Myanmar’s Election: A Pragmatic Step or a Facade for Military Rule?
With inflation soaring to 34% and basic necessities becoming unaffordable for millions, Myanmar’s recent election – held under the shadow of military control – isn’t about choosing a future, but about surviving the present. While widely condemned internationally, the vote represents a complex calculation for a population exhausted by conflict and economic hardship, and a potential, albeit limited, shift in the balance of power within a deeply entrenched military regime.
The Illusion of Choice and the Pragmatism of Participation
The election, orchestrated by the State Administration Council (SAC), Myanmar’s ruling junta, has been dismissed by many as a sham. The National League for Democracy, led by the jailed Aung San Suu Kyi, has boycotted the process, and the National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s shadow government in exile, denounces participation as collaboration with the enemy. Yet, some opposition figures, like veteran pro-democracy activist Ko Ko Gyi, are contesting the election. His rationale? A parliament, even one constrained by military oversight, could offer a platform to divert some power away from Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. This isn’t a belief in the election’s legitimacy, but a recognition that, as Ko Ko Gyi bluntly asks, “What’s the better alternative?”
Navigating a Landscape of Limited Options
This pragmatic approach highlights a critical reality: removing the military from Myanmar’s political landscape isn’t a short-term prospect. Amara Thiha, a non-resident fellow with the Stimson Centre, suggests a sense of “fatigue” has set in, even within the SAC itself. The junta, facing widespread resistance and international condemnation, may see a nominally functioning parliament as a way to project stability, even if it’s merely a veneer. The key question is whether this parliament can genuinely exert influence, or if it will simply rubber-stamp the military’s decisions.
Economic Collapse and the Human Cost of Conflict
The political maneuvering unfolds against a backdrop of deepening economic crisis. Since the 2020 coup, Myanmar’s economy has contracted by 9%. The military’s financing of its war efforts – estimated at $21.3 billion printed in kyat – has fueled runaway inflation. This isn’t just about statistics; it’s about families struggling to afford eggs and cooking oil. Beyond the economic hardship, the human cost is staggering. Over 3.5 million people are internally displaced due to ongoing conflict, and brutal airstrikes continue to target civilian populations. Access to basic services like electricity – limited to eight hours a day in major cities like Yangon – and healthcare is severely compromised, raising concerns about the spread of diseases like malaria beyond Myanmar’s borders.
The Rise of Local Parties and a Shift in Resistance Strategies
While the major national parties face boycotts or repression, smaller, locally-focused parties are emerging. Candidates like Kyaw Min Htet of the People’s Pioneer Party, and Htet Htet Soe Oo, running for the lower house, represent a new generation of politicians advocating for “reconstruction, rehabilitation, and recovery.” Interestingly, both acknowledge the futility of armed revolution, having witnessed its devastating consequences firsthand. Their focus is on working within the system, however flawed, to address the immediate needs of their communities. This represents a subtle but significant shift in resistance strategies, from armed conflict to political engagement.
Dialogue and Negotiation: A Path Forward?
Htet Htet Soe Oo’s call for “dialogue and negotiation” encapsulates this evolving approach. The belief is that progress, however incremental, is more likely to be achieved through engagement than through continued confrontation. This doesn’t imply acceptance of the junta’s legitimacy, but rather a recognition that a purely oppositional stance may be unsustainable in the long run. The challenge lies in finding common ground with a military regime that has consistently demonstrated a disregard for democratic principles.
Looking Ahead: Incremental Change and the Risk of Entrenchment
The outcome of this election is unlikely to fundamentally alter Myanmar’s political landscape. However, it could create space for limited reforms and a gradual shift in power dynamics. The key will be whether the newly elected parliament can leverage its position to advocate for economic relief, protect civilian rights, and initiate a meaningful dialogue with the military. The risk, of course, is that the election will simply serve to entrench the military’s control and further erode democratic institutions. The international community’s response – particularly from key players like China and ASEAN – will be crucial in shaping Myanmar’s future. The Stimson Center provides ongoing analysis of the geopolitical factors influencing Myanmar’s trajectory.
What are your predictions for the future of Myanmar’s political landscape? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
