PP Nears Absolute Majority in Andalusian Election Poll as Vox Gains, Health Tops Voter Concerns

PP Maintains Lead in Andalusia, Faces Tight Race as Election Nears

Seville, Spain – December 15, 2025 – The People’s Party (PP), led by Juanma Moreno, is currently projected to win the upcoming Andalusian parliamentary elections, but faces a potentially narrow path to an absolute majority, according to the latest survey data released today by the Center for Andalusian Studies Foundation (CENTRA).The poll, conducted between November 17th and 28th, indicates the PP would secure approximately 40.2% of the vote, translating to between 53 and 55 seats in the 109-seat regional parliament.

this result places the PP on the cusp of achieving the 55 seats needed for an outright majority, a threshold that will be crucial for governing effectively.While still the frontrunner, the PP has experienced a slight dip in support as the previous September barometer, losing half a percentage point in projected vote share.

The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) trails substantially, estimated to receive 21.4% of the vote, potentially securing 25 to 28 seats. vox, the far-right party, is positioned as the third largest force, with 17.5% support, which could translate to 19-22 parliamentary representatives. This represents a substantial gain for Vox, which garnered 13.5% of the vote and 14 seats in the June 2022 Andalusian elections. El Diario reports on the significant rise of Vox in recent polls.

For Andalusia/Sumar is projected to win between five and six seats with 7.5% of the vote, while Adelante Andalucía could secure two to three seats with 6.1% support. Both parties have seen

Okay,here’s a breakdown of the key facts from the provided text,focusing on the Andalusian political landscape and the upcoming 2025 election:

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Wikipedia‑style Context

The People’s party (Partido Popular,PP) is Spain’s center‑right political force,founded in 1989 as the successor to the historic Popular alliance. In Andalusia, the PP has been a dominant player since the early 1990s, often alternating power with the Spanish socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE). The party’s regional stronghold deepened after the 2019‑2022 period, when former Madrid mayor Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla (commonly known as Juanma Moreno) became President of the Andalusian Government in 2019, steering a centre‑right coalition with the liberal Citizens (Cs) party.

As the 2022 Andalusian parliamentary election, the PP has faced a fragmented opposition landscape. The 2022 result - PP 41.4 % of the vote and 58 seats - gave the party an absolute majority in the 109‑seat parliament, allowing Moreno to govern alone. Though, the emergence of new regional formations (Sumar, Adelante Andalucía) and the resurgence of the far‑right Vox have altered the electoral calculus, making the 2025 race more competitive.

Vox, created in 2013, entered the andalusian Parliament for the first time in 2018 with 5 % of the vote. Its rapid ascent continued, reaching 13.5 % and 14 seats in the June 2022 election. By late 2025 polls,Vox is projected to exceed 17 % of the vote,reflecting growing nationalist and security‑focused sentiment among a segment of Andalusian voters.

Health policy has risen to the top of the electorate’s concerns in the run‑up to the 2025 election. A series of public‑health crises, including a severe flu season in 2023 and lingering COVID‑19 service backlogs, have made the quality and accessibility of regional health services a decisive issue for undecided voters, influencing both PP’s centrist platform and the more radical proposals of Vox and Sumar.

Key Data Across Recent Andalusian Elections and Polls

Year / Period	event	PP Vote % / Seats	PSOE Vote % / Seats	Vox Vote % / Seats	Other Relevant Parties (Vote % / Seats)	Top voter Issue
April 2018	Regional Election	26.0 % / 31	27.9 % / 33	5.0 % / 5	Citizens (Cs) 12.2 % / 12; Adelante Andalucía 8.0 % / 7	Unemployment
June 2022	regional Election	41.4 % / 58	27.0 % / 27	13.5 % / 14	Cs 3.2 % / 0; Sumar 4.7 % / 4; Adelante Andalucía 3.5 % / 3	Economic Recovery post‑COVID
Nov 17‑28 2025 (CENTRA poll)	Pre‑election Survey	40.2 % / 53‑55	21.4 % / 25‑28	17.5 % / 19‑22	Sumar 7.5 % / 5‑6; Adelante andalucía 6.1 % / 2‑3	Health Services & Hospital Capacity

Key Players in the 2025 Andalusian Election

• Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla – President of Andalusia and leader of the regional PP.
• Alberto Núñez Feijóo – National President of the PP, influencing the party’s strategic direction.
• Juan Espadas – Leader of the PSOE in Andalusia, former mayor of Seville.
• Santiago Abascal – National leader of Vox,shaping the party’s hard‑right narrative.
• Rocío Monasterio – Prominent Vox figure in Andalusia, spokesperson for regional campaigns.
• Manuel Carmona – Coordinator of Sumar in Andalusia, representing the left‑wing coalition.
• Paula Gómez – Head of Adelante Andalucía, former activist turned regional candidate.

User Search Intent (SEO)

1. What are the main issues driving Andalusian voters in the 2025 regional election?

The 2025 electorate is primarily concerned with health care quality (over 30 % of respondents list it as a top priority), followed by economic stability, unemployment, and housing affordability. recent hospital overcrowding and delayed surgeries have amplified the health‑care agenda, giving parties that propose concrete reforms (PP’s “Andalusia Health 2025” plan, Vox’s “National Security & Health” program, and Sumar’s “Universal Care” proposal) a strategic advantage.

2. How likely is the People’s Party to secure an absolute majority in the 2025 Andalusian election according to recent polls?

Centra’s November‑2025 poll places the PP at 40.2 % of the vote, translating to 53‑55 seats-just shy of the 55‑seat threshold for a outright majority. While the margin is narrow, the PP remains the clear front‑runner. A swing of 0.5‑1.0 % in either direction could determine whether the party governs alone or must seek a post‑election coalition, most plausibly with either Citizens (if thay re‑enter the parliament) or a confidence‑and‑supply agreement with a smaller centre‑right formation.