The Kremlin’s Playbook: Why Kushner & Witkoff’s Ukraine Talks Are a Dangerous Illusion
The assumption that a private deal can unlock a solution to the war in Ukraine is not just naive – it’s playing directly into Vladimir Putin’s hands. Reports of optimism from Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff following meetings with Kremlin officials are particularly concerning, given Russia’s consistent rejection of any compromise that doesn’t meet its maximalist objectives. The stakes are far higher than simply ending the conflict; they involve the future of European security and the potential for a dramatically reshaped global order.
Putin’s Unwavering Goals: Beyond Ukraine
To understand the futility of these negotiations, one must grasp the scope of Putin’s ambitions. Russia’s position isn’t about minor territorial adjustments; it’s about the complete dismantling of the post-Cold War security architecture. This includes the elimination of Ukraine as an independent nation, the fracturing of NATO, and the weakening of the United States’ influence on the world stage. As the Cipher Brief highlights, Putin aims to establish a multi-polar world order dominated by autocratic powers like Russia and China.
The Narrative Warfare Campaign
Putin isn’t relying solely on military force. He’s simultaneously waging a sophisticated information war, pushing two key narratives. First, that Russia is winning in Ukraine and Kyiv’s defeat is inevitable. Second, that Europe is hindering efforts towards a negotiated settlement – a claim designed to sow discord between the U.S. and its allies. This is coupled with “gray zone” operations across Europe, designed to undermine confidence in security and erode support for Ukraine, as detailed in reports from national security experts.
The Business Angle: A Recipe for Disaster
The most alarming aspect of the Kushner-Witkoff mission is the suggestion that securing post-conflict business deals in Russia is a central priority. This is a profoundly misguided approach. Dealing with a kleptocracy like Putin’s Russia is inherently risky, as Bill Browder, a vocal critic of the Kremlin, has repeatedly warned. The history of Western businesses in Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union is littered with cautionary tales of investments lost and assets seized. The promise of riches is a mirage.
Why Putin Won’t Play Fair
Putin views any potential business arrangements with Western entities as an opportunity for exploitation, not partnership. He aims to steal money, not share profits. Any agreements reached would inevitably be broken, and those involved would find themselves at his mercy. The leaked transcript of Steve Witkoff’s conversation with Kirill Dmitriev, where Witkoff offered advice on persuading President Trump, underscores the compromised nature of these interactions and raises serious questions about potential undue influence.
The Illusion of Trust and the Echoes of Munich
President Trump, and any representatives acting on his behalf, must recognize that Putin is not a trustworthy negotiator. His actions and rhetoric over the past two decades demonstrate a deep-seated hostility towards the West and a belief that democracy and capitalism are failing ideologies. He views the U.S. as his “main enemy” – the “glavniy protivnik” – and any concessions will be seen as weakness to be exploited. As Winston Churchill famously warned Neville Chamberlain, appeasement only emboldens aggressors.
The current situation echoes the disastrous Munich Agreement of 1938. Offering Putin a path to achieve his objectives through negotiation, rather than confronting his aggression, will only lead to further conflict and instability. The focus should be on strengthening Ukraine’s defenses, bolstering NATO’s resolve, and increasing the costs for Russia’s continued aggression.
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