Silver Near $70 as Fed Rate Cuts Loom and US Bond Yields Test Key Support

Breaking: Silver Holds Above $60 as Fed Outlook Keeps Markets in suspense

In a sign of stubborn demand, silver prices stayed firmly above $60 per ounce as investors weigh the path of U.S.monetary policy. A softer labour market and the prospect of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are shaping near‑term moves, even as a new batch of inflation data looms.

Analysts say the market is pricing in possible easing, with yields on U.S. goverment debt and the relative strength of the dollar contributing to the narrative that silver could grind higher over the coming weeks. Today’s release of consumer inflation data is watched closely to confirm whether price growth continues its recent rebound.

live Market Focus: Key Questions for Traders

Will the Fed press ahead with rate reductions next year? The debate centers on the economy’s resilience and the Fed’s dual mandate to safeguard price stability while supporting employment. Recent revisions to data have underlined a softer labor market, keeping the door open for additional policy action.

The current forecast calls for two 25‑basis‑point cuts in the Fed’s rate path next year, reflecting ongoing weakness in certain parts of the economy. Markets assign a probability of less than 73% to holding rates unchanged at the first meeting of next year, signaling a cautious stance among traders.

Meanwhile,all eyes are on today’s consumer price index report. A consensus reading of about 3.1% year over year would suggest inflation remains in a higher-but-manageable range, keeping the pressure on policymakers to calibrate future actions.

bond Yields in Focus: Where Support and Resistance Meet

In the two‑year segment,yields have moved within a broad range as September. The floor around 3.45% has been under persistent pressure, a sign that traders are watching for a decisive move. A breakout to the upside or downside could redefine near‑term borrowing costs and influence the broader risk tone.

if a breakout occurs, technical targets could move toward the lower end of the current channel. A failure to break higher could push yields back toward resistance around 4.10%, creating a fresh pathway for rates and asset prices to reroute.

Is the silver Pullback a Buying Window?

Despite some consolidations, broad demand remains a key driver, limiting the depth of pullbacks. If momentum persists, traders may eye a rise toward the $70 level, viewing the $65 zone as a nearby support that could offer favorable entry points for long positions.A slide from current levels could reopen the case for a test of around $60 per ounce, depending on the evolving inflation and growth signals.

Key Readings at a Glance

Indicator	Current Theme	Next Targets
Silver price	Trading above $60/oz; demand remains robust	Possible move toward $70; support near $65; test of $60 if pullback continues
Fed policy outlook	Two 25‑bp cuts anticipated for next year; rate path data mixed	Markets pricing in potential changes; probability of no change at first meeting < 73%
U.S. CPI	Due daily data; consensus around 3.1% YoY	Actual reading will define momentum for inflation and policymaking
Two‑year yields	Consolidation phase; solid support near 3.45%	Breakout could push below current ranges or push toward ~4.10% resistance

Why This Matters Over Time

Beyond the immediate price moves, silver’s trajectory is intertwined with inflation dynamics, Treasury yields, and the Fed’s policy stance. A persistent demand backdrop paired with a cautious rate‑cut path could keep silver in a higher-for-longer environment, while any shift in inflation momentum or growth signals could recalibrate risk appetites and precious‑metal bets.

evergreen insights

Longer‑term, investors watch the balance between monetary policy easing and economic resilience. Silver frequently enough benefits when inflation proves sticky and real yields stay low, making it a potential hedge during policy uncertainty. Diversification across assets-precious metals, government bonds, and equities-can help navigate a landscape where rate paths, inflation data, and geopolitical factors continually reshape expectations.

Engagement

What’s your take: Do you expect silver to ride the current momentum toward new highs, or will it retreat as inflation signals evolve?

How might shifts in Fed policy alter your strategy for precious metals and related assets in the quarters ahead?

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market movements involve risk, and readers should perform their own due diligence before making investment decisions. For official data releases and policy statements, consult primary sources such as the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For more context and official data, readers can visit the Federal Reserve’s policy page at federalreserve.gov and the CPI series at bls.gov/cpi.

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Silver Near $70 as fed Rate Cuts Loom and US Bond Yields Test Key Support

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Market Snapshot – December 2025

Asset	Current Level	30‑day Change	Key Outlook
Silver (XAG/USD)	$69.82	+3.5%	Approaching $70 resistance
Fed Funds Rate	4.75% (target range)	–	Expected cuts starting Q1 2026
10‑yr Treasury Yield	3.78%	-0.12%	Holding near 3.75% support
2‑yr Treasury Yield	4.95%	-0.08%	possible dip below 5%
Real Yield (10‑yr)	-0.12%	–	Still negative, favoring precious metals

Sources: Bloomberg Dec 2025, CME Group, US Treasury Daily Yield Curve.

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Technical Analysis – Why Silver Is Poised Near $70

1. Support Levels

• $66.00 – 200‑day moving average (MA) and 2024 low.
• $64.50 – Trend‑line bounce from Jan 2024 swing high.

2. Resistance zones

• $70.00 – Psychological round number; coincides with the 50‑day MA.
• $71.20 – Prior high from Oct 2024,acting as a short‑term ceiling.

3. Momentum Indicators

• RSI (14): 62 – suggests bullish momentum but not yet overbought.
• MACD: Positive crossover on the daily chart, confirming upward trend.

4. Volume Patterns

• Recent uptick in COMEX open‑interest (≈ 70 M troy oz) signals growing trader commitment.

Takeaway: With the 200‑day MA still intact and real yields remaining negative, silver’s next logical target is the $70‑$71.20 band, provided bond yields stay under key support.

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Fed Rate‑Cut Outlook – How It Fuels Silver

• Monetary Policy Shift: The Federal Reserve’s June 2025 minutes highlighted “inflationary pressures easing” and a “lean‑toward gradual rate reduction.” Markets price in two 25‑bp cuts for Q1 2026.
• Real Interest Rate Impact: Lower nominal rates compress the cost of holding non‑yielding assets. A 25‑bp cut projects the 10‑yr real yield to drift from -0.12% to roughly -0.20%, enhancing silver’s appeal as a real‑return hedge.
• Currency Effect: A weaker dollar (USD index down 1.3% YTD) amplifies silver’s dollar‑denominated price, adding momentum to the $70 push.

Practical Tip: Position traders can use Fed‐related calendar spreads (e.g., buying silver futures while shorting short‑dated Treasury futures) to capture the rate‑cut‑driven rally.

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US Bond Yields – The Crucial Support Test

• 10‑yr Yield Support at 3.75%
• Historically, a 10‑yr yield below 3.80% has coincided with silver breaking above $70 (see 2021‑2022 rally).
• Current price action shows the yield hovering at 3.78%,a hair’s breadth from the support zone.

• 2‑yr Yield Decoupling
• A flattening curve (2‑yr/10‑yr spread ≈ 1.2%) signals market expectation of slower rate cuts, which may keep short‑term yields higher, supporting safe‑haven demand.

• Correlation Metric
• Recent Pearson correlation (silver vs. 10‑yr yield, Dec 2025) = -0.68, indicating a strong inverse relationship.

Actionable Insight: Monitor the 10‑yr Treasury for a break below 3.75% – a move would likely trigger a short‑term silver surge past $70. conversely, a bounce above 3.80% could stall the rally.

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Fundamental Drivers Behind Silver’s Rise

• Industrial Demand:
• Renewable Energy: Solar PV production consumes ~7% of global silver; 2025 Q3‑Q4 capacity additions (≈ 150 GW) add 2.1 M oz of demand.
• Electrification: EV battery manufacturers are piloting silver‑nanowire electrodes, projecting an extra 0.5 M oz by 2026.

• Silver Economy Momentum:
• The Silver Economy Forum in Rome (April 2024) highlighted the booming over‑60 demographic’s appetite for health‑tech and wearable devices-many of which rely on silver‑based conductive inks. This sector may add ~0.3 M oz of consumption annually.

• Investment Flow:
• ETF Inflows: iShares Silver Trust (SLV) recorded a net inflow of $1.2 bn in Q3 2025, the largest quarterly addition since 2021.
• Physical Purchases: Central banks in India and China increased silver reserves by 4% YoY, underscoring sovereign demand.

Bottom Line: A confluence of industrial, demographic, and investment sources is tightening the physical‑silver supply chain, reinforcing price strength near $70.

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Tactical Strategies for Traders

1. Breakout Play – Entry: Buy silver futures at $69.80; Stop: $68.90; Target: $71.50.
2. Yield‑Correlation Hedge – Setup: Long 10‑yr Treasury futures, short silver ETF (SLV) when the 10‑yr spikes above 3.85%; reverse when yields retreat.
3. Option Overlay – Strategy: Sell near‑the‑money covered calls (strike $71) to collect premium while capping upside; suitable for investors pleasant with a capped rally.

Risk Management Checklist

• Verify real yield stays negative before expanding positions.
• Keep position size ≤ 2% of total portfolio for commodities exposure.
• Use volatility stop loss based on 20‑day ATR (≈ $0.45) to adjust trailing stops dynamically.

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Key Calendar events Influencing Silver

Date (2025)	Event	Expected Impact
Jan 15	Fed Chair’s Speech (Washington)	Possible early hint of rate‑cut timeline
Feb 28	US CPI Release (YoY)	Higher inflation may sustain negative real yields
Mar 10	OPEC Production Meeting	Energy price shocks can affect industrial silver demand
Apr 19	Silver economy Forum – Rome (2024 recap)	Highlights long‑term demand trends for silver‑based tech
Jun 30	US Treasury Auction (10‑yr)	Yield direction probe; watch for bid‑to‑cover ratio

Action Point: Align trade entries with these events; as an example, set a post‑CPI entry if inflation comes in hotter than expected, reinforcing the safe‑haven narrative.

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Quick Reference – Silver Market at a Glance

• Current Price: $69.82/oz (COMEX)
• Target Range (short‑term): $70.00‑$71.20
• Support Zones: $66.00 (200‑day MA), $64.50 (trend line)
• Fed Outlook: Two 25‑bp cuts anticipated Q1 2026
• Yield Trigger: 10‑yr < 3.75% → bullish for silver
• Key Drivers: Renewable energy, EV tech, Silver Economy demographic, ETF inflows

Stay alert to yield movements and Fed communications-these are the primary catalysts steering silver toward the $70 milestone.