingly difficult. The lack of clearly defined borders with both Syria and Israel remains a persistent source of instability.
Beyond Military Pressure: A Path Towards Sustainable Stability
Israeli military pressure alone will not resolve the underlying issues. A lasting solution requires a fundamental shift in approach, prioritizing diplomacy and a comprehensive, long-term stabilizing accord. The key lies in strengthening the Lebanese state, empowering it to assert its sovereignty and become the sole legitimate holder of arms. This necessitates a concerted effort from the US, alongside a broader regional coalition – potentially including Iran – to foster a more equitable distribution of pressure and incentives.
Ultimately, the future of Lebanon, and the prevention of another devastating conflict, hinges on an internal Lebanese political process that prioritizes state-building and national reconciliation. Without a strong and stable Lebanon, the cycle of violence will inevitably continue. What steps will regional and international actors take to support this crucial process, or will the region once again succumb to the familiar pattern of escalation?
