San Diego’s Metropolitan Transit System (MTS) is grappling with a puzzling decline in trolley ridership, a setback that threatens $8.4 million in revenue, according to officials. Even as initial explanations centered on fears related to increased Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity and rising household costs, some residents are suggesting alternative factors are at play. The unexpected drop in ridership is slowing the agency’s progress toward restoring pre-pandemic levels of service.
The dip, a 1.3% decrease since July, has prompted a search for answers beyond the official narrative. MTS CEO Sharon Cooney stated that the agency is seeing similar trends in other border regions, attributing the decline to anxieties surrounding ICE enforcement. She also noted that increased financial pressures on households are leading people to cut back on non-essential trips, even if public transit is their primary mode of transportation. “We also see that people will travel less — even though transit is their primary mode of transportation — if their household expenses are too high and they can’t afford to do other leisure activities,” Cooney told the MTS Executive Committee last week.
Alternative Theories Emerge from Residents
However, some San Diego residents are questioning whether the official explanations fully account for the shift in commuting patterns. Kathline Lerario of Rancho Peñasquitos suggests the recent expansion of bike lanes may be drawing former trolley riders onto bicycles. “I don’t suppose ICE and affordability are the factors behind the decrease in ridership. Previous riders are now using all the new bike lanes instead,” Lerario wrote in a recent communication. This observation highlights a potential impact of the city’s investment in alternative transportation infrastructure.
Another resident, Steve Schneider of Tierrasanta, points to a recent increase in trash collection fees as a possible contributing factor. He notes that many residents are now facing an additional $600 annual expense for trash service, which was previously included in property taxes. “Could it be that because many residents now must pay nearly $600 extra each year for trash collection that was previously included in their already-high property taxes, they can no longer afford to ride the Trolley?” Schneider asked.
Financial Strain and ICE Concerns
The concerns over affordability align with the MTS’s own assessment. The agency acknowledges that rising costs are impacting riders’ ability to afford leisure trips, even if they rely on the trolley for essential travel. This is particularly relevant for lower-income transit users, who may be forced to prioritize essential expenses over discretionary spending. The impact of increased ICE enforcement, while difficult to quantify, is also a significant concern. Reports of ICE raids, such as one at an Italian restaurant in San Diego in June 2025, have heightened anxieties within immigrant communities, potentially discouraging them from using public transportation. Neighbors reacted with fear following the raid, expressing concerns about the potential for similar actions.
Councilmember Sean Elo-Rivera, a member of the MTS Executive Committee, emphasized the need to address safety concerns related to ICE activity. He urged the transit agency to prioritize efforts to ensure riders feel safe from immigration enforcement. The agency has not yet announced specific measures to address these concerns, but the issue is expected to be a key focus of future discussions.
Looking Ahead
The MTS is continuing to analyze ridership data to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to the decline. The agency is also exploring potential strategies to mitigate the financial impact of the drop in revenue. Whether the decline is primarily driven by ICE fears, affordability issues, or a combination of factors – including the increased availability of alternative transportation options – remains to be seen. The coming months will be crucial in determining the long-term trajectory of trolley ridership in San Diego.
What do you think is the primary cause of the decline in San Diego Trolley ridership? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
