The final stretch of the Oscar race is underway, with voting now closed as of 5 p.m. PT on Thursday. Months of campaigning – from film festival premieres to industry screenings and awards ceremonies – have concluded, leaving nominees to await the results. The Academy Awards ceremony, set for March 15th at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, will reveal the culmination of this intense season.
Analyzing the Oscar race has become a dedicated pursuit for film industry publications like Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Deadline. Every award show result and critical reception is scrutinized for clues about the final outcome. An Oscar win carries significant weight, potentially boosting a film’s box office revenue by an average of $39 million (£29m), according to industry analysis, and can be transformative for the careers of those involved.
The recent Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards delivered a potential shift in momentum, with Michael B. Jordan’s unexpected win for Best Actor in Sinners sparking speculation that the Ryan Coogler-directed vampire thriller is now a frontrunner. The film has amassed a record 16 Oscar nominations, putting it in a tight competition with Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, a film adapted from Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Chase Infiniti.
Variety’s Clayton Davis declared that Jordan’s victory at the SAG Awards had “shifted the entire DNA of the Oscar season,” while Deadline’s Pete Hammond noted that Sinners “caught a wave Sunday night with a chance to ride it all the way in.” Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter suggested that Sinners could benefit from the Academy’s preferential ballot system.
Anonymous voter opinions, published by Variety, indicate that both Sinners and One Battle After Another are heavily favored for Best Picture. Jessie Buckley is considered a strong contender for Best Actress, and Sean Penn is experiencing a late surge in support for Best Supporting Actor, despite his well-known reluctance towards the awards show. Conversely, Timothée Chalamet’s chances for Best Actor for Marty Supreme appear to be diminishing following Robert Aramayo’s win at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) for I Swear. With I Swear not qualifying for the 2026 Oscars due to its US release date, the race largely remains between Jordan and DiCaprio.
The voting dynamics differ significantly between awards shows. Over 122,000 members of SAG-AFTRA are eligible to vote for the SAG Awards, while the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) has just over 10,000 voters, though there is overlap with other guilds like the Producers Guild of America and the Directors Guild of America. AMPAS has also implemented a new rule requiring voters to have seen all nominated films to cast a ballot.
Presenters and In Memoriam Announced
The Academy Awards ceremony is taking shape with the announcement of several presenters, including Robert Downey Jr., Paul Mescal, and Gwyneth Paltrow, joining previously announced host Conan O’Brien, Mikey Madison, Adrien Brody, and Demi Moore.
Deadline reports that Barbra Streisand is in discussions to participate in a tribute to the late actor and director Robert Redford, who died in September. The pair famously starred together in the 1973 romantic film, The Way We Were. Billy Crystal and Meg Ryan, stars of When Harry Met Sally, are also slated to appear in an In Memoriam tribute honoring director Rob Reiner, who, along with his wife Michele Reiner, was found murdered in December.
As the final votes are tallied, the film industry holds its breath. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony promises to be a celebration of cinematic achievement, and the outcome will undoubtedly shape the conversation around film for the year to come.
The Academy Awards ceremony will accept place on March 15th at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. Share your predictions and thoughts on the upcoming ceremony in the comments below.
