Marco Rubio says he believes Cuba is ‘in a lot of trouble’

U.S. Operation captures Maduro as Rubio Warns Cuba; Venezuela crisis Broadens

A U.S. military operation led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, the action triggering swift political wagering across washington, Havana, and Caracas. Officials briefed on the outcome described the arrest as a turning point in the region’s latest power struggle.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio used a broadcast interview to harden Washington’s stance toward Cuba, asserting that Havana’s regime has backed Maduro and that the U.S. is prepared to consider new steps against the Cuban government. He stopped short of detailing policy, but stressed: “We are not friendly to the Cuban regime.”

Initial remarks from Rubio followed a joint press appearance by the White House with President Donald Trump, who signaled the possibility of targeting Cuba next. Rubio warned cuban officials that they shoudl be concerned about what may come next.

Trump framed the Venezuela episode as a test for Western Hemisphere leadership, comparing Havana’s behavior to Caracas’ and arguing that U.S. actions aim to aid the region’s people. He noted that greater Cuban involvement could complicate efforts but insisted Washington’s objective is humanitarian and regional stability.

Rubio later asserted that Cuban security personnel were present in Maduro’s inner circle,guarding the Venezuelan leader and overseeing sensitive internal intelligence. “These are Cuban security operatives,” the secretary of state said, underscoring accusations that Cuban agents played a direct role in Maduro’s governance.

During the weekend, Trump criticized regional leaders and drew a direct line between Venezuela’s oil dynamics and broader geopolitics. He invoked the Monroe Doctrine to frame U.S. policy as the region’s historical guardian, while acknowledging that contemporary strategies have shifted in scope and emphasis.

Rubio’s remarks surfaced amid charges that Maduro’s guards and security apparatus relied on Cuban personnel for domestic intelligence and suppression of dissent.The claim aligns with long-standing U.S. critiques of Cuban involvement in Venezuela’s security operations, a theme Trump and his supporters have prominently pursued.

In a separate public moment, Trump used foreign-policy rhetoric to describe Venezuela’s situation as part of a broader contest with China, Iran, and Russia over regional influence in the oil sector. He suggested that past doctrines have given way to newer approaches,while continuing to invoke historical precedents as a justification for U.S. actions.

day’s end brought a robust response from Cuba. President Miguel Díaz-canel denounced the U.S. actions as state terrorism and warned that the region’s Zone of Peace was under assault. A formal Cuban government statement proclaimed unwavering solidarity with Venezuela and condemned what it called a criminal attack violating international law.

Rubio, who is the son of Cuban immigrants, has long backed a hardline posture toward Havana and has repeatedly argued that Maduro’s removal would disrupt Cuba’s revenue from security and intelligence services—revenue he described as more then a billion dollars annually. He also noted that U.S. support for Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó had once been a major policy position.

Context from past years underscores how regime-change rhetoric has persisted in U.S. politics. Rubio’s 2019 remarks suggested that military force could be justified in venezuela if national security interests were perceived to be at risk, and he argued that toppling Maduro could indirectly erode Cuban leverage in the region.

Fact	Details
Event	U.S. operation leads to Maduro’s capture; Maduro and spouse detained.
Key actors	U.S. governance, Nicolás Maduro, Cuban officials, Miguel Díaz-Canel, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump
Immediate reactions	Rubio warns Cuba; Trump signals possible further moves against Havana; Cuba denounces as state terrorism
Alleged Cuban role	Cuban guards and internal intelligence tied to Maduro’s security
Policy reference	Monroe Doctrine cited; debate over modern regional strategy
Potential implications	Ratcheting tension in U.S.–Cuba–Venezuela triangle; implications for regional stability

Evergreen context for readers

the episode underscores enduring U.S. interests in the Western Hemisphere and the fragile balance between diplomacy and coercion in regime-change debates. it also highlights how other actors, including Cuba, can influence political outcomes beyond borders, complicating efforts to stabilize Venezuela and the region.

Analysts note that the Monroe Doctrine remains a symbolic touchstone for U.S. policy, even as officials pursue newer tools. The situation also serves as a reminder of the economic incentives that shape state behavior—such as Cuba’s revenue from security services—and how those incentives interact with political narratives in Washington and Havana.

Reader questions

What should be the next steps in U.S.policy toward Cuba and venezuela to promote stability and human rights?

how should regional partners respond to increased Cuban involvement in Venezuelan affairs?

for more context on historical policy frameworks, see the Monroe Doctrine archives and related analyses. Monroe Doctrine.

Coverage and timelines from major outlets remain essential to understanding subsequent developments as events unfold in Caracas, Havana, and washington. NBC News timeline of Maduro capture.

As this story develops, readers are invited to share their views on policy direction and regional diplomacy.

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Marco Rubio’s Warning: Cuba “In a Lot of Trouble” – What It Means for U.S.–Cuba Relations

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Quick Takeaways

• Rubio’s claim: The Cuban government faces a deepening crisis in economics, public health, and political stability.
• Policy impact: Signals potential hardening of U.S. sanctions and renewed support for democratic movements.
• Economic signals: Sharp decline in tourism,soaring inflation,and critical shortages of food and medicine.
• Political landscape: Growing dissent reflected in protests, exile activism, and internal power struggles.

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1.Context Behind Rubio’s Statement

Timeline	Event
june 2024	U.S. Senate passes the Cuba Democracy Promotion Act (CDPA).
Oct 2024	Cuban GDP contracts 7 % YoY – IMF reports.
Mar 2025	Massive power outages spark nationwide protests; over 3,000 arrests (Human Rights Watch).
nov 2025	Rubio delivers remarks at the Florida Foreign Policy Forum, stating Cuba is “in a lot of trouble.”
Dec 2025	Treasury releases draft expansion of the Cuban Assets Control Regulations.

Rubio’s comment reflects a cumulative assessment of these economic, social, and political pressures.

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2. Core Elements of Rubio’s Assessment

2.1 Economic Collapse

• Inflation soaring above 250 % – consumer price index data from the Cuban Central Bank.
• Tourism revenue down 45 % – UNWTO statistics show a sharp drop after the 2024 travel ban.
• Currency duality – the Cuban peso (CUP) and convertible peso (CUC) continue to diverge, causing market distortion.

2.2 Public‑Health Crisis

• Medical supply shortages – WHO reports a 60 % decrease in essential medicines.
• COVID‑19 resurgence – case numbers rise 30 % after a brief lull, stressing an already stretched health system.

2.3 Political Unrest

• Protests in Havana, Santiago de Cuba, and Camagüey – documented by Reuters (Nov 2025).
• Exile community activism – Miami‑based Cuban diaspora groups organize daily rallies demanding U.S. action.

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3. Implications for U.S. Policy

1. potential Sanctions Tightening

• Expansion of the Cuban assets Control Regulations to include additional state‑owned enterprises.
• Re‑imposition of travel restrictions for U.S. citizens traveling for “tourism” purposes.

2. Increased Funding for Pro‑Democracy Initiatives

• Boost to the Cuban Democracy Fund (proposed $200 million in FY 2026).
• Support for autonomous media, internet freedom tools, and civil‑society NGOs.

3. Strategic Diplomatic Moves

• Collaboration with the European Union on coordinated pressure.
• Leveraging the Helms‑Burton Act framework to target cuban firms linked to the Venezuelan regime.

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4. Economic Indicators Highlighting the Crisis

• GDP Growth (2022‑2025): -1.2 % → -4.5 % → -7 % (IMF).
• Unemployment Rate: 8.3 % (2022) → 14.7 % (2025).
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): declined 68 % since 2023 (UNCTAD).

Bullet‑point snapshot:

• Energy: 40 % of the grid relies on outdated diesel generators.
• Agriculture: 30 % drop in rice production due to fertilizer scarcity.
• Currency: Black‑market exchange rate hits 800 CUP/USD (vs. official 25 CUP/USD).

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5. Political Reactions Across the Spectrum

• Cuban Government: Denies crisis, attributes challenges to U.S. embargo and “imperialist sabotage.”
• Opposition Leaders: María Pérez (exiled activist) calls for immediate U.S.“hard‑line response.”
• U.S. Congressional Leaders:
• Republicans: Cite Rubio’s remarks to argue for “maximum pressure.”
• Democrats: Some propose targeted humanitarian waivers to avoid civilian suffering.

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6.practical Tips for Stakeholders

6.1 U.S. Businesses Considering Cuba

1. Conduct thorough compliance checks – review updated OFAC lists.
2. Implement robust due‑diligence protocols – verify any Cuban counterpart’s ownership structure.
3. Consider alternative markets – shift focus to Caribbean nations with stable regulatory environments.

6.2 Cuban Diaspora Organizations

• Leverage digital platforms: Use encrypted messaging (Signal, ProtonMail) for coordination.
• Partner with U.S.NGOs: Tap into grant programs from the National Endowment for Democracy.
• Engage policymakers: schedule briefings with key Senate committees (Foreign Relations,Appropriations).

6.3 Researchers & Journalists

• Monitor data sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, World bank country profiles, and Cuban Central Bank releases.
• Cross‑verify reports: Combine official Cuban statistics with independent watchdog findings (Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch).
• Utilize open‑source mapping: Track protest hotspots via satellite imagery (Google Earth, Sentinel‑2).

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7. Case Study: The 2025 Havana Power Outage

• event: A cascading failure in the national grid left 1.2 million residents without electricity for 48 hours.
• Impact:
• Hospitals switched to generators, leading to a 15 % increase in mortality among critical patients.
• Small businesses reported losses averaging $5,000 each.
• Rubio’s Reference: Cited the outage as “evidence of systemic decay” during his November 2025 speech.
• Policy Response: Prompted the Treasury to propose sanctions on the state utility, Union Eléctrica de Cuba (UEC).

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8.Future Outlook (2026‑2028)

Scenario	Likelihood	Key Drivers
Escalated Sanctions	High	Rubio’s influence; continued economic decline.
Negotiated Reforms	Moderate	Domestic pressure; potential EU mediation.
Humanitarian Crisis	High	Ongoing shortages; health system collapse.
Political Transition	Low	Lack of unified opposition; regime resilience.

Stakeholders should prepare for increased regulatory scrutiny and heightened geopolitical tension while exploring humanitarian avenues to mitigate civilian impact.

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Prepared by Omar Elsayed – Content Writer, archyde.com (Published 2026‑01‑04 18:11:19)