NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets: Top Picks and Expert Betting Insights

Oct 5, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) salutes the fans following the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

Week 7 landed with a scent of old man and bengal tiger on Thursday, when Cincinnati’s 40-year-old Joe Flacco figured out the best way to beat the Steelers was an old-fashioned game of catch with All-Pro wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase.

Both went over their projected yardage totals and Chase easily cleared the 7.5-catch mark with 16 receptions for 161 yards and a score. He has 26 catches in two games since the Bengals swiped Flacco from the Browns via trade.

If statistics and player performance models are your jam, grab the butter knife.

With hundreds of markets for each game every week, finding the right ones can be a daunting task, but we’re here to help.

Here are our 10 favorite NFL player props for Week 7.

Jared Goff, OVER .5 rushing yards at +145 (BetMGM)

With one rush for seven yards last week vs. the Chiefs, Goff went OVER this mark for the third time in six games.

Against the Buccaneers, the goal for the day is ball control because of a battered secondary also dealing with Brian Branch’s one-game suspension. The longer they can keep the ball out of Baker Mayfield’s hands, the better.

While he doesn’t run often, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him tuck it and run for a short gain rather than attempt a risky throw. At this price, it’s worth the risk to take the OVER.

Travis Hunter, OVER 3.5 receptions at -130 (BetMGM)

Hunter had four catches last week after getting targeted seven times and has had at least three catches in five of six games this season. During the week, head coach Liam Coen expressed an interest in designing more plays with Hunter as the primary read. He’s electric every time he touches the ball, and Coen will likely dial his number at least once per quarter.

Rhamondre Stevenson, OVER 41.5 rushing yards at -115 (DraftKings)

Stevenson has not gone OVER this mark since running for 54 yards vs. the Dolphins in Week 2. But QB Drake Maye has the passing game on the runway. It will not take long for the Patriots to get out to a sizable lead against a poor Tennessee Titans team.

At that point, the offensive focus will likely turn to the run game. Stevenson will get enough carries to go OVER this TOTAL as the Patriots bleed the clock in the second half.

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D’Andre Swift, OVER 52.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

Swift ran for 108 yards last week vs. the Commanders and has gone OVER this TOTAL in three of five games this season (one of his last three). He’ll face a Saints defense this week that has been a little tough on running backs (85.33 ypg allowed), but the Bears will put enough emphasis on establishing the run for him to go OVER this mark.

Alvin Kamara, OVER 45.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

Kamara has rushed for more than 45.5 yards just twice in six games this season, and in one of his last four. But he should benefit from playing a Bears defense that is next-to-last stopping the run, giving up 156.4 yards rushing a game.

Quinshon Judkins, to score a touchdown at -125 (FanDuel), OVER 85.5 rushing yards at -150 (BetMGM)

Judkins never got it going against the Steelers’ defense (12 carries for 36 yards) last week with the Browns going to the air. He should have an easier time finding running lanes against Miami, which arrives in an expected rainstorm on Sunday sporting the worst run defense in the league. In the three games with at least 18 carries, he scored twice and ran for 82-plus in all three.

Rico Dowdle, UNDER 63.5 rushing yards at -130 (BetMGM)

Dowdle has been taking advantage of weak run defenses the last two weeks, but will likely be sharing snaps at running back with Chuba Hubbard this week. With fewer touches and a Jets front that isn’t easily blocked, he’ll finish UNDER his TOTAL this week.

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Saquon Barkley, OVER 68.5 rushing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

Barkley has been an immense disappointment this season, but there is still time for him to turn it around. Facing a Vikings’ defense that is not strong against the run (ripped for 132.2 yards per game in five games this season) gives him a shot at a breakout game. The only question is whether the Eagles will vary their attack enough to keep the Vikings from overloading the box.

Jayden Daniels, OVER 227.5 passing yards at -115 (BetMGM)

Everyone has been destroying the user-friendly Dallas defense and putting up big numbers. Daniels is ready to jump in line for his turn now that Micah Parsons — who had 4.5 sacks in two Cowboys-Commanders games last season — is a Wisconsin resident. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young put up numbers that imply he was held in check last week, but that had more to do with Rico Dowdle running wild.

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What is the implied probability of Patrick Mahomes going over 285.5 passing yards?

NFL Week 7 Player prop Bets: top Picks adn Expert Betting Insights

Quarterback Props to Watch

This week presents several intriguing opportunities within the quarterback prop market. Focusing on passing yardage and touchdown passes often yields the best value.

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) – Over 285.5 Passing Yards: Facing a Chargers defense that’s been susceptible to big plays through the air, Mahomes is poised for a high-volume passing performance. Consider this a strong NFL prop bet given the Chiefs’ offensive firepower and the Chargers’ defensive vulnerabilities.

* Josh Allen (BUF) – Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: Allen consistently finds the endzone, and his dual-threat ability makes him a constant red-zone threat. The Bills’ matchup against the Patriots suggests a favorable scoring environment. This is a solid player prop bet for touchdown hunters.

* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Under 260.5 Passing Yards: While efficient, Tua frequently enough relies on short, quick passes.Facing a stout Eagles defense, expect a more conservative approach, possibly limiting his yardage total. this NFL betting pick leans towards the under.

Running Back Prop Bet Opportunities

Identifying running backs in favorable matchups is crucial for successful prop betting. Volume and efficiency are key indicators.

* Bijan Robinson (ATL) – Over 75.5 Rushing yards: Robinson is the focal point of the Falcons’ offence. A matchup against a Tampa Bay run defense that has shown cracks makes this a compelling NFL player prop. expect a heavy workload and opportunities for explosive runs.

* Jonathan Taylor (IND) – Over 60.5 Rushing Yards: Taylor’s return to form has been impressive. While the Browns defense is strong, Taylor’s talent and the Colts’ commitment to the run game suggest he’ll exceed this yardage total. A smart football prop bet for those seeking value.

* Travis Etienne jr. (JAX) – Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Etienne is a dynamic playmaker and a primary red-zone option for the Jaguars. His speed and elusiveness make him a constant threat to score. This NFL touchdown prop offers good odds.

Wide Receiver Prop Bets: Exploiting Matchups

Targeting wide receivers facing weaker cornerbacks or in pass-heavy offenses is a winning strategy.

* Tyreek Hill (MIA) – Over 90.5 Receiving Yards: Hill is a game-breaker, and his speed is a nightmare for opposing defenses. The Eagles’ secondary will have their hands full containing him. A high-probability NFL prop bet for yardage.

* CeeDee Lamb (DAL) – Over 7.5 Receptions: Lamb is Dak Prescott’s go-to target. expect a high volume of targets in a potentially high-scoring game against the rams. This player prop bet focuses on consistency.

* A.J. Brown (PHI) – Over 65.5 Receiving Yards: Brown is a physical receiver who consistently wins contested catches.The Dolphins’ secondary will struggle to contain him. A strong NFL receiving prop for Week 7.

Tight End Props: Finding Value in a Limited Position

Tight end props can offer value, especially when targeting players with meaningful red-zone roles.

* George Kittle (SF) – Over 40.5 Receiving Yards: Kittle is a crucial part of the 49ers’ offense, notably in the red zone. Expect him to be a key target against the Vikings. A reliable NFL tight end prop.

* Travis Kelce (KC) – Anytime Touchdown Scorer: Kelce remains Mahomes’ favorite target,especially in scoring situations. Despite a potentially tough matchup, his red-zone prowess makes him a valuable NFL touchdown prop bet.

Prop Betting Strategy & Risk Management

Successful NFL prop betting requires a disciplined approach. Here are some key strategies:

* Shop for the Best Lines: Different sportsbooks offer varying odds. Comparing lines is crucial to maximizing potential profits.

* Focus on Specific Matchups: Identify favorable matchups for players based on defensive weaknesses and offensive tendencies.

* Manage Yoru Bankroll: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. A common strategy is to risk 1-2% of your bankroll per bet.

* Track your Results: Monitoring your wins and losses helps identify strengths and weaknesses in your betting strategy.

* Consider Weather Conditions: Inclement weather can significantly impact passing games and favor running attacks.

Understanding Implied Probability

Implied probability is a crucial concept for NFL betting. It represents the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds. For example, odds of +1