Fitch Ratings affirmed Italy’s credit rating at ‘BBB+’ with a stable outlook on Thursday, March 13, 2026, citing the country’s diversified and high value-added economy and the stability provided by its membership in the European Union and Eurozone.
The agency’s decision, initially announced September 19, 2025, acknowledges Italy’s strengths, including “high levels of wealth and comparatively solid governance indicators,” according to a statement released by Fitch. However, the rating remains constrained by the nation’s “very high public debt and limited medium-term growth prospects,” which restrict fiscal flexibility and the ability to reduce debt.
Fitch noted that Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 137.1% in 2025, slightly above previous forecasts of 136.5%. The agency projects this ratio will peak at 137.8% of GDP in 2026 before beginning a downward trajectory, anticipating at least a 1 percentage point reduction annually starting in 2027, driven by sustained primary surpluses and moderate nominal growth.
The deficit-to-GDP ratio decreased to 3.1% in 2025, from 3.4% in 2024, aligning with government expectations and Fitch’s projections. Further moderate improvements are expected, with the deficit forecast at 2.9% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.
“Italy’s very high public debt remains the key constraint on its rating, reflecting reduced fiscal space and high sensitivity to negative shocks to growth or interest rates,” Fitch stated. The agency’s assessment underscores the ongoing challenges Italy faces in balancing economic growth with fiscal responsibility within the framework of the Eurozone.
