Trent Frederic’s Oilers Contract: A Risky Bet on the Future of Bottom-Six Forwards?
Is the Edmonton Oilers’ potential eight-year commitment to Trent Frederic a sign of shrewd long-term planning or a gamble on a player whose impact is still largely unproven? The NHL landscape is shifting, and the Oilers’ strategy could signal a new era in how teams evaluate and compensate depth players.
The Long-Term Deal Dilemma
The proposed deal, a max-term, eight-year contract, is a significant commitment for a player like Frederic, who primarily occupies a bottom-six role. While his physical presence and potential upside are clear, the Oilers are betting heavily on projected future performance rather than current results. This contrasts with the typical approach of offering shorter-term deals or free-agent commitments to players in this category. We are witnessing a changing market where NHL teams are trying to secure “value” in their rosters, but the question is, is it possible to assess the value of a bottom-six forward?
Comparing Frederic to the Competition
Other bottom-six wingers, such as William Carrier, Logan O’Connor, Mathieu Olivier, and Miles Wood, have all secured long-term deals in recent years. These deals usually came after a period of strong performance. However, Frederic hasn’t had a breakout season and spent the majority of last season with Boston, meaning the Oilers’ investment carries more risk. Can the Oilers build their strategy around a player with such a limited sample size?
The Oilers’ Perspective: Filling a Need
The Oilers likely see Frederic as a cost-effective replacement for veterans like Viktor Arvidsson and Evander Kane. Both Arvidsson and Kane may move this summer to open up cap space. Frederic’s potential salary, even with a long-term commitment, is likely to be more manageable. This allows the Oilers to spread their financial resources, allocating more towards high-impact players while locking in younger, developing talent.
Frederic’s Playoff Performance: A Closer Look
While Frederic’s playoff ice time averaged 11:24 across 22 games, his possession metrics were not as strong as some of his Oilers teammates. His 45.2% share of shot attempts at even strength was second-worst among players who played all 22 games. The team may be looking to improve upon this in future seasons.
Risks and Rewards of Long-Term Contracts
Committing to a player for eight years takes Frederic through his age-35 season, introducing considerable risk. The player’s skills may decline, or the game may evolve, rendering his contributions less valuable as his career progresses. However, the Oilers are betting on Frederic’s potential to improve and his role as a solid player in their lineup. They are likely hoping he’ll remain valuable, even if in a reduced capacity.
The Financial Implications
Even if Frederic’s on-ice production doesn’t dramatically improve, the Oilers could still benefit if his contract is affordable. As the salary cap rises, the value of a player in their prime years could increase even in a reduced role. This financial flexibility is vital, especially in a competitive division where the Oilers seek to build towards sustained success.
What Does the Future Hold?
The NHL is experiencing a new era of contract negotiations. Some experts believe this deal could signal a willingness by teams to lock in players early. The Oilers are making a bet on Frederic’s long-term value, and if it pays off, it could serve as a blueprint for other teams in the league. The key for Edmonton will be to ensure that the player is a reliable asset in their lineup for years to come.
Are you excited by the direction the Oilers are taking? Share your thoughts and predictions about the future of NHL contracts in the comments below!
