Warsaw – Poland’s trade balance shifted to a deficit of €6.2 billion (26.2 billion zlotys) in 2025, marking a significant change from previous years, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS). This represents a turning point for the Polish economy, traditionally a net exporter. The shift is driven by a faster increase in import values compared to exports.
The GUS data reveals that Polish exports reached approximately €368.7 billion in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year. Still, imports surged by 3.9% to around €374.9 billion. This widening gap between imports and exports is attributed to several factors, including increased demand for raw materials and intermediate goods, as well as a strengthening Polish currency making imports cheaper. The change in the trade balance underscores a broader trend of evolving economic dynamics within the European Union and globally.
Key Trade Partners
Germany remains Poland’s primary export destination, accounting for 26.9% of total exports, followed by the Czech Republic (6.2%) and France (6.1%). On the import side, Germany is also the leading supplier, providing 19% of Poland’s total imports, with China (15.5%) and the United States (4.8%) following closely behind. These figures highlight Poland’s strong economic ties with its European neighbors and its increasing reliance on global supply chains.
The composition of Poland’s trade is also noteworthy. In 2025, 87.1% of Polish exports were destined for developed countries, with 74.8% going to the European Union. Similarly, 64.4% of imports originated from developed countries, including 52.6% from the EU. These proportions are slightly higher than in 2024, indicating a continued focus on trade within the developed world. Infomédiaire reports these figures, citing GUS data.
Broader Economic Context
This trade deficit occurs within a broader context of shifting economic conditions in Europe. According to the French Treasury, Poland’s economy has experienced significant growth since joining the European Union in 2004, consistently exceeding the European average. However, the country’s economic vulnerability is increasing, with the current account balance decreasing to +0.1% of GDP in 2024, down from +1.8% in 2023. The French Treasury forecasts a further decline, with a projected deficit of -0.3% and -0.7% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, respectively, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Polish labor market remains robust, with a low unemployment rate of 3.2% in October 2025, compared to a European Union average of 6.0% (Eurostat). The average monthly minimum wage stands at approximately €1,092 in 2025, representing 53.3% of the average gross salary (GUS). However, labor costs have been rising, with a 7.8% year-on-year increase in the third quarter of 2025, although the pace of growth is slowing (Eurostat).
The shift to a trade deficit in 2025 signals a potential recalibration of Poland’s economic strategy. While the country continues to benefit from strong economic fundamentals and a resilient labor market, the increasing reliance on imports and the evolving global economic landscape present new challenges. Destockage Importateur Exportateur notes that 2025 marks a delicate turning point for Polish trade.
What to Watch Next
Looking ahead, the trajectory of Poland’s trade balance will likely depend on several factors, including global commodity prices, the strength of the Eurozone economy, and the evolution of geopolitical tensions. Monitoring the impact of rising labor costs and the country’s ability to maintain its competitiveness in key export markets will also be crucial. The next data release from GUS, expected in the spring of 2026, will provide further insights into the sustainability of this trend.
What are your thoughts on Poland’s shifting trade dynamics? Share your comments below and let us know how you think these changes will impact the region.
