- Sarah Rainford
- BBC Eastern Europe Correspondent
Over the past month, Ukrainian forces have repelled the Russian army and regained control of large parts of the occupied territories
“The truth is on our side, and the truth is strength!” Russian President Vladimir Putin said through the microphone in Red Square last week, following a grand ceremony announcing that four large parts of Ukrainian territory had become part of Russia.
He added: “Victory will be ours!”
But in the real world, things look completely different.
Even as the Russian president signed illegal annexation treaties in the Kremlin, Ukrainian forces were advancing into the areas he had just conquered.
Hundreds of thousands of men fled Russia to avoid being recruited to fight in an expanding war.
Things are going so badly on the battlefield that Putin and his supporters are now recasting what they claimed was the “de-Nazification” of Ukraine and the protection of Russian speakers as an existential battle once morest the entire “collective” West.
This is the truth, but it is not in Russia’s favor.
victim of his system
“He’s in a blind spot. He doesn’t seem to really see what’s going on,” Anton Barbashin, editor-in-chief of the Russian website Riddle, said of the Russian president.
As with many, the Russian political analyst believes that Putin has been quite surprised by the strong Western support for Kiev, as well as Ukraine’s fierce resistance to the occupation.
With the Russian leader in his 70s today, and following more than 20 years in power, he appears to have become a victim of his regime, his authoritarian style impeding his access to sound intelligence.
“You can’t question his ideas,” explains Tatiana Stanovaya, president of the analytics firm R-Politic.
“Everyone who works with Mr. Putin knows his worldview, and with respect to Ukraine they know his expectations. Thus, they cannot give him information that contradicts his vision. That’s the way things are.”
The president’s recent speech, delivered under the Kremlin’s gilded chandeliers, reaffirmed his vision of a new world order.
This vision centers around a strong Russia, a weary Western world forced to learn respect, and Kyiv’s subjugation once once more to Moscow.
To achieve this, Ukraine is Putin’s chosen battlefield.
Although his ambitions seem very deceptive, he does not seem ready to back down.
“A lot of the key calculations the Kremlin was counting on didn’t work out, and Putin doesn’t seem to have a plan B, other than to keep pushing people to the front line in the hope that these massive numbers of fighters will prevent Ukraine from advancing further,” says Anton Barbashin.
Recruiters
For Barbashin, “pushing people to the front line” is an important shift in itself.
Vladimir Putin continues to describe his invasion as a “special military operation” – describing it as limited in scope and short-lived.
And many Russians accepted – and even supported – this when it was not directly affecting them. But the mobilization of reservists turned something remote and abstract into a very close and very personal risk.
Regional politicians are keen to engage in a Soviet-style race to meet the number of fighters required of them, and summon as many men as possible.
“This is a defining moment,” says Barbashin. “For most Russians, the war just started two weeks ago.”
“In the first months, the people dying were mostly from the suburbs and smaller centres. But mobilization will eventually change that, as the coffins will return to Moscow and St. Petersburg.”
‘simply horrific’ conditions
The mobilization led to a plethora of chatter on social media by the wives and mothers of the new recruits – those who had not rushed to the border when the mobilization was announced.
Some of their posts – and videos posted by the men themselves – reveal horrific conditions: bad food, old weapons, and a lack of basic medical supplies. Women talk regarding sending sanitary towels to line men’s shoes and tampons to bandage their wounds!
The governor of the Kursk region described conditions in many military units as “simply appalling”, to the point where there was a shortage of uniforms for soldiers.
Such discoveries have punched holes in one of Putin’s proudest claims: that he has rebuilt the Russian military into a professional fighting force that patriots will want to serve.
But for now, the wives of most recruits seem to focus on rallying behind the Russian forces.
“We are at a point where a large part of Russian society still believes that ‘Russia is a superpower fighting NATO in Ukraine’, and that sending tampons, socks and toothbrushes to the crowd is a sign of patriotism,” Barbashin said in a tweet this week.
picture released, Getty Images
A large number of Russians have fled across the border with Kazakhstan to avoid being drafted into the army during the past two weeks
Censorship is collapsing
But the chaos of Russia’s military mobilization and embarrassment is prompting prominent figures to speak out.
When the liberals condemned the invasion of Ukraine, they were arrested, and many remain behind bars.
It is even illegal to describe what is happening as a “war”. But in circles loyal to the Kremlin, the word is now popular, despite heavy criticism of the Russian military leadership.
Another deputy, Andrei Kartapolov, this week called on the Defense Ministry to “stop lying” regarding Russian difficulties, because “our people are far from stupid.”
Margarita Simonyan, editor of the RT TV channel, cited Stalin’s execution of “cowardly” and “incompetent” generals.
But there is no public questioning of the invasion itself, let alone Vladimir Putin.
Simonyan refers to Putin as “the president” and speaks enthusiastically of the annexation of Ukrainian territory as a historic achievement.
Tatiana Stanovaya notes that “there is no anti-war political movement”, especially in a politically repressive climate.
“Even those who oppose the mobilization choose to flee,” she says. “Some try to leave the country, others are hiding. But we don’t see attempts to create any political resistance.”
She notes that this might change if Russia continues to lose and absorb more forces.
“Putin has to score some victories,” she says.
A “holy” war with the West
Even the president hinted at problems this week, describing the situation in the annexed areas as “troubled”.
But there is a huge effort to assert that the reason behind Russia’s setbacks is the “collective” West that supports Ukraine.
State media hosts are now describing the land grab in Ukraine as something far greater, seemingly pushing the nation into an even bigger fight.
“This is our war with complete Satanism,” Vladimir Solovyov told viewers this week.
He added, “It is not regarding Ukraine. The West’s goal is clear, which is regime change and the dismemberment of Russia so that Russia no longer exists.”
This is the “truth” that Vladimir Putin believes in, and that is why the current moment of weakness for Russia is also a moment of risk.
“This war is existential for Russia, and therefore victory should be possible for Putin,” says Tatiana Stanovaya.
It says bluntly, “He has nuclear weapons.”
“I think he hopes that the West will move away from Ukraine at some level of nuclear escalation,” she says.
And Stanovaya wasn’t the only one to notice Putin’s more radical tone. “It seems that this is what he really thinks: This is the last stand of the Russian Empire, an all-out war with the West,” says Barbashin.
“We are at the finish line, whether Russia succeeds in it or not,” he adds.
Of course, this is also the “truth” that Vladimir Putin now needs to believe in the West more than ever.
