A widespread and dangerous severe weather outbreak is unfolding across the Plains states, stretching from Texas to Iowa, with the potential for strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The National Weather Service has issued warnings for multiple states as a multi-day siege of thunderstorms is expected to continue through next week, bringing not only severe weather but also the risk of flash flooding.
The most significant threat is focused on Friday, with a Level 3 out of 5 severe storm risk issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This indicates the potential for numerous supercell thunderstorms capable of producing strong tornadoes – defined as EF2 intensity or higher – from northern Texas into southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa. Residents in cities like Austin, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines, Chicago, Madison, and St. Louis are urged to monitor conditions closely.
Several tornadoes were reported Thursday evening in western and northwestern Oklahoma, near Cleo Springs and Wakita, signaling the start of this escalating weather event. The SPC warns that conditions are favorable for a more widespread and intense outbreak of severe thunderstorms throughout Friday, extending as far north as southern Minnesota and into the southern Great Lakes region, including the Chicago area.
Beyond Friday, the severe weather pattern is expected to persist. Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday from the Ohio Valley and Appalachians to eastern and central Texas. Further south, a few strong storms are forecast for Sunday along a stalling frontal boundary. Early to mid-next week, another round of severe weather is anticipated as a cold front moves through the central and eastern U.S., driven by a low-pressure system over northern Mexico.
Flash Flood Risk Accompanies Severe Storms
The threat isn’t limited to tornadoes and high winds. Locally heavy rainfall is expected with each wave of thunderstorms, increasing the risk of flash flooding. Parts of the Ohio Valley and Plains have already experienced flooding this week, with water rescues needed Wednesday on the south side of the Dallas metro area. Dallas recorded 1.55 inches of rain on Tuesday, breaking a daily record of 1.27 inches set in 1937. St. Louis also saw a record rainfall of 1.74 inches on Tuesday, surpassing the previous record of 1.5 inches from 1935.
The SPC forecasts that areas from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi and Ohio valleys could receive an additional 3 or more inches of rain through the middle of next week, potentially exacerbating flood conditions, particularly in eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northward into the Ohio Valley.
Drought Conditions and La Niña’s Influence
This rainfall is particularly needed in the South, where drought conditions persist. The current drought is linked to the ongoing La Niña weather pattern, which typically results in a warmer and drier winter for the region. La Niña causes the jet stream to shift northward, sending most precipitation and cooler temperatures further north.
Authorities urge residents in affected areas to stay informed, and prepared. This includes having multiple ways to receive National Weather Service watches and warnings, including alerts that can wake you during the night, and knowing the safest place to shelter during a severe thunderstorm or tornado.
The severe weather threat is expected to evolve throughout the weekend and into next week. The SPC has already highlighted another potential for severe storms on Tuesday, potentially impacting some of the same areas affected this week. Residents should continue to monitor forecasts from reliable sources, such as the National Weather Service and The Weather Channel, for the latest updates.
As this dynamic weather situation unfolds, staying informed and prepared is crucial for ensuring safety. Continue to monitor forecasts and heed the advice of local authorities.
Share this information with your friends and family, and let us know your thoughts in the comments below.
