Breaking News: CIA Assessment Warned of Wider Venezuela Conflict if U.S. Backed Opposition, as Maduro Regime Remains in Control
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WASHINGTON — A tightly held CIA analysis, ordered by the White House, warned that supporting Venezuela’s democratic opposition could spark a broader confrontation across the contry.
The document was prepared in the run-up to a decision on a U.S. operation described as Absolute Resolve, the weekend mission that resulted in Maduro and his wife being taken from a Caracas residence.
Following the operation, President Donald Trump announced results that surprised a wary Venezuelan public. He signaled that his governance would work with Maduro’s handpicked vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who has since been installed as interim president, while most of Maduro’s government remains in place.
Analysts noted that openly backing the opposition would likely have required military support, given the loyalty of the armed forces to Maduro. One official emphasized the risk of repeating a misstep seen during Iraq’s stabilization, where de-Baathification contributed to armed resistance against U.S. forces.
The assessment did not circulate among all 18 agencies in the U.S. intelligence community, and the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was largely absent from the deliberations and has not publicly commented on the operation, even as CIA personnel were operating in the field.
The core team behind Absolute Resolve reportedly included the Homeland Security adviser, the defense secretary, the secretary of state, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the CIA director. They reportedly met regularly for months, sometimes daily.
The existence of the CIA assessment was first reported by a major financial publication. Signs point to some pre-operation contact between Rodríguez and Trump’s team, though the White house has denied advance notice of Maduro’s ouster.
Evan Ellis,a former adviser on Latin America policy,suggested there may have been a calculation to work with Rodríguez,noting that the issue was less about democracy and more about political convenience.
Rodríguez has previously been described as a touchpoint with the Biden administration and as someone who was in touch with a high‑profile Trump aide in the early stages of the second term as Washington explored engagement with Caracas. An indictment against Maduro named multiple other senior officials but did not name Rodríguez.
Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president at a ceremony attended by diplomats from Russia, China and Iran. Public remarks from Rodríguez have mixed messages, vows against foreign domination, while signaling a willingness to foster cooperation with Washington.
Ellis argued that Rodríguez could not publicly admit any deal with Washington, underscoring a political need to avoid appearing aligned with the U.S.He added that the decision may reflect personal dynamics rather than a straightforward democratic favor.
In a television interview, Maria Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and key opposition figure, said she had not yet spoken with Trump as the weekend operation but hoped to soon. Machado offered to share her prize with Trump as a token of gratitude, and she framed the move as a meaningful step toward a democratic transition.
Machado praised the weekend actions as historic, describing them as a potential pathway back to democracy after years of Maduro’s rule.
Key facts At a Glance
| Event | Date / timeframe | Key Figures | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIA assessment | Before decision on Absolute Resolve | Authored for White House,by top security officials | Warned of broader conflict if opposition backed |
| Operation Absolute Resolve | Weekend of the operation | Maduro and wife seized; Rodríguez named interim president | Dramatic change in venezuela’s leadership without full regime topple |
| Interim presidency | following weekend | Delcy Rodríguez | Rodríguez leads,with Maduro’s government largely intact |
| Indictment | Shortly after operation | Maduro and several senior officials | Rodríguez not named in the indictment |
| Diplomatic reception | Monday after the operation | Rodríguez in ceremony with Russia,China,Iran | Signals mixed external support and legitimacy challenges |
Evergreen Takeaways
Analysts caution that intelligence misalignment among U.S. agencies can complicate policy choices, especially when operations hinge on fragile workplace coalitions and shifting leadership. The Venezuelan crisis underscores how interim authorities can inherit power with unclear international legitimacy, influencing future negotiations and sanctions strategy. The episode also highlights how internal debates within the U.S. intelligence community can shape, or constrain, executive decisions in high-stakes foreign policy.
Reader Questions
1) How should Washington balance its push for democratic governance with regional stability when leadership changes occur in Venezuela?
2) What signals should the United States consider most credible when engaging with an interim government that inherits power mid-crisis?
Share your thoughts below and tell us which factor you think will most shape Venezuela’s trajectory in the next 12 months.
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