Russia’s Warview 2026: Propaganda, Enemies, and the Trump Hope

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Russian Public Opinion Shifts: A Nation Surrounded by Enemies

Berlin – A recent survey reveals a significant shift in russian public opinion, with a growing perception of being surrounded by hostile foreign powers. The findings, presented by Sociologist Lev gudkov of the autonomous Levada Center Moscow, point to the powerful influence of state-sponsored propaganda in shaping this worldview, especially in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The Rise of a Victimhood Narrative

According to the research conducted on behalf of the German Sakharov Foundation,a majority of Russians now believe their country is unfairly targeted by external forces. This sentiment has intensified over the past four years of the Ukraine war, representing a substantial increase from historical views. In 1998, just 36 Percent of Russians considered their nation to be non-aggressive, but by 2024, that figure had climbed to 65 Percent.

Gudkov highlighted a concerning “militarization of consciousness” within Russian society,suggesting a normalization of conflict and an increased willingness to view military intervention as justifiable. Russia, despite a relatively limited history of outright warfare in the post-Soviet era—only six years of armed conflict in over three decades—is increasingly perceived as acting defensively against external aggression.

Who Are the Enemies? And Who Are the Allies?

The survey identified specific countries viewed with hostility. Poland and Lithuania topped the list, perceived as unfavorable by 62 Percent of respondents. Great Britain followed closely at 57 Percent, with Germany at 50 Percent and Sweden at 40 Percent. The United States, while not universally viewed as hostile, was predominantly categorized as a competitor by 53 Percent of those surveyed.

Conversely, Belarus, China, Kazakhstan, India, and North Korea were most frequently cited as kind nations. Notably, with the exception of India, these nations generally operate under authoritarian or repressive regimes. This alignment suggests a preference for partnerships with governments that share similar political ideologies.

The Trump Factor: A Hope for Peace?

Interestingly, the study revealed a fluctuating perception of the United States, heavily influenced by the U.S. President. Support for Russia dipped under President Joe Biden due to his management’s robust support for Ukraine. However,it increased during the presidency of Donald Trump,who had previously signaled a desire for a swift resolution to the conflict.

Gudkov explained that many Russians harbor the belief that Trump would bring about peace, given Vladimir Putin’s perceived unwillingness to end the war. This illustrates a widespread sense of fatigue with the ongoing conflict, coupled with a disillusionment with the current political landscape. This desire for peace, however, doesn’t translate into a willingness to compromise, as many Russians anticipate a Ukrainian capitulation.

A Table of perceived Friendliness

Country	Percentage viewed as Friendly
Belarus	[Data not provided in source]
China	[Data not provided in source]
Kazakhstan	[Data not provided in source]
India	[Data not provided in source]
North Korea	[Data not provided in source]

The Kremlin’s narrative consistently portrays Russia as a victim of Western aggression, a theme that appears to have resonated deeply with the population. This framing shapes both domestic policy and international relations, solidifying a sense of isolation and distrust. The Council on Foreign Relations provides further context on Russia’s foreign policy objectives.

What is the Kremlin’s strategy for portraying the Ukraine war and Donald Trump’s influence on the conflict narrative by 2026?

Russia’s Warview 2026: Propaganda, Enemies, and the Trump Hope

The Evolving Narrative: Domestic Consumption & International Positioning

By 2026, Russia’s state-controlled media ecosystem has become a finely tuned machine, relentlessly shaping public perception of the conflict in Ukraine. The core narrative remains consistent: Russia is not the aggressor, but a defender against a unfriendly West, specifically NATO expansion and perceived “neo-Nazism” within Ukraine. however, the nuances have shifted.Early messaging focused heavily on a swift “special military operation” to “denazify” and “demilitarize” Ukraine. Now,the emphasis is on a protracted struggle for survival against an existential threat,framing the war as a continuation of past conflicts – a new Great Patriotic War.

This shift is demonstrably linked to battlefield realities. Initial expectations of a speedy victory have been replaced wiht a narrative of resilience and strategic adaptation. The focus has moved from liberating territory to protecting “new territories” – the illegally annexed regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson – and safeguarding Russian citizens.

Key Propaganda Themes in 2026:

* Western Decline: A constant drumbeat of stories highlighting economic woes, political instability, and social divisions within the US and Europe. This aims to undermine faith in Western support for Ukraine.

* Ukraine as a Puppet State: Portraying Ukraine as entirely controlled by the US and NATO, lacking agency and simply serving as a proxy in a larger geopolitical game.

* Moral Equivalence: Attempts to equate Russian actions with those of the West, citing historical interventions and alleged human rights abuses.

* The “Collective West” as the Enemy: Broadening the scope of the enemy beyond Ukraine to encompass the entire NATO alliance and any nation supporting Kyiv.

* Glorification of Russian Sacrifice: Elevating the status of Russian soldiers and portraying their sacrifices as heroic and necessary for national survival. This is ofen coupled with downplaying casualties and emphasizing the “voluntary” nature of service.

The Enemy List: Expanding Beyond Ukraine

While Ukraine remains the primary target of Russian propaganda, the list of perceived enemies has expanded substantially.

1. The United States: Consistently depicted as the architect of the conflict, providing weapons, intelligence, and financial support to Ukraine.
2. NATO: Framed as an aggressive military alliance seeking to encircle and destabilize Russia.
3. European Union: Accused of blindly following US foreign policy and imposing harmful sanctions on Russia.
4. Individual Politicians & Analysts: Those critical of the Kremlin are routinely labeled as “Russophobes” or “enemies of the people.”
5. Self-reliant Media: any media outlet providing unbiased coverage of the war is branded as “fake news” and subjected to censorship or outright bans within Russia.

The Trump Factor: A Beacon of Hope for the kremlin

The prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency in 2025 has injected a palpable sense of optimism within the Kremlin. Trump’s past statements questioning the value of NATO, his admiration for Vladimir Putin, and his expressed desire for a quick resolution to the conflict have been seized upon by Russian state media.

* Trump’s Rhetoric as Validation: Trump’s criticisms of NATO allies and his questioning of US commitments to European security are presented as proof that the West is fractured and losing its resolve.

* Potential for Sanctions Relief: The possibility of Trump easing or lifting sanctions on Russia is viewed as a major economic possibility.

* A Shift in US Policy: The Kremlin hopes that a Trump administration would adopt a more isolationist foreign policy, reducing US support for Ukraine and possibly recognizing Russian territorial gains.

* Exploiting Divisions: Russian propaganda actively amplifies any divisions within the US political landscape,aiming to further undermine public trust in the government and its foreign policy objectives.

Case Study: The Azovstal Steel Plant narrative (2022-2026)

The siege of Mariupol’s Azovstal steel plant in 2022 provides a clear illustration of how Russian propaganda evolves. Initially, the plant was portrayed as a stronghold of “neo-Nazi” Azov fighters. As Ukrainian defenders held out for weeks, the narrative shifted to emphasize the “humanitarian” concerns for civilians allegedly trapped inside (despite evidence suggesting many civilians had already evacuated). By 2026,the Azovstal siege is presented as a demonstration of russian military prowess and a victory over “foreign mercenaries” and “extremist elements.” The narrative consistently downplays the immense destruction inflicted on Mariupol and the suffering of its civilian population.

Real-World Examples: Disinformation Campaigns & Social Media manipulation

Russia continues to employ elegant disinformation campaigns on social media platforms. Thes campaigns utilize:

* Bot Networks: Automated accounts designed to amplify pro-Russian narratives and spread misinformation.

* Troll Farms: Organized groups of individuals tasked with creating and disseminating propaganda online.

* Deepfakes & Manipulated Media: The use of artificial intelligence to create convincing but fabricated videos and images.

* Targeted Advertising: Using data analytics to identify and target specific demographics with tailored propaganda messages.

The Impact of Censorship & Facts Control

Within Russia, access to independent information is severely restricted. Most foreign media outlets have been banned, and domestic media is tightly controlled by the state. This creates an echo chamber where citizens are primarily exposed to pro-Kremlin narratives. The suppression of dissent and the persecution of journalists and activists further reinforce this information control.Recent reports indicate a growing reliance on messaging apps like Telegram as a source of information, even though the platform is also