Sabah Election: High Stakes for Anwar, Parties, and Voters

Sabah, Malaysia’s easternmost state on Borneo, has a political history marked by a dizzying array of maneuvers, defections, and even attempted coups. When it comes to shifting governments, Sabah stands out in Malaysia, having seen its leadership change hands more than five times, a testament to its perpetually turbulent political landscape.

The volatility was starkly illustrated in 2018, immediately following Malaysia’s watershed 14th General Election. The concurrent Sabah State Election resulted in a dramatic deadlock.The Heritage-Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) coalitions each secured 29 seats, while Parti Solidariti Airku (Star) claimed the remaining two.

On may 10, 2018, incumbent Sabah Chief Minister musa aman of BN declared he had formed a government with 31 assemblymen from BN and STAR. He promptly requested the state governor, Tun Juhar Mahiruddin, to swear him in. Tho, the very next day, six BN assemblymen defected to Shafie Apdal’s Warisan party, shifting the balance of power to 35 assemblymen. By the evening of May 13, the governor asked Musa to step down. When Musa refused, the governor officially notified him in writing that he was no longer chief minister, effective May 12. Shafie Apdal was then sworn in as the new chief minister.

The political drama escalated with a coup attempt in September 2020, orchestrated by Musa and supported by defectors from the ruling Warisan Plus coalition.Shafie Apdal responded decisively, securing the governor’s consent to dissolve the state assembly on July 30, triggering a snap election. Though, this move backfired, as Heritage Plus secured only 32 seats, falling short of the gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition’s 38 seats. GRS, at the time, comprised local parties alongside Peninsula-based United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) and Parti pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu). Analysts attributed GRS’s victory in part to the backing of then-Malaysian Prime Minister and Bersatu President Muhyiddin Yassin.

The instability continued.Following the 15th General Election in 2022, which saw Bersatu and its Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition fail to form the federal government, Bersatu’s Sabah assemblymen collectively quit the party. This bloc, including current Sabah Chief Minister Hajiji Noor, took control of the dormant Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan), already a component of GRS, in December 2022.

The year 2023 brought yet another political crisis, dubbed the “Kinabalu Move.” It commenced on January 6 when BN withdrew its support for Hajiji, paving the way for a failed coup attempt led by Sabah UMNO leader Bung Moktar Radin and Warisan’s Shafie Apdal. This episode concluded with the state assembly’s approval of an anti-hopping law on May 23,an initiative aimed at curbing the endemic political instability that has long defined Sabah’s governance.

How might the outcome of the Sabah election influence the stability of Anwar Ibrahim’s federal government?

The Political Landscape of Sabah

The upcoming Sabah state election, scheduled for September 21st, 2024, represents a pivotal moment in Malaysian politics. Following a period of political instability at the federal level, this election is being closely watched as a barometer of public sentiment and a potential realignment of power. The stakes are particularly high for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, as well as for the various competing parties vying for control of the state.key search terms related to this election include “Sabah state election 2024,” “Sabah political crisis,” and “Anwar ibrahim Sabah.”

Anwar Ibrahim’s position and PH’s Strategy

For Anwar, a strong showing in Sabah is crucial to solidify his position as Prime Minister and demonstrate the viability of his unity government. PH, along with its allies, aims to secure a pleasant majority in the 73-seat Sabah State Legislative Assembly.

Federal Support: The federal government has pledged increased development funds for Sabah, a key strategy to win over voters. This includes infrastructure projects and economic initiatives designed to address long-standing grievances regarding federal-state relations.

Coalition Dynamics: PH is contesting under the banner of “Sabah Unity Government,” partnering with local Sabah-based parties like Upko and Warisan.Managing these coalition dynamics will be critical to a unified campaign.

Key Issues: PH’s campaign focuses on good governance, economic opportunities, and addressing the cost of living. They are also emphasizing the importance of stability after recent political turmoil. Related keywords: “Pakatan Harapan Sabah,” “Sabah unity Government,” “Anwar ibrahim Sabah pledges.”

The Opposition’s Challenge: GRS and BN

The main opposition force is Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS),led by Chief Minister hajiji Noor,and supported by Barisan Nasional (BN).This alliance presents a formidable challenge to PH.

Local Strength: GRS benefits from strong local support and Hajiji’s popularity as Chief Minister. They are positioning themselves as the defenders of sabah’s rights and autonomy.

BN’s Role: BN, traditionally a dominant force in Sabah, is seeking to regain lost ground. Their performance will be a key indicator of their resurgence in East Malaysia.

Campaign focus: GRS and BN are emphasizing continuity, stability, and the importance of a Sabah-led government. They are also highlighting concerns about potential federal interference. Keywords: “Gabungan Rakyat Sabah,” “Hajiji Noor Sabah,” “Barisan Nasional Sabah.”

Voter Demographics and Key Constituencies

Understanding Sabah’s diverse voter demographics is essential to predicting the election outcome.

Kadazan-Dusun-Murut (KDM) Community: The KDM community constitutes the largest ethnic group in Sabah and their voting preferences will be decisive in many constituencies.

Malay and Muslim Voters: A significant portion of the electorate is Malay and Muslim, and their support will be crucial for both PH and GRS/BN.

Chinese Community: The Chinese community,concentrated in urban areas,traditionally supports PH but their voting patterns can be influenced by local issues.

Key Constituencies: Constituencies like Sepanggar, Kota Kinabalu, and Sandakan are considered bellwethers, reflecting the broader political trends in the state. Search terms: “Sabah voter demographics,” “KDM voters Sabah,” “Sabah election key constituencies.”

Potential Outcomes and Implications

Several scenarios are possible in the Sabah election, each with significant implications for Malaysian politics.

1. PH-led Victory: A clear victory for PH and its allies would strengthen Anwar’s government and allow him to implement his policies with greater confidence.
2. GRS/BN Victory: A win for GRS and BN could lead to a realignment of power, potentially challenging Anwar’s leadership and forcing a renegotiation of the federal-state relationship.
3. Hung Assembly: A hung assembly would result in a period of political uncertainty and potentially lead to another round of negotiations and power-sharing arrangements.

The Role of Undecided voters

A significant portion of Sabah voters remain undecided, making their preferences crucial to the election outcome. Factors influencing these voters include:

economic Concerns: The cost of living,job opportunities,and economic development are major concerns for voters.

Local Issues: Issues such as land rights, infrastructure, and access to healthcare are also vital considerations.

Candidate Credibility: Voters are looking for candidates who are trustworthy, competent, and committed to serving their communities. Keywords: “Sabah undecided voters,” “Sabah election issues,” “Sabah candidate profiles.”

Ancient Context: Sabah’s Political Evolution

Sabah has a complex political history, marked by shifts in alliances and periods of instability. Understanding this history is crucial to interpreting the current election dynamics.

Early Years: Sabah was initially ruled by the United Sabah national