2024-01-28 06:08:00
(CNN) — Since the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Hungary has been the weakest link in the West’s response. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has delayed kyiv’s membership talks with the EU, delayed aid deals and cast doubt on Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia.
That is why so much attention is paid to this Monday’s meeting between the foreign ministers of Hungary and Ukraine.
While both countries have been deliberately unclear regarding the purpose of the meeting in public statements, Western officials privately hope it will provide some clarity on whether Hungary will lift its veto on a €50 billion European Union support package for Ukraine that was supposed to be signed in December.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said at the time that the reason he blocked the funds was because it was wrong for EU budget money to leave the bloc.
Orban’s critics noted that his objections might have something to do with the fact that Brussels is reluctant to give Hungary money from the same budget because it violated the EU’s rule of law requirements, fundamental values enshrined in the bloc’s treaties. Orban and members of his government have repeatedly denied that there is any connection between the two or that they have violated EU rules.
But those same critics also point out that Orban has an exceptionally close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many Western officials believe Orban is taking advantage of that relationship to intimidate his European allies by playing the Kremlin’s puppet: acting tough on support for Ukraine, a key priority for much of Europe, in exchange for concessions in other areas. .
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, left, is greeted by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as he arrives at a NATO summit at NATO headquarters in Brussels, July 11, 2018.
It is no secret that Hungary is increasingly an uneasy companion for its EU and NATO partners. In recent years, Orban has come to blows with his European counterparts over all sorts of issues, ranging from the rights of LGBTQ+ citizens and immigrants to the undermining of the judiciary.
He has stretched the bloc’s rules to breaking point and adopted brinkmanship with Brussels many times, and too often emerged with concessions or rigged deals when he got his way.
However, the crisis in Ukraine shed an increasingly bright light on the differences between Hungary and its Western allies.
Hungary thwarted European- and U.S.-led efforts to support Ukraine for the better part of two years. Orban dragged his feet on EU sanctions once morest Russia and the supply of weapons and financial aid to Ukraine, and played an obstructive role in kyiv’s bid to join the EU.
Not only did he oppose a similar attempt by kyiv to join NATO, he was a major obstacle to Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. It is difficult to view his opposition to Scandinavian countries joining NATO without seeing the expansion of the defensive alliance as a key Putin grievance.
Orban eventually dropped his objections, allowing Finland to join NATO last year, but is now the latest holdout on ratifying the Swedish offer, following the Turkish parliament’s vote to approve it this week. Orban said shortly following the Turkish vote that Hungary did indeed support Sweden’s candidacy for NATO, although there is no firm timetable for when there will be a similar ratification in the Hungarian parliament.
Unlocking Europe’s €50 billion in aid to Ukraine is by far the most pressing issue ahead of Monday’s foreign ministers’ meeting, because EU leaders will meet once more on February 1 to try once more to approve the package. Western officials tell CNN that even a small hint behind the scenes of what it would take for Hungary to lift its veto would be a big victory.
However, most officials who spoke to CNN fear that Hungary’s latest obstructionism is just a taste of what is to come and are bracing for new tantrums from Orban that will curb Western support for Ukraine in the future.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Orban talk during a signing ceremony for several agreements between the two countries on February 17, 2015 in Budapest, Hungary. Sean Gallup/Getty Images
There are some optimists, mostly diplomats, who say that while Orban is publicly playing to his domestic audience, he ultimately supported all previous EU and NATO measures, even if he did so through gritted teeth. “Without a doubt, many of the public messages were bad. But interestingly, behind the scenes it hasn’t been that bad,” a European security official told CNN.
The official added that Hungary has a much closer relationship with Russia than other European countries and politically Orban needs to “signal that he is not a NATO puppet” to his audiences at home and in Moscow. “If an angry tweet is the price we pay to move forward, that’s fine.”
But other officials are less generous. They believe Orban is taking advantage of his relationship with Putin to blackmail the EU and NATO by disrupting a united front. It doesn’t matter, they say, that Orban ultimately accepts most things, but that he creates space for a perception that the West is not entirely in unison.
“It is true that it is a lot regarding the spectacle with the Hungarians. Most of them give in in the end. But time and time once more, they have blocked important actions to support Ukraine and strengthen the Western alliance,” a German foreign affairs official told CNN.
“Whether it is EU funding for arms support to Ukraine, NATO expansion in Scandinavia or simply peddling Russian disinformation regarding the war, they constantly disrupt Western unity.”
Western officials increasingly find themselves in an information war with the Kremlin. Information wars are sometimes not much more complicated than zero-sum games. Something that can be interpreted as a crack in unity is considered bad for the West and therefore good for Putin. It may seem overly simplistic, but that is how many officials and diplomats see things.
The Hungarian question is complex because of that simple truth. Orban knows exactly how valuable his support is to the West, which is why he can keep allied states on a barrel, even though Hungary is a net beneficiary within both the EU and NATO.
And he also knows that, more than anything, even the slightest hint of disagreement between him and these institutions is valuable to Putin. To see this, just look at Russian state media coverage of Orban’s clashes with his allies.
For both reasons, it makes political sense for Orban to sit for as long as possible, since history has taught him that this is the way to obtain concessions.
Of course, none of this helps Ukraine. As the war enters its third year next month, Ukrainians need clarity more than ever regarding what support they will have from the West, especially in a US presidential election year.
Political psychodramas are a harmful distraction when you are under invasion. But that is what the vast majority of European officials believe we are likely to see in the coming months.
And, as the situation becomes more desperate and unstable, there will be more and more opportunities for Orban to create problems and reap greater political rewards for himself.
1706433579
#Orbans #ties #Putin #putting #European #aid #Ukraine #risk
