Rogers’ Netflix Gamble: The “Nicky Bulls” Legacy Under Scrutiny

Netflix’s Bullish Future Faces a YouTube-Sized Windfall

Tom rogers, former president of NBC Cable and a vocal advocate for Netflix, is adjusting his outlook on the streaming giant.While still “bullish” on the company, the media veteran expressed growing concerns this week, pointing to the rising tide of free content on YouTube as a significant headwind.

Speaking to CNBC, Rogers, now CEO of AI company Clarity.ai, noted a paradox in Netflix’s success. “They rigidly have more hit shows than all other streaming services combined,” he observed. Though,when drilling down into subscriber growth and overall audience engagement,Rogers sees a troubling trend: “the viewing volume for each viewer has decreased.” This suggests that while Netflix might potentially be attracting new subscribers, the depth of engagement with existing ones might be shallowing.

This sentiment comes despite Netflix reporting a strong second-quarter earnings call on july 17th,exceeding both top- and bottom-line estimates and raising its annual guidance. Rogers himself acknowledged the positive report, stating, “There was nothing bad at all with its income.” He attributed the company’s success to a virtuous cycle: “Wager involvement is what is driving everything here. The amount of viewing that increases it increases the price increase that drives the programming budget that drives more excellent programming.”

Though, the market response has been less eager. Since its earnings report, Netflix’s stock has seen a notable dip, falling approximately 6% and nearing an 11% decline from its June 30th peak.

Compounding these concerns is the burgeoning influence of YouTube. According to Nielsen, while Netflix saw the largest monthly increase in viewers compared to its peers in June, YouTube captured a significant 13% of total monthly TV viewers, dwarfing Netflix’s 8%.

Rogers foresees artificial intelligence playing a pivotal role in this evolving landscape, describing it as a “double-edged sword” for Netflix. On one hand, AI is expected to bolster Netflix’s targeted advertising efforts and perhaps reduce programming costs. On the other hand,AI tools are empowering self-reliant content creators,a significant boon for platforms like YouTube.

“The border between professional and amateur content will become increasingly blurred, as the AI tools in amateur hands allow them to create things that look incredibly professional,” Rogers predicted. He believes that AI in the hands of YouTube’s creative community could elevate the platform to offer a professional programming level, further driving its viewership.

This surge in AI-assisted content creation could substantially challenge traditional media giants. While Google’s parent company, alphabet, has seen a modest 2% increase in its stock over the past year, the long-term implications of AI democratizing content creation are still unfolding.

Despite the emerging challenges,Rogers still believes Netflix can maintain its status as the world’s most valuable media company. Though, he cautions that the shift in audience engagement and the rise of AI-powered content is “something safe to watch” – a powerful undercurrent reshaping the media landscape. A Netflix spokesperson declined to comment on Rogers’ remarks during the company’s second-quarter earnings call.

How did Rogers’ initial strategic rationale for investing in “Nicky Bulls” align with its broader competitive goals in the Canadian media landscape?

The Initial Investment & Strategic Rationale

In late 2023, Rogers Communications made a important, and at the time, largely applauded move: a ample investment in Netflix original content, specifically a multi-year deal to produce and distribute a series tentatively titled “Nicky bulls” – a gritty, Canadian-produced drama centered around the world of competitive rodeo. The rationale, as publicly stated by Rogers’ CEO Tony Staffieri, was threefold: bolstering Canadian content creation, attracting and retaining subscribers to their Ignite TV and streaming bundles, and establishing Rogers as a key player in the burgeoning streaming wars.This represented a direct challenge to Bell Media’s dominance in Canadian content and a calculated risk to compete with the growing popularity of international streaming giants. The initial investment was estimated at $100 million CAD, with projections of a significant return through subscription revenue and licensing deals. Key terms included exclusive Canadian broadcast rights for Rogers and a commitment to a minimum of three seasons.

“Nicky Bulls”: Production Challenges & Critical Reception

The production of “Nicky Bulls” was promptly beset by challenges. Initial reports surfaced of creative clashes between the showrunners and Rogers executives regarding the level of grit and realism depicted. Concerns were raised about possibly alienating advertisers and maintaining a “family-friendly” image.these internal conflicts led to delays and budget overruns.

Upon its release in early 2025, “Nicky Bulls” received mixed reviews. While praised for its cinematography and the performances of its cast, critics largely lambasted the writing as cliché-ridden and the plot as predictable. The show’s attempt to blend the high-stakes world of rodeo with a convoluted crime subplot fell flat,according to many reviewers.

Rotten Tomatoes: 48% critic score, 62% audience score (as of July 26, 2025)

IMDb: 6.1/10 rating

Key Criticisms: Weak script, underdeveloped characters, and a lack of authentic rodeo representation.

Subscriber Impact & Rogers’ Streaming numbers

The most crucial metric – subscriber acquisition and retention – paints a concerning picture for Rogers. While initial viewership numbers were respectable, driven by pre-existing Rogers subscribers curious about the new offering, “Nicky Bulls” failed to attract a significant influx of new customers.

hear’s a breakdown of the impact:

1. Ignite TV Bundle Subscribers: A modest 3% increase in subscribers choosing the bundle with Netflix access in the first quarter of 2025.
2. Rogers Streaming Service (Rogers Anyplace TV): No discernible impact on subscriber growth. The service continues to lag behind competitors like Crave and Amazon Prime Video in Canada.
3. Churn Rate: A slight increase in churn rate among subscribers who initially signed up for the bundle specifically to watch “Nicky Bulls,” indicating dissatisfaction with the content.
4. Netflix Canada Impact: Netflix Canada saw a minor,temporary bump in subscriptions coinciding with the show’s release,but this was attributed to broader marketing efforts and not solely to “Nicky Bulls.”

The Financial Fallout & Cost Analysis

The financial implications of the “Nicky Bulls” gamble are becoming increasingly apparent. The $100 million investment, coupled with production overruns estimated at $20 million, represents a substantial financial burden for rogers. Licensing revenue has been minimal,with limited international interest in the series.

Estimated Total Cost: $120 million CAD

Projected Revenue (to date): $35 million CAD (from subscription revenue and limited licensing)

Net Loss: Approximately $85 million CAD

Analysts are now questioning whether Rogers adequately assessed the market demand for a niche drama like “Nicky Bulls.” The focus on a specific, potentially limited audience, rather than broader appeal content, is being cited as a key misstep.

Lessons Learned & Future Strategy for rogers

The “Nicky Bulls” experience offers valuable lessons for Rogers and othre Canadian media companies navigating the streaming landscape.

Content Diversification: Avoid placing all bets on a single, high-risk project.A diversified content portfolio is crucial.

Audience Research: Conduct thorough market research to identify content with broad appeal and demonstrable demand.

Creative Freedom: allow showrunners and creatives greater artistic freedom, even if it means taking calculated risks. Micromanagement can stifle creativity and result in a bland,uninspired product.

Strategic Partnerships: Explore co-production opportunities with established streaming platforms to share risk and expand reach.

* Focus on Canadian Stories with Worldwide Themes: Invest in Canadian content that resonates with both domestic and international audiences.

Rogers has recently announced a shift in strategy, focusing on partnerships with autonomous Canadian production companies and a broader range of content genres, including comedy, reality television, and documentaries. The future of Rogers’ streaming ambitions hinges on its ability to learn from the “Nicky Bulls” legacy and adapt to the evolving demands of the streaming market. The company is now actively seeking to leverage its 5G network to deliver enhanced streaming experiences and bundled offerings, hoping to regain lost ground in the competitive Canadian media landscape.