Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass maintains a lead in her bid for reelection, though a new poll reveals more than half of likely voters view her unfavorably. The survey, released Sunday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, shows Bass with 25% support, whereas City Councilmember Nithya Raman garnered 17% and conservative reality TV star Spencer Pratt trailed with 14%. The Los Angeles mayoral election is scheduled for June 2, and this poll offers an early snapshot of the race.
The findings highlight a significant challenge for Bass, despite her current lead. 56% of those polled expressed an unfavorable view of the mayor, compared to 31% who view her favorably. Approximately 26% of voters remain undecided, suggesting a fluid electorate as the primary election approaches. The poll surveyed 840 likely voters between March 9 and 15, providing a crucial data point as candidates vie for the city’s top office.
Palisades Fire and Public Perception
Bass has faced criticism, particularly regarding her handling of the devastating Palisades fire in January 2025, which resulted in 12 fatalities and widespread property damage. Her initial response was described as unsteady, and she has since been targeted by opponents, including Pratt and others, over the Los Angeles Fire Department’s management of the crisis and the pace of recovery efforts. Allegations have also surfaced concerning a potential attempt to downplay the severity of the fire in an after-action report. The Bass campaign has emphasized declining homelessness and crime rates as successes during her first term, stating, “It’s clear Angelenos are frustrated by decades of inaction on major issues. This campaign will show that it’s Karen Bass who changed the direction on these issues and that others running responded with reports while Karen Bass took action.”
A Wide-Open Race and Shifting Dynamics
The mayoral race took shape in early February when Raman, previously an ally of Bass, launched a challenge against the incumbent just hours before the filing deadline. Several other prominent figures, including billionaire developer Rick Caruso and L.A. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, ultimately decided against entering the race. Former Los Angeles schools Superintendent Austin Beutner also withdrew from the contest following the death of his daughter. This series of decisions has resulted in a field of candidates largely unknown to many Angelenos.
Former City Councilmember Mike Bonin, who now leads the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at Cal State L.A., described the campaign as “staid and quiet,” noting that candidates are primarily focused on fundraising and due diligence. Bonin emphasized the importance of the gap between Raman and Pratt, suggesting they are likely to compete for the opportunity to face Bass in a November runoff if no candidate secures a majority in the June primary. “While voters are clearly looking for an alternative [to Bass], they haven’t chosen one,” Bonin said.
Demographic Breakdown of Voter Support
The poll revealed distinct demographic patterns in voter support. Bass maintains strong backing from Black voters, with 43% support, while Raman has 6% within that demographic. Raman leads among Asian and Pacific Islander voters, securing 34% support compared to Bass’s 10%. Age also appears to be a factor, with Bass performing better among older voters and Raman and Rae Huang appealing to younger demographics. Huang garnered 19% support from voters aged 18-29.
Affordable housing emerged as the top priority for Los Angeles voters when considering the next mayor, followed by improvements to streets, sidewalks, and streetlights, and addressing homelessness. Regarding policing, 39% of Angelenos believe the LAPD should increase in size, 29% favor maintaining the current size, and 19% advocate for a reduction. Bass has called for increasing the number of police officers, while Raman believes the current force of approximately 8,700 officers is adequate.
What’s Next in the L.A. Mayoral Race
Political science professor Dan Schnur described the poll results as “borderline catastrophic” for Bass, given the relative anonymity of her challengers. He noted that her struggles against a less-established field of opponents “bodes very, very poorly for her.” Schnur suggested that Bass’s position is currently bolstered by the absence of more prominent candidates. As the June 2 primary approaches, the focus will likely intensify on Raman’s ability to gain name recognition and present a compelling alternative to Bass. The coming months will be critical in shaping the narrative and determining the final contenders for the mayoralty of Los Angeles.
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