Nasdaq 100: Elliott Wave Analysis Amidst Bullish Momentum

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NASDAQ 100 Navigates Elliott Wave Forecast: Key levels to Watch

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has recently demonstrated remarkable adherence to a specific Elliott Wave (EW) principle forecast, offering valuable insights for traders and investors. The core expectation was for the index to reach a notable peak around the $22,237 mark, a common target for a Wave III/C. This projection suggested the index was undergoing a Wave IV correction, with an ideal bottom around $20,995, paving the way for a Wave V extension to approximately $23,095 (the 200.0% Fibonacci extension).

Fast forward to recent trading activity, the NDX experienced a peak on June 11th at $22,041, followed by a dip to $21,532 on June 23rd. Crucially, the index then surged to a new all-time high (ATH) of $22,915 yesterday. This trajectory closely mirrored the forecasted Wave III, IV, and V progression. The realized highs and lows came within striking distance of the ideal EW targets, underscoring the efficacy of a well-applied EW analysis. While the Wave IV correction proved slightly less pronounced than “ideal,” the prevailing sentiment in bullish markets often sees downside retracements offering limited opportunity.

To aid in navigating these shifting market dynamics, specific warning levels were established for bullish sentiment. These levels act as crucial indicators for traders to stay aligned with the prevailing trend. The first alert, or “radar lock,” was set at $22,733. This was followed by a “shot across the bow” at $22,587, and a third warning, signaling a potential significant downturn, at $22,386. A breach of the $21,532 level, considered the point where the primary bullish thesis would be invalidated, would necessitate a shift to an alternative EW count. These pre-defined levels are instrumental in keeping market participants on the correct side of trades, nonetheless of minor deviations or external news events.

The importance of understanding one’s position within the market’s cyclical waves cannot be overstated, as it cultivates realistic expectations. For traders, identifying the most opportune waves, such as Wave III or Wave C, is paramount. In this instance, the expansive Wave III (green W-3/c) is nearing its conclusion. Despite reaching the projected target zone and exhibiting negative divergences on key technical indicators like the RSI5, MACD, and Money Flow, ther remains no definitive, price-based signal confirming the wave’s termination.Consequently, the market position remains unchanged.

While the possibility of an extension from the May 26th and June 23rd lows cannot be entirely discounted, the expectation is for the green Wave III/C to conclude in the coming days. Elliott Wave analysis, being fundamentally driven by price action, removes the need for subjective guesswork. Instead, adherence to the established warning levels provides objective signals for the commencement of the next corrective phase, the green Wave IV.

How might real-time market data from platforms like Nasdaq Data Link refine Elliott Wave analysis for the nasdaq 100?

Understanding the Current Nasdaq 100 Trend

The Nasdaq 100 has demonstrated robust bullish momentum throughout 2025, driven largely by the technology sector’s continued growth and positive economic indicators. Analyzing this movement through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory can provide valuable insights into potential future price action. Currently, the prevailing sentiment suggests we are well into a critically important uptrend, but identifying the specific wave structure is crucial for informed trading decisions. Key terms traders are searching for include “Nasdaq 100 forecast,” “Elliott Wave Nasdaq,” and “tech stock analysis.”

Elliott Wave Principles: A Fast Recap

Before diving into the Nasdaq 100 specifically, let’s quickly review the core principles of Elliott Wave theory. Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the theory posits that market prices move in specific patterns, called waves. These patterns reflect the collective psychology of investors.

Impulse waves: These waves move with the trend and consist of five sub-waves (1-5).

corrective Waves: These waves move against the trend and typically consist of three sub-waves (A-B-C).

Fibonacci Relationships: Elliott Wave analysis heavily utilizes Fibonacci retracements and extensions to identify potential wave targets and support/resistance levels.

Applying Elliott Wave to the Nasdaq 100 (July 14, 2025)

Based on current price action as of July 14, 2025, a plausible Elliott Wave count suggests the Nasdaq 100 is likely progressing within Wave 3 of a larger impulse Wave. This is supported by the strong, sustained upward movement observed in recent months.

Wave 1 & 2: the Foundation of the Uptrend

The initial rally from the late 2024 lows likely constituted Wave 1. The subsequent correction, while exhibiting volatility, appears to have completed Wave 2, holding above key Fibonacci retracement levels. This is a positive sign, indicating continued bullish strength. Traders monitoring this phase would have been looking at “Nasdaq 100 correction” and “Wave 2 completion” signals.

Wave 3: The Powerful Surge

Wave 3, currently underway, is typically the longest and strongest wave in an impulse sequence. The Nasdaq 100’s recent gains align with this characteristic. We’ve seen significant contributions from mega-cap tech stocks like Apple (AAPL), microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN), fueling this surge. Analyzing individual stock charts within the Nasdaq 100 using Elliott Wave principles can corroborate this overall index analysis.

Wave 4 & 5: Anticipating Future Movements

Wave 4: Expect a corrective move against the trend of Wave 3. This correction should not retrace more than 38.2% of Wave 3’s advance. Potential support levels to watch will be around the 17,500 – 18,000 range.

Wave 5: The final push of the impulse wave.Wave 5 often exhibits characteristics similar to Wave 1 in terms of momentum and price extension. Fibonacci extensions can definitely help project potential targets for Wave 5.

Key Support and resistance Levels

Identifying crucial support and resistance levels is paramount for any trading strategy. Here are some key levels to monitor for the Nasdaq 100:

Support 1: 17,500 – 18,000 (Potential Wave 4 Retracement)

Support 2: 16,800 – 17,000 (Previous Resistance Level)

Resistance 1: 19,500 – 20,000 (Potential Wave 5 Target)

Resistance 2: 20,500+ (Breakout Level – Signaling further bullish Momentum)

Utilizing fibonacci Tools for Enhanced Analysis

Fibonacci retracements and extensions are indispensable tools for Elliott Wave analysis.

1. Retracements: Identify potential support levels during corrective waves (Waves 2 and 4). Common retracement levels to watch include 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
2. Extensions: project potential price targets for impulse waves (Waves 3 and 5). Key extension levels include 161.8%, 261.8%,and 423.6%.

Nasdaq Data Link & Option Data Sources

Access to real-time market data is crucial for accurate Elliott Wave analysis. Platforms like Nasdaq Data Link provide access to a wide range of financial and alternative data in modern formats, including Python and Excel, enabling analysts to build complex charting and analytical tools.Utilizing this data can refine wave counts and improve the accuracy of predictions.

Risk Management Considerations

While Elliott Wave analysis can offer valuable insights, it’s essential to incorporate robust risk management strategies.

Stop-Loss Orders: Always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.

Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on risk tolerance and market volatility.

Confirmation: Seek confirmation from other technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) before making trading decisions.

* Invalidation Levels: Identify levels where the Elliott Wave count would be invalidated, requiring a reass