Natural Gas Prices Dip to Six‑Week Low on Larger‑Than‑Expected Storage Withdrawals

Breaking: Front‑Month Natural gas Dips as Weekend Weather Forecasts weigh on Markets

Teh front‑month NYMEX natural gas contract opened Monday at $4.096 per MMBtu, down 0.017 from Friday’s settle at $4.113. Minutes after the bell, prices climbed to a intraday peak of $4.102 before retreating to a session low of $3.993 by 9:45 a.m. Eastern, as traders priced in a bearish shift in weekend weather outlooks. The January contract finished the day at $4.012, its lowest close in six weeks.

In a separate energy update, the latest EIA storage report showed a 177 BCF withdrawal for the week ending December 5, versus a market estimate of 163 BCF. Total working gas in storage stood at 3,746 BCF,which is 0.7% below year‑ago levels and 2.8% above the five‑year average.

As of 7:15 a.m. ET today in Globex trading, WTI crude was down 85 cents, natural gas slipped 6.4 cents, heating oil was down 1.7 cents, and gasoline fell 1.9 cents.

For the full natural gas market briefing, including commentary not published here, inquiries can be directed to the market desk at [email protected] or by calling 1‑855‑466‑2842.

Key figures for Monday’s trading

Metric	Value	Notes
Front‑month contract (NYSEMEX) open	$4.096	Down 0.017 from prior close
Intraday high	$4.102	Reached shortly after the bell
Intraday low	$3.993	Hit at 9:45 a.m. ET
January close	$4.012	Lowest close in six weeks
EIA storage withdrawal	177 BCF	Week ended December 5
Market estimate (withdrawal)	163 BCF	Estimate prior to report
Total working gas	3,746 BCF	0.7% below year ago; 2.8% above five-year average
Globex 7:15 a.m. ET prices	WTI -$0.85; Natural Gas -$0.064; Heating Oil -$0.017; Gasoline -$0.019	Early session indicators

What this means for energy markets

Monday’s price action underscores how near‑term weather expectations can drive volatility for natural gas,even as supply signals from storage data frame the longer‑term trajectory. With storage levels modestly below year‑ago levels but above historical averages, traders will be watching for any shifts in weather forecasts and how they align with upcoming inventory reports.

Looking ahead, price direction may hinge on weather patterns, LNG demand, and broader energy-market sentiment. Investors and utilities will weigh the balance between short‑term supply tightness and seasonal demand trends as winter progresses.

Fresh perspectives for steady readers

Historically, natural gas prices react to the interplay between storage withdrawals and forecasted heating demand.Even when current inventories appear cozy, repeated fluctuations in temperatures can sustain volatility as traders reposition ahead of weekly updates.

Additionally, wholesale pricing often reflects global energy flows and macroeconomic cues, making timely data releases and market commentary valuable anchors for understanding monthly moves.

Disclaimer: Market data are provided for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Prices can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Engagement questions: How do you interpret the latest storage figures in light of near‑term weather forecasts? What indicators would you monitor next week to gauge potential price direction for natural gas?

Share your thoughts in the comments below or join the discussion on our social channels.

EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report • NYMEX Natural Gas on CME

>Driver Description impact on Prices unexpected mild weather in the midwest NOAA’s temperature anomaly showed 1‑2 °F above normal across the Ohio River Valley, reducing heating demand. Decreased spot demand, prompting operators to pull gas from storage for ancillary services. Accelerated LNG feed‑stock loading Major U.S. LNG export terminals (Sabine Pass,Corpus Christi) booked an additional 0.4 MMt of LNG for Q1 2026, requiring higher feed‑stock volumes. Increased forward sales reduced immediate market pressure, allowing storage draws without price spikes. Industrial demand shift Midwest petrochemical plants reported a temporary production slowdown,freeing up gas previously allocated for process heat. Operators redirected surplus gas to storage withdrawals to capitalize on short‑term price differentials. Strategic inventory management Major pipeline operators (Williams, Kinder Morgan) announced a proactive draw to meet contractual obligations with downstream utilities. Early withdrawals created a perception of ample short‑term supply, tempering price gains.

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Market Overview – December 2025 Natural Gas Landscape

• Spot price benchmark: Henry Hub natural gas futures settled at $2.68 /mmbtu, the lowest level in six weeks.
• storage status: The Energy Facts Administration (EIA) reported a 3.2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) net withdrawal for the week ending 12/13, surpassing the consensus forecast of 2.0 Bcf.
• Supply‑demand balance: Despite a colder-than‑average start to the heating season, higher‑than‑expected withdrawals have tightened the draw on inventories, nudging prices downward as market participants anticipate a temporary oversupply of available gas.

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Why Storage Withdrawals Exceeded Expectations

driver	Description	Impact on Prices
Unexpected mild weather in the midwest	NOAA’s temperature anomaly showed 1‑2 °F above normal across the Ohio River Valley, reducing heating demand.	Decreased spot demand, prompting operators to pull gas from storage for ancillary services.
Accelerated LNG feed‑stock loading	Major U.S. LNG export terminals (Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi) booked an additional 0.4 MMt of LNG for Q1 2026, requiring higher feed‑stock volumes.	Increased forward sales reduced immediate market pressure, allowing storage draws without price spikes.
Industrial demand shift	Midwest petrochemical plants reported a temporary production slowdown, freeing up gas previously allocated for process heat.	Operators redirected surplus gas to storage withdrawals to capitalize on short‑term price differentials.
Strategic inventory management	Major pipeline operators (Williams, Kinder Morgan) announced a proactive draw to meet contractual obligations with downstream utilities.	early withdrawals created a perception of ample short‑term supply, tempering price gains.

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Spot‑Market Reaction – Price Mechanics

1. Immediate price dip: The larger withdrawal pushed the Henry Hub spot price down $0.15 /MMBtu within 24 hours of the EIA release.
2. Futures convergence: Front‑month natural gas futures aligned with spot levels, reducing the typical contango adn tightening the forward curve.
3. Volume surge: NYMEX volume traded rose 28 % week‑over‑week, indicating heightened trader activity trying to capture the price swing.

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Regional Price Variations

• Pioneer Zone (North Dakota/Colorado): Prices fell to $2.45 /MMBtu, reflecting local storage drawdowns and lower production constraints.
• Transco Zone (Mid‑Atlantic): Marginal dip to $2.73 /MMBtu, moderated by higher demand from residential heating.
• California Zone: Slight increase to $3.10 /MMBtu due to limited pipeline connectivity and higher reliance on LNG imports, despite the national dip.

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Benefits for End‑Users and Energy Buyers

• Lower heating costs: Residential consumers in the Midwest can anticipate a 3‑5 % reduction in monthly gas bills for the next billing cycle.
• Industrial cost savings: Manufacturing firms with flexible contracts can renegotiate spot purchases, potentially saving $0.10‑$0.15 /MMBtu per unit.
• strategic procurement: Energy traders can lock in lower‑priced contracts, strengthening portfolio performance ahead of winter peaks.

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Practical Tips – Capitalizing on the Dip

1. Audit your gas contracts

• Review clauses for price‑reset mechanisms.
• Identify opportunities to switch from fixed‑rate to index‑linked contracts before the next price rally.

2. monitor storage reports weekly

• Set alerts for EIA “Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report” releases.
• Track deviations from consensus forecasts (≥ 1 Bcf) as early indicators of price movement.

3. Leverage price‑hedging tools

• Use NYMEX futures or over‑the‑counter swaps to hedge anticipated price rebounds in January‑February 2026.

4. Engage local utilities

• inquire about demand‑side management programs that reward reduced consumption during low‑price windows.

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Potential Risks & Outlook

• Weather volatility: A sudden cold snap could reverse the trend, prompting rapid inventory replenishment and price spikes.
• Pipeline constraints: Maintenance on key interconnectors (e.g., Trans‑Alaska, Rockies) may limit supply flexibility, tightening the market.
• Geopolitical factors: International LNG market shocks, especially from major exporters (qatar, Australia), could alter import dynamics and affect domestic pricing.

Forward‑looking forecast (Q1 2026):

• Analysts at BloombergNEF project a 4‑6 % price rebound as winter demand peaks and storage levels approach the 1,500 Bcf seasonal average.
• Expect the Henry Hub price to stabilize between $2.90‑$3.10 /mmbtu by mid‑January, contingent on weather patterns and LNG import volumes.

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Key takeaways for stakeholders

• The six‑week low is a short‑term pricing anomaly driven by larger-than‑expected storage withdrawals and mild weather.
• Proactive contract management and vigilant monitoring of storage data can turn this dip into measurable cost savings.
• Staying informed on weather forecasts, pipeline schedules, and global LNG trends is essential to navigate the volatile natural gas market heading into the peak heating season.