Israel: Political Forecast – July 2025

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Israel Warns Iran on Enriched Uranium During operation Rising Lion

Jerusalem, Israel – Prime Minister benjamin netanyahu provided insight into Israel’s strategic posture regarding Iran’s nuclear program, specifically addressing the issue of enriched uranium in the aftermath of Operation Rising Lion.

The Prime minister remarked that a key element Israel did not directly engage with during the operation was Iran’s enriched uranium. However, he stressed the imperative for Iran to understand that such material must remain under control.

“The one thing that we didn’t deal with that we knew we didn’t deal with [during Operation Rising Lion] was the enriched uranium,” Netanyahu stated on July 9, 2025. He emphasized the message conveyed to Iran: “So it has to be made clear to them [ie, Iran] and I think it has been, that they don’t get this enriched uranium.”

Netanyahu elaborated on the significance of enriched uranium, describing it as a critical component for nuclear proliferation. He noted that while it is a necessary element for a nuclear weapon, it is not the sole determinant.

What are the key domestic factors that could lead to early elections in Israel before late 2025/early 2026?

The Netanyahu Government: Stability and Challenges

as of July 2025,Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister,leading a coalition government still largely defined by its right-wing and religious constituents. However, the political landscape is increasingly fragile. While the immediate aftermath of the October 7th attacks saw a surge in national unity, that cohesion has demonstrably fractured. Key challenges include:

Judicial Reform: The controversial judicial overhaul plans, paused but not abandoned, continue to be a major source of domestic division.Public protests, though smaller than in 2023 and early 2024, persist, fueled by concerns over democratic backsliding and the rule of law.

Gaza Reconstruction & Security: The ongoing situation in Gaza remains a central issue. While a formal ceasefire is in place,sporadic violence and the slow pace of reconstruction efforts contribute to instability. The security of Israeli citizens in border communities remains a paramount concern.

International Relations: Israel’s relationship with key allies,particularly the United States,is under strain. Differing views on the Palestinian issue and the handling of the Gaza conflict have created friction. The recent world council of Churches “Israel-Palestine Declaration” and its use of the term “apartheid” (as reported by Israelnetz) have further elaborate diplomatic efforts.

Economic Concerns: Inflation, while moderating, remains a concern. The cost of living,particularly housing,continues to rise,fueling social unrest. The economic impact of the ongoing conflict and security concerns is significant.

The Opposition: A Fragmented force

The israeli opposition remains fragmented, hindering its ability to present a credible alternative to the netanyahu government.

Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid: Remains the largest opposition party, advocating for a centrist platform focused on economic reform and strengthening democratic institutions. Though, Lapid struggles to broaden his appeal beyond his existing base.

Benny Gantz’s National Unity Party: Gantz’s brief inclusion in the emergency government following October 7th boosted his profile, but his subsequent departure has left his party searching for a clear direction. He is positioning himself as a pragmatic alternative, but faces challenges in differentiating himself from Lapid.

Left-Wing Parties: Meretz and Labor continue to represent the left-wing electorate, but their influence has waned significantly in recent years. They advocate for a two-state solution and greater social justice, but struggle to gain traction with a broader audience.

Key Political Trends to watch

Several key trends are shaping the Israeli political landscape:

Rise of Religious Zionism: The influence of Religious Zionist parties within the coalition is growing. Their agenda, focused on expanding settlements and strengthening religious law, is increasingly shaping government policy.

Erosion of Public Trust: Public trust in political institutions has declined significantly in recent years, fueled by corruption scandals and political polarization.

Demographic Shifts: Israel’s demographic composition is changing, with a growing Arab population and an increasing number of secular Israelis. These shifts are impacting the political landscape and challenging traditional power structures.

Impact of the Diaspora: The views of the Jewish diaspora, particularly in the United States, continue to influence Israeli politics. Concerns over democratic values and human rights are increasingly prominent in diaspora communities.

The Palestinian Arena: Limited Progress

The palestinian political situation remains deeply challenging.

Palestinian Authority (PA): The PA continues to struggle with legitimacy and effectiveness. Its control over the West Bank is limited, and it faces ongoing financial difficulties.

Hamas: Despite the ceasefire,Hamas remains a powerful force in Gaza. Its commitment to armed resistance and its rejection of Israel’s right to exist continue to be major obstacles to peace.

Two-State Solution: The prospect of a two-state solution appears increasingly remote. The expansion of Israeli settlements, the ongoing conflict in Gaza, and the lack of a credible negotiating partner on the palestinian side all contribute to this pessimism.

Security Concerns & Regional Dynamics

Israel faces a complex security habitat.

Iran: Iran remains a major threat, through its support for Hezbollah and Hamas, and its nuclear program.

Lebanon: The situation on the northern border with Lebanon remains tense, with the potential for escalation.

Syria: The ongoing civil war in Syria continues to pose a security challenge, with the potential for spillover effects.

Regional Normalization: Efforts to normalize relations with Arab states continue, but progress is slow. The ongoing conflict with the Palestinians remains a major obstacle to broader regional peace.

Potential Election Scenarios (Late 2025/Early 2026)

While Netanyahu has demonstrated resilience, several factors could trigger early elections:

1. Coalition Collapse: Internal divisions within the coalition, particularly over judicial reform or gaza policy, could lead to its collapse.
2. No-Confidence Vote: A accomplished no-confidence vote in the Knesset could force Netanyahu to call elections.
3. Security Escalation: A major security escalation, particularly in Gaza