Doha – Qatar’s Minister of Energy, Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi, warned Friday that global oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks, citing escalating tensions in the Middle East and potential disruptions to regional energy exports.
Al Kaabi, in an interview with the Financial Times, indicated that Qatar is preparing for a potential halt in energy shipments, even if a ceasefire were to be implemented immediately. He stated that a return to normal supply cycles would take “weeks to months.”
The minister’s comments reach as Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) on Monday, in response to Iranian strikes against Gulf states following Israeli and American military actions. Qatar’s LNG production represents approximately 20 percent of global supply, making it a critical component of energy markets in Asia, and Europe.
Al Kaabi further suggested that other Gulf exporters, who have not yet declared force majeure, are likely to do so in the coming days if the current situation persists. “We expect everyone who hasn’t declared force majeure to do so in the next few days if things continue as they are. All exporters in the Gulf region will be forced to declare force majeure,” he said, according to reports from CNN Business Arabic and Al Jazeera.
The warning echoes concerns raised by other analysts, including Goldman Sachs, who have cautioned of prices exceeding $100 per barrel if disruptions are prolonged. India is reportedly seeking to bolster its strategic reserves in anticipation of potential supply shortages.
The potential for widespread disruptions to Gulf energy exports has already impacted markets, with crude oil prices rising sharply in the past week. Brent crude reached approximately $90-$95 per barrel, according to reports from El Watan News, due to the suspension of supplies since the start of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran on February 28th. This has led to reduced gas production in Qatar and increased domestic fuel prices in Doha for March by 2-8 percent.
Al Kaabi’s statements align with a similar warning issued by the minister to Arabi21, where he predicted that Gulf energy exports face a risk of halting within weeks if the conflict with Iran continues, potentially driving global oil prices to around $150 per barrel.
Qatar’s own production has been affected by the suspension of air travel and output, making the minister’s assessment particularly significant, though not directly substantiated by independent data at this time.
