Mortgage rates in the United States climbed above 6% this week, reversing a recent dip below that threshold, as escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled inflation concerns and shifted investor behavior, according to data released Monday by Mortgage News Daily.
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate rose to 6.12%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous day. This abrupt change comes just days after rates briefly fell below 6% for the first time since 2022, a development that had begun to stir renewed interest in the housing market.
The shift is directly linked to rising crude oil prices, driven by fears of supply disruptions amid the conflict, and a corresponding increase in the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed approximately seven basis points to 4.03% following the weekend’s events, according to market analysis. This movement in Treasury yields directly impacts rate sheets across the mortgage industry.
Prior to the recent geopolitical developments, the 30-year fixed rate had fallen to 5.98% as of February 26, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. This decline had begun to rebuild pipelines for lenders, which had been depressed throughout 2025, and prompted cautious increases in capacity for the spring market.
Experts are divided on whether the current increase in mortgage rates represents a temporary fluctuation or a more sustained trend. Some suggest the climb may be a “temporary blip,” while others acknowledge the potential for a more durable impact on borrowing costs. The conflict’s duration and its broader effect on global economic stability will be key determinants.
The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign, beginning in 2022, previously drove mortgage rates as high as 6-7%, significantly impacting housing affordability and sidelining potential buyers. Lower rates are considered crucial for revitalizing the housing market and boosting sales, particularly as home prices remain elevated.
The recent volatility underscores the sensitivity of mortgage rates to geopolitical events and investor sentiment. While conciliatory statements from Washington and Tehran have tempered some demand for Treasury bonds as a safe haven, the underlying risk premium remains elevated. If higher energy prices and continued geopolitical risk maintain the 10-year Treasury yield above 4%, the recent improvement in mortgage rates may stall or even partially reverse.
