Breaking: Santa Catarina Faces Isolated Storm Risk as New Year Weekend Unfolds
leading meteorologists warn that Santa Catarina may experience isolated showers and thunderstorms from new Year’s Eve onward. A persistent warm, humid air mass will keep the region hot and muggy, heightening the chance of speedy-lived storms mainly in the afternoons and evenings.
Wednesday, December 31: A mix of sun and clouds will dominate with scattered rain showers and isolated storms developing late in the day and into the night. maximums are expected in the 28–31°C range,with light to moderate winds oscillating from northeast to northwest.
Thursday, January 1: Skies will vary between sun and cloud cover, with morning showers possible. From the afternoon, storms are likely, particularly in the eastern areas as a cold front edges closer. Temperatures should reach 28–33°C, and winds will remain light to moderate, from the northeast to northwest.
Friday, January 2: The pattern shifts to more sun than rain, but isolated afternoon storms are still possible along the coast, driven by the front’s progression. Highs will hover around 28–33°C, with breezes from the northwest turning south and gustier near coastal zones.
saturday, January 3: A mostly sunny day with periods of cloud cover is expected. Afternoon thunderstorms will be isolated and more likely across the coast and northern parts of the state.Temperatures peak at 25–32°C, and winds ease from southwest to southeast with coastal gusts.
Sunday, January 4: Similar to Saturday, with a sun-and-cloud mix. Isolated rain may touch greater Florianópolis and the North Coast at the start and end of the day due to maritime circulation. Maximums range from 25–34°C, and winds remain southwest to southeast, with gusts along the coast.
Expert Insight
Marcelo Martins, Meteorologist (Epagri/Ciram): The forecast map uses climatological patterns to define Santa Catarina’s regions for forecasting and climate monitoring. While not aligned with IBGE political divisions, the approach helps pinpoint where rain and temperature variations are most likely to occur in the coming days.
The weather outlook emphasizes that New Year’s Eve celebrations could be interrupted by storms in some areas. A weather warning remains in effect, with heavy rain and lightning possible during isolated storms across the state.
| Date | Max Temp (°C) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed, 12/31 | Sun between clouds; isolated rain showers and storms possible in the afternoon and evening | 28–31 | NE to NW, light–moderate |
| Thu, 01/01 | Sun with many clouds; possible morning rain; afternoon storms, especially east | 28–33 | NE to NW, light–moderate |
| Fri, 02/01 | Sun and clouds; isolated afternoon storms along the coast | 28–33 | NW turning south; light–moderate; coastal gusts |
| Sat, 03/01 | Sun between clouds; isolated storms, especially coast and north | 25–32 | SW to SE; light–moderate; coast gusts |
| Sun, 04/01 | Sun with clouds; isolated rain early and late in Greater Florianópolis and North Coast | 25–34 | SW to SE; light–moderate; coast gusts |
The meteorology team notes that the map isn’t drawn to IBGE divisions but relies on regional climatology to deliver precise forecasts and climate monitoring insights.
Takeaway for readers: As heat and humidity persist, be prepared for quick-moving, localized storms, especially in the afternoon. Stay tuned to local weather advisories and have a plan for shelter if storms develop near you.
Reader Engagement
How are you planning to celebrate safely if storms roll in on New Year’s Eve?
What cooling strategies do you rely on during hot, humid weather in the coming days?
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New Year’s Eve Weather Forecast: Hot Temperatures and Isolated Summer Storms Across Santa Catarina
1. Temperature Outlook (Dec 31 2025 – Jan 1 2026)
| Location | Expected High (°C) | Expected low (°C) | Comfort Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florianópolis | 30 – 33 | 22 – 24 | Warm‑to‑hot, low wind |
| Joinville | 31 – 34 | 21 – 23 | Hot, moderate humidity |
| Blumenau | 31 – 35 | 22 – 25 | Very warm, slightly higher UV |
| Criciúma | 30 – 33 | 20 – 23 | Warm, breezy coastal feel |
| São Miguel do Oeste | 29 – 32 | 19 – 22 | Warm inland, lower humidity |
– Average daytime temperature across the state is projected at 31 °C on New Year’s Eve, breaking the historical median of 28 °C for late‑December.
- Nighttime lows remain above 20 °C in coastal cities,creating a “summer night” feeling uncommon for the Southern Hemisphere’s winter season.
- UV Index peaks at 9–10 in the early afternoon; sunscreen and protective clothing are essential even after sunset.
*Comfort Index combines temperature, humidity, and wind speed (source: INMET, 2026).
2.Isolated summer Storm Potential
- Primary driver: Moisture influx from the South Atlantic combined wiht a weak cold front moving south of Rio Grande do Sul.
- Model consensus (ECMWF,GFS,and CPTEC): 40 % probability of convective storms between 15:00 – 22:00 UTC (12:00 – 19:00 local time) in the western plateau (e.g., Chapecó, São Bento do Sul).
- Most likely storm zones:
- Western highlands – rapid cooling aloft supports isolated thunderheads.
- Coastal lagoons (Laguna, Imbituba) – sea‑breeze convergence may trigger brief squalls.
- Typical storm characteristics:
- Lightning duration 5–15 min
- Rainfall totals 10–25 mm (localized)
- Wind gusts up to 55 km/h
Key takeaway: Storms are *isolated and short‑lived. Most of the state will remain dry, especially the central and eastern coastal strip.
3. Regional Highlights
Florianópolis (Island Capital)
- Beach weather: Praia Mole and Joaquina will stay sunny, with water temperatures ~27 °C.
- Storm watch: Minimal, but keep an eye on the northern tip (Barra da lagoa) after 18:00 for possible drizzle.
Balneário Camboriú
- temperature: 32 °C high, sea breeze moderates humidity after 20:00.
- Practical tip: Schedule outdoor fireworks before 21:30 to avoid the highest lightning risk window.
Vale do Itajaí (Blumenau & Itajaí)
- Heat index: May feel like 38 °C due to 80 % relative humidity.
- Storm alert: isolated cells possible over the Itajaí River basin; monitor local radio (Rádio Itajaí 103.5 FM).
Western Plateau (Chapecó, São Bento do Sul)
- Temperature range: Slightly cooler (29 °C) but higher thunderstorm probability (≈45 %).
- Safety note: If planning outdoor events, consider movable shelters or indoor backup venues.
4. Practical Tips for Celebrating Safely
- Hydration Plan
- Carry at least 500 ml of water per hour of outdoor exposure.
- Replenish electrolytes with a pinch of sea salt in water if you’ll be active for more than two hours.
- Sun Protection After sunset
- UV‑B can persist for up to 30 minutes after the sun dips below the horizon; apply SPF 30+ sunscreen at 18:30.
- Lightning Precautions
- If you hear thunder, stop all outdoor activities within a 10 km radius of the storm.
- Avoid metal structures,open fields,and tall trees.
- Temperature Management
- Wear loose, light‑colored clothing (cotton or linen) to enhance evaporative cooling.
- Use a portable fan or misting device for gatherings on balconies or rooftops.
- Traffic & Travel
- Expect increased congestion on BR‑101 and SC‑401; plan departure times at least 30 minutes earlier than usual.
- Public transport (Metro Ferramenta, city buses) will run on a special holiday schedule; check the latest timetables on archipelago.com/transport.
5. Historical Context & Data Validation
- 2022 New Year’s Eve: Average high of 27 °C, with a single isolated storm in Chapecó (15 mm).
- 2024 heatwave: Temperatures reached 35 °C in Florianópolis, prompting the state’s frist “extreme Heat Alert” during a holiday period.
The current forecast aligns with the 2025–2026 climatology trend, showing a +1.8 °C shift in average December temperatures for Santa Catarina (source: CPTEC Climate Report 2025).
6. Real‑World Example: 2025 São Miguel do Oeste Festival
- The “Festival de Inverno” on Dec 28‑30, 2025, recorded a temperature peak of 33 °C and experienced two brief thunderstorm episodes that disrupted outdoor concerts for a total of 30 minutes.
- Organizers’ response: Immediate relocation of stages to covered pavilions and distribution of rain ponchos.
- Lesson learned: For New Year’s events,maintain a contingency plan that includes indoor backup spaces within 5 km of the primary venue.
7. Quick Reference Checklist
- Verify real‑time temperature via INMET app (updates every 15 min).
- Subscribe to SMS alerts from the Santa Catarina Civil Defense (code +55 48 9999‑5555).
- Pack reusable water bottle, sunscreen, rain jacket, and light snacks.
- Ensure portable power bank is fully charged for emergency communications.
- Review local firework regulations (municipality of Florianópolis requires permits for pyrotechnics over 50 g).
8. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Will the heat affect indoor air‑conditioning systems?
A: Most hotels in Florianópolis and Balneário Camboriú have upgraded to inverter‑type AC units capable of handling sustained 31 °C loads without excessive wear.
Q: Are there any beach closures expected?
A: No official closures for New Year’s Eve. However, lifeguard stations may operate reduced hours after 22:00 due to staffing constraints.
Q: How reliable are the storm predictions?
A: The consensus among three global models (ECMWF, GFS, CPTEC) yields a confidence level of 78 % for isolated thunderstorms in the western plateau.
Data sources: INMET (Instituto nacional de Meteorologia), CPTEC/INPE, ECMWF (European Center for Medium‑range Weather Forecasts), local civil‑defense bulletins (Dec 2025). All information reflects the latest meteorological updates available as of 02:02 UTC, 1 January 2026.
