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The 58th at Chukyo Racecourse on the 13thGolden Squid Rewards(GII, turf 2000m) will be held.Won last year’s Osaka HaiLei PapaleLast year’s Queen Elizabeth Cup championAkaiitoEscape the previous run, Shirafuji S, win and gain momentum with 4 consecutive victoriesJack DollMade a good run in 3rd place at Kyoto KinenSunray pocketEtc. are scheduled to run.
Here, we will read the development from the good running conditions of the Kinko Sho and the assumed members, and will be a hint of the betting ticket.Dangerous popular horseAsSunray pocketI want to take up.
■ 7-year-old horse that has reached a fulfilling period
First of all, the front run of Sunray PocketKyoto MemorialTo analyze.
Perhaps because it was a clockwise turn for the first time in regarding two years, I mightn’t get a position following starting and proceeded with horse racing from 8th behind. He accumulated his legs up to the four corners, aimed at Geraldina, who had been out in the last, and drove in with the last leg of 33.08, and entered the third line. Despite the harsh development that the front remained, the content that rushed to the third place on its own was stronger than it looks.
In addition to the achievement of 4th place once morest a strong opponent in the Emperor’s Award, Autumn, Japan C, even from the recent situation where self-reinforcement is remarkable as a 7-year-old horse, “Maintaining the top class end legs on medium-distance routes, stable results regardless of conditions It can be evaluated as “a veteran who can leave behind.” In addition to the fact that Jockey Sameshima Katsuma will continue to ride this time, and given that he has won two wins under the conditions of the Chukyo Shiba 2000m, it is natural that expectations for a good run will increase this time as well.
However, at the Kinko Sho, the results of the horses that were in the previous Hanshin Racecourse were[0-0-1-11]with a win rate of 0.0%, a consecutive win rate of 0.0%, and a double win rate of 9.1%. In addition, the race level was high considering the fact that African Gold, Tagano Diamante, etc., who were clearly inferior achievements, were allowed to come first, and the 6th horse Red Galan took on the popularity in the next run but lost to the 4th place. Since it cannot be evaluated as a horse, a little anxiety remains in the Sunray pocket.
■ Depending on the pace, the top performers can also run ants
Next, let’s analyze the winning time and lap time of the Kinko Sho in the last 5 years.
▼ Lap time
・【2021】13.0-11.5-12.6-12.4-11.9-11.7-11.9-12.1-11.9-12.8
・【2020】12.9-11.8-13.2-13.0-12.7-12.4-11.8-11.2-11.1-11.5
・【2019】12.7-10.8-12.1-12.5-12.9-12.3-12.2-11.6-11.3-11.7
・【2018】13.3-11.9-13.1-12.9-11.8-12.4-12.0-11.4-11.2-11.6
・【2017】12.6-11.3-12.6-12.2-11.7-11.7-12.0-11.9-11.4-11.8
Last year’s Kinko Sho, which was held at Shigebaba, was won by Gibeon, who escaped at a middle pace. The three horses that entered the line dropped to a slow pace in the latter half of 36 seconds to 38 seconds, and were running well with a race like stepping on an acceleration lap from the 3rd floor of the second half.
This is due to the course shape of Chukyo Shiba 2000m, the distance to the first corner is as short as regarding 400m, and it is easier for the runaway horse to take the initiative in the race because it is easier to determine the formation in the order of the fastest gate and ten. It is possible that it has become.
As the Niigata Daishoten (1st place), which was the only one to win following the Sunray Pocket entered the open, won the championship by pulling out the last leg from the back in the high pace of 57 seconds 1 passing 1000m in the first half, basically it is a high pace. A horse that likes. Although it was revealed at the Kyoto Kinen in the previous race, in the race where the passing time of 1000m in the first half was dropped to a slow pace that took more than 1 minute, the instantaneous power from the slow pace so that it might not run well in the betting ticket even once. If it becomes a game, the possibility of a good run will be low, so even if you insert it, you can expect the result to be a bulletin board.
■ Remaining rich due to the transition to March
Next, we will analyze the good run pattern of the Kinko Sho from the ranking on the 3rd floor.
・1st place[3-1-1-7]25.0% win rate, 33.3% streak rate, 41.7% return win rate
・2nd place[2-1-3-9]13.3% win rate, 20.0% streak rate, 40.0% return win rate
・3rd place[2-1-2-4]22.2% win rate, 33.3% streak rate, 55.6% return win rate
・4th and 5th place[0-3-3-13]0.0% win rate, 15.8% streak rate, 31.6% return win rate
・6th place～【3-4-2-64】 4.1% win rate, 9.6% streak rate, 12.3% return win rate
In this way, the fastest climbing horse has the most 3 wins, and the win rate, consecutive rate, and double win rate are all high, but the escape / leading horse of “6th place or lower” also has 3 wins and 7 consecutive wins. It has achieved good results with times.
In addition to the influence of the course shape of Chukyo Shiba 2000m mentioned above, this is due to the fact that it will be held in the opening week following the holding time has changed in March, so the leading horses that have successfully run around the inn remain. The fact that it is a riding ground where you can do things may also have an effect.
Sunray Pocket climbed from 9th on the 4th corner in the previous run and pulled out the last leg in 2nd place, 7th on the 4th corner in Japan C before the 2nd run, and from 6th on the 4th corner in the Tenno Sho and Autumn before the 3rd run. It is difficult to get a position in the short run as it marks the last leg of the 5th place. In other words, Sunray Pocket does not correspond to the sweet spot in the Kinko Sho in the opening week. For this reason as well, it may be necessary to downplay it more than it is popular.
For the above reasonsSunray pocketIs an evaluation of erasing. In “Part 2”, I will introduce the favorite to replace Sunray Pocket and the conclusion including 4 Anomas.
Sentence, Kouki Nishitate (SPREAD editorial department)
