MLB Insiders Forecast Free Agent Contracts for Tucker and Schwarber

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September 12, 2025

As the Major League Baseball season winds down, attention is turning to the upcoming free agent market. While this year’s class lacks a generational talent like Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto, two players – Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker – are generating importent interest from teams across the league. Industry experts have weighed in, projecting potential contract values for both players.

Tucker’s market Value: A Complex Calculation

Kyle Tucker, the outfielder for the Chicago Cubs, has consistently demonstrated high performance, amassing 4.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) this season. Even though his offensive numbers experienced a slight dip from his career year, his underlying metrics remain strong. A recent calf strain has temporarily sidelined Tucker but has not diminished his overall appeal.

However, a significant slump in August, where he batted a mere .148 over 15 games, raised concerns. Despite a resurgence after returning to the lineup, the injury adds another layer of complexity to his evaluation.

Projected Contracts for Kyle Tucker

A survey of 20 scouts, executives, and agents revealed a wide range of projections for Tucker’s next contract. Here’s a breakdown:

Contract Tier	Projected Deals
Under $350 Million	11 years/$308M, 9 years/$315M (x2), 8 years/$320M, 9 years/$340M, 9 years/$342M
$350 – $399 Million	8 years/$352M, 10 years/$375M, 12 years/$375M, 11 years/$380M
$400 – $499 Million	10 years/$400M (x2), 11 years/$400M, 11 years/$418M, 10 years/$420M (x2), 10 years/$425M, 12 years/$425M, 10 years/$450M
$500+ Million	10 years/$500M, 12 years/$550M

The average projection landed at 10.1 years and $391.5 million, translating to an annual average value (AAV) of $38.8 million. The median projection was $390 million.

Finding direct comparable contracts proves challenging given Tucker’s consistent production, ranking 10th in baseball in WAR over the last five seasons.

Schwarber’s Power Potential, Age Considerations

Kyle Schwarber, currently with the Philadelphia Phillies, is enjoying a career year with 50 home runs, 123 RBIs, and a 4.5 WAR.However, his age – 33 in March – and limited defensive experience (only 13 games in the field over the past two seasons) present potential concerns for teams. While designated hitters in their 30s have often struggled to secure lucrative free agent deals, Schwarber’s historic power output this season sets him apart.

Projected Contracts for Kyle Schwarber

Experts anticipate a more modest contract for Schwarber compared to Tucker, reflecting his age and position. The projections are as follows:

Contract Tier	Projected Deals
Under $100 Million	4 years/$72M, 3 years/$90M
$100 – $125 Million	3 years/$100M, 4 years/$100M, 4 years/$110M (x2), 4 years/$112M (x3), 5 years/$118M, 4 years/$120M (x2), 3 years/$125M
$126 – $180 Million	4 years/$140M, 6 years/$150M, 4 years/$160M, 5 years/$160M, 4 years/$180M
$200+ Million	6 years/$200M, 7 years/$245M

The projected average contract is 4.3 years at $131.8 million, resulting in an AAV of $30.7 million. The median projection sits at $119 million.

Comparisons have been drawn to players like JD Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, and Freddie Freeman, but Schwarber’s unique combination of power and age presents a somewhat unprecedented situation.

Potential Suitors and Final Thoughts

The Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as a potential frontrunner for Kyle Tucker, with many industry insiders anticipating a strong pursuit. The Chicago Cubs, tucker’s current team, are considered less likely to win a bidding war. For Kyle Schwarber, a return to the Philadelphia Phillies is considered plausible, with multiple contenders expected to vie for his services as a designated hitter.

Did You Know? Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent extension with the Toronto Blue Jays, worth $500 million, has become a key reference point in evaluating Tucker’s market value.

Pro Tip: Teams considering Schwarber might structure the contract to include incentives or options to mitigate the risk associated with his age.

What factors do you believe will most influence Tucker’s final contract value? Do you think Schwarber’s home run total will outweigh concerns about his age in negotiations?

Understanding MLB Free Agency

Major League Baseball’s free agency system allows players with expiring contracts to negotiate with any team. This period,typically beginning after the World Series,is a crucial time for teams to reshape their rosters. The value of a free agent is determined by several factors, including age, performance statistics, position, and overall market conditions. Recent trends show increased investment in high-impact players, but teams must carefully consider long-term financial implications.

Frequently Asked Questions About MLB Free Agency

• What is a qualifying offer in MLB free agency? A qualifying offer is a one-year contract offered to free agents by their former team, based on a predetermined salary. If a player rejects the offer and signs with another team, his former team receives draft pick compensation.
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  What is the projected contract range for Kyle Tucker?

  Kyle Tucker: The Premium Outfield Prize

  Kyle Tucker’s impending free agency is arguably the biggest storyline heading into the offseason. the Houston Astros outfielder has consistently demonstrated a rare blend of power, speed, and defensive versatility. Insiders predict a fiercely competitive market,driving up his potential contract value.

  Projected Contract Range: $120 Million – $175 Million

  Several factors contribute to this high valuation:

  * Age & Performance: At 27,Tucker is entering his prime. His consistent .280+ batting average, 30+ home run potential, and gold Glove-caliber defense make him a cornerstone player.

  * Market Demand: Multiple teams – including the New York Yankees, Los angeles Dodgers, and San Francisco Giants – are expected to aggressively pursue Tucker. This bidding war will substantially inflate his price.

  * Scott Boras Depiction: Tucker is represented by Scott Boras, known for securing maximum value for his clients. Boras will undoubtedly aim for a record-breaking deal.

  * Comparable Contracts: Looking at recent outfielder contracts, like those of Mookie Betts ($365M) and Bryce Harper ($330M), provides a benchmark, though Tucker’s contract will likely fall below those figures due to differing market conditions and player profiles.

  Key teams in the Mix & Potential Offer Structures

  * New York Yankees: Desperate for offensive firepower, the Yankees could offer a 7-year deal in the $150-$160 million range, possibly with opt-out clauses.

  * Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers, always contenders, might structure a 8-year deal around $140-$150 million, emphasizing years over annual average value (AAV).

  * San Francisco Giants: with a need in the outfield and financial versatility, the Giants could present a competitive offer of 7 years, $130-$140 million.

  * Philadelphia Phillies: A dark horse contender, the Phillies could make a play if they miss out on othre targets, potentially offering a 6-year, $120 million deal.

  Kyle schwarber: Power Hitter Seeking Stability

  Kyle Schwarber, the Philadelphia Phillies’ power-hitting outfielder, is also a prominent name in the upcoming free agent class. While his consistency can be debated, his ability to change a game with one swing is undeniable.

  Projected Contract Range: $75 Million – $100 Million

  Schwarber’s contract projections are more nuanced then Tucker’s.

  * Power vs.Consistency: Schwarber’s 40+ home run seasons are enticing, but his high strikeout rate and occasional defensive lapses are concerns.

  * Age & Decline Curve: At 31,Schwarber is further along in his career than Tucker.Teams will factor in potential age-related decline.

  * Designated Hitter Market: The increasing value of designated hitters could benefit Schwarber, as teams prioritize offensive production over defensive versatility.

  * Phillies’ Potential Re-Sign: Philadelphia may attempt to re-sign Schwarber,but their financial commitments to other players could limit their offer.

  Potential Landing Spots & Contract Scenarios

  * Philadelphia phillies: A 4-year, $80-$90 million deal with a team option for a fifth year is a realistic scenario if the Phillies prioritize retaining his power.

  * Texas Rangers: The Rangers, coming off a World Series win, could seek to add another power bat to their lineup, potentially offering a 3-year, $75 million contract.

  * Seattle Mariners: The Mariners, looking to bolster their offense, might present a 4-year, $70-$80 million offer.

  * chicago Cubs: A return to Wrigley Field isn’t out of the question, with a potential 3-year, $65-$75 million deal.

  Impact of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA)

  The current MLB CBA plays a important role in free agent contract negotiations. the luxury tax threshold and competitive balance tax implications will heavily influence team spending. Teams exceeding the threshold face financial penalties,potentially limiting their ability to pursue top free agents. The qualifying offer system also impacts free agency, potentially deterring teams from signing players who require draft pick compensation.

  Historical Trends in Outfielder Contracts

  Analyzing past free agent contracts for outfielders provides valuable context. In recent years,the market for premium outfielders has consistently increased,driven by the demand for offensive production and defensive versatility. Players like George Springer ($150M) and Kevin Kiermaier ($75M) set benchmarks for their respective skillsets. However, economic factors and team-specific needs can significantly impact contract values.

  Benefits of Accurate Free Agent Predictions

  Accurate free agent contract predictions offer several benefits:

  * For Fans: Provides insight into team strategies and potential roster changes.

  * For Teams: Helps inform negotiation strategies and avoid overpaying for players.

  * For Agents: Allows for realistic expectations and effective client representation.

  * For Media: Drives engagement and generates compelling content.