The Looming Cancer Screening Crisis: How Policy Changes Could Reverse Decades of Progress
A chilling forecast is emerging from cancer research: the hard-won gains in early detection and survival rates are under threat. New modeling data suggests that over 1 million Americans could lose access to potentially life-saving cancer screenings within just two years, directly linked to changes enacted by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This isn’t a distant possibility; it’s a rapidly approaching reality that demands immediate attention.
The One Big Beautiful Bill and its Impact on Cancer Screening
Signed into law in July 2025, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act significantly altered Medicaid funding and introduced work requirements for beneficiaries. While proponents argued for fiscal responsibility, researchers are now projecting a devastating ripple effect on preventative healthcare. A study published in JAMA Oncology (Shubeck SP, et al. 2026) estimates that 7.5 million Medicaid enrollees eligible for cancer screening could lose coverage, leading to a substantial decline in screenings for breast, colorectal, and lung cancers.
“The frustration is immense,” says Dr. Adrian Diaz, a general surgical oncology fellow at the University of Chicago. “We’re making incredible strides in cancer treatment – personalized medicine, immunotherapies – but those advancements are meaningless if we can’t even ensure people have access to basic, affordable preventative care.”
The Numbers Paint a Grim Picture
The projected impact is stark. Researchers estimate 679,745 fewer colorectal cancer screenings, 405,706 fewer mammograms, and 67,213 fewer lung cancer screenings within the first two years. This translates to approximately 1,055 undetected breast cancers (with 156 at stage III or IV), 748 undetected colorectal cancers (105 at stage III or IV), and 538 undetected lung cancers (65 at stage III or IV). These undetected cancers are projected to result in an estimated 70 deaths from breast cancer, 50 from colorectal cancer, and 35 from lung cancer.
The Rise of Late-Stage Diagnoses
The consequences extend beyond these immediate numbers. A shift towards later-stage diagnoses is almost guaranteed. As Dr. Diaz explains, “We’re going to see patients presenting with more advanced cancers – palpable masses, symptomatic anemia – conditions that are far more difficult and costly to treat, and often with significantly poorer outcomes.” This trend is particularly concerning given the documented increase in early-onset cancers in recent years.
Beyond the Initial Impact: A Systemic Threat
The study’s findings focus on breast, colorectal, and lung cancers, but the implications are far broader. The loss of Medicaid coverage will undoubtedly affect access to screenings for other malignancies as well. Furthermore, the impact extends to patients already undergoing cancer treatment, who may be forced to delay or discontinue their regimens due to coverage gaps. This creates a cascading effect, potentially undoing years of progress in cancer care.
State-Level Disparities and Potential Solutions
The impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill isn’t uniform across the country. Researchers are now investigating why some states are projected to experience a more significant negative impact than others. Dr. Diaz and his colleagues are exploring state-level policies that could mitigate the federal changes, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to protect vulnerable populations. “It’s a rapidly changing environment, and a lot comes down to funding,” he notes, “but we hope to identify and codify proven policies that can help patients.”
Looking Ahead: A Call for Prioritization
The looming cancer screening crisis underscores a fundamental flaw in our healthcare system: the persistent gap between cutting-edge treatment and basic preventative care. While innovation continues to push the boundaries of what’s possible in cancer treatment, ensuring equitable access to screenings remains a critical, yet often overlooked, priority. The data is clear: investing in preventative care isn’t just a matter of healthcare policy; it’s a matter of life and death. What steps will policymakers take to reverse this dangerous trajectory and ensure that all Americans have access to the screenings they need to detect cancer early, when it’s most treatable?
