The Shifting Sands of the Middle East: How the Saudi-UAE Rift Threatens Regional Stability
The Middle East is bracing for a potentially seismic shift. A growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – once cornerstones of regional cooperation – isn’t just a diplomatic spat; it’s a fundamental challenge to the emerging order in a region historically defined by instability. At stake is the future of fragile states like Yemen, Sudan, and Libya, and the potential for a power vacuum that could be filled by rivals like Iran, Turkey, or even lead to outright chaos.
From Alliance to Estrangement: The Roots of the Divide
The public fallout began with disagreements over the actions of UAE-backed southern Yemeni separatists near the Saudi border. However, the conflict quickly escalated, revealing deeper, long-simmering tensions. These tensions stem from fundamentally different approaches to regional security. Saudi Arabia prioritizes strengthening national governments and maintaining territorial integrity, while the UAE increasingly favors backing non-state actors and pursuing a more assertive, interventionist foreign policy. This divergence, as Hesham Alghannam of the Carnegie Middle East Center notes, represents a “broader divergence in regional visions and strategic priorities.”
Yemen: The Catalyst for Conflict
Yemen served as the immediate trigger. Saudi Arabia, leading a military coalition since 2015 to counter Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, publicly criticized the UAE’s support for southern separatists, ultimately leading to a UAE withdrawal. While this withdrawal temporarily quelled tensions in Yemen, it didn’t resolve the underlying issues. The incident highlighted the UAE’s willingness to pursue its own agenda, even if it clashes with Saudi objectives. This pattern of independent action is at the heart of Riyadh’s concerns.
Beyond Yemen: A Regional Power Struggle
The conflict extends far beyond Yemen’s borders. Saudi Arabia views the UAE’s involvement in Libya, supporting General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, and alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan as destabilizing. These actions, Riyadh argues, undermine the authority of legitimate governments and fuel chronic instability. The UAE, however, defends its actions as necessary to counter extremism and promote regional security, emphasizing a preference for “restraint over escalation.”
The Shadow of Israel and a New Regional Alignment
Adding another layer of complexity is Saudi Arabia’s unease over the growing relationship between the UAE and Israel, formalized through the Abraham Accords in 2020. Riyadh fears that a coordinated strategy between Abu Dhabi and Jerusalem is aimed at “fragmenting” the Arab world, potentially undermining Saudi Arabia’s regional leadership. This concern is amplified by the UAE’s tacit support for the breakaway Somaliland region and Israel’s subsequent recognition of it. Some analysts suggest a new “Israeli-Emirati arc of influence” is emerging, challenging Saudi dominance.
The Stakes are High: Implications for Regional Stability
The implications of this escalating rivalry are significant. A fractured Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), traditionally a bulwark of regional stability, could jeopardize efforts to address critical challenges. These include advancing the Gaza ceasefire, preventing the collapse of the Syrian government, and bolstering Lebanon’s fragile institutions. The dispute is already reverberating across Africa, with reports of the UAE withdrawing from military bases in Somalia, potentially disrupting arms flows to Sudan.
A Post-Iran Middle East? The Opportunity and the Risk
Ironically, this rift emerges at a time when Iran’s regional influence is at a low point. The potential for a more moderate, stable Middle East is within reach, but the Saudi-UAE dispute threatens to derail that opportunity. As one anonymous diplomat put it, if the two countries “fall too far apart, the axis of cooperation will be no more and the current vacuum in the Middle East could be filled by Turkey, Israel, or chaos.” The future of the region hinges on whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE can overcome their differences and forge a new path forward.
Ultimately, the future of the Middle East isn’t solely determined by the actions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. External actors, including the United States, will play a crucial role in mediating the dispute and fostering a renewed sense of cooperation. However, the onus is on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to prioritize regional stability over national ambitions. The alternative – a fragmented, chaotic Middle East – is a risk none of the stakeholders can afford to take. What are your predictions for the future of Saudi-UAE relations and their impact on the broader region? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
