German restaurants are bracing for a shift in pricing strategies as alcohol consumption declines, according to industry experts. The trend, confirmed by data from the Deutsche Hauptstelle für Suchtfragen (DHS), shows a steady decrease in per capita alcohol consumption – falling from 154 liters in 2000 to 120 liters in 2022, and further to 115 liters in 2023.
The changing drinking habits are poised to reshape the economics of dining out, experts say. Moritz Dietl, a gastronomy consultant at Treugast, explained that beverages typically account for 40 to 60 percent of restaurant revenue, a figure that rises significantly in establishments like traditional breweries. Even as beverage margins are often higher, Dietl points to inconsistent food cost control as a contributing factor. “Many restaurateurs don’t have a firm grip on their food costs,” he said, citing the need for precise recipe adherence and portion control. He noted that technologies like AI-powered plate scanning to minimize waste and optimize portions are not yet widely adopted.
Heineken Deutschland reports a 31 percent organic growth in its “Low-&-No-Alcohol” segment since 2020, with the restaurant sector showing a particularly strong preference for these alternatives. Jan Stickelmann, Sales Director at Heineken Deutschland, stated that the company is actively expanding its non-alcoholic offerings to meet the growing demand. “We are seeing a stronger overall trend towards premiumization,” Stickelmann said. “The focus is increasingly on quality, brand, and enjoyment, both for alcoholic and non-alcoholic beers.”
The price disparity between alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages is expected to narrow. Dietl questioned the logic of cheaper non-alcoholic options, asking, “Why should non-alcoholic drinks be cheaper?” He anticipates a move towards price equalization, particularly for complex cocktails.
Some restaurateurs are already considering significant menu adjustments. Billy Wagner, owner of the Michelin-starred Nobelhart & Schmutzig in Berlin, told the Tagesspiegel that water is becoming the dominant beverage choice, while non-alcoholic options haven’t generated the same revenue as alcohol. Wagner plans to offer “higher-quality” non-alcoholic beverages, potentially priced at €70 for two glasses.
Dietl cautioned that such high prices may be demanding to sustain, but acknowledged the need for adaptation. He observed a broader shift in dining culture, noting that in many countries with traditionally lower alcohol consumption, the restaurant industry remains vibrant. “Those who stubbornly cling to the past risk extinction,” he said.
Michael Bauer, a hotel and gastronomy reviewer, echoed this sentiment, predicting a decline in traditional establishments where long, alcohol-fueled gatherings were commonplace. He suggested that restaurants will need to expedite service to manage rising personnel costs, potentially limiting seating times. Bauer also noted a growing trend of diners being preoccupied with their mobile devices, shifting the social dynamic of the restaurant experience. “Today, you see mobile phones on every table,” he said. “This constant connectivity is impacting the restaurant industry as well.”
