Spain’s Looming Right Turn: What a PP-Vox Government Means for Foreigners
Spain is bracing for a political shift. With polls consistently predicting a loss for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialists, a new era under the center-right People’s Party (PP) appears increasingly likely. But the real question isn’t just if the right will return to power, but how – and what that means for the millions of foreigners living in Spain. A likely coalition with the far-right Vox party introduces a level of uncertainty, potentially reshaping immigration policies and foreigners’ rights in profound ways.
The Shifting Sands of Spanish Immigration Policy
For years, Spanish politics has been defined by a clear divide on immigration. The left, under Sánchez, has framed immigration as an economic necessity and a moral imperative, particularly as Spain faces demographic challenges. Conversely, the right has increasingly focused on the perceived sociocultural consequences of immigration, emphasizing issues of integration, security, and national identity. This divergence has become increasingly polarized, as evidenced by recent tensions in towns like Murcia.
The upcoming election isn’t simply a change in leadership; it’s a potential realignment of power that could dramatically alter the landscape for both legal and illegal immigrants. The PP, currently led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has been strategically moving to the right to counter the growing influence of Vox, which has called for the deportation of up to 8 million migrants – a figure that includes those born in Spain. This pressure is already impacting the PP’s rhetoric and policy proposals.
The PP and Vox: A Coalition of Convenience – and Consequences?
A coalition between the PP and Vox seems almost inevitable, given current polling data. This alliance will undoubtedly push the PP towards more hardline stances on immigration. While Feijóo is unlikely to fully embrace Vox’s most extreme proposals regarding second and third-generation migrants, the need to appease his coalition partners will likely result in stricter enforcement of immigration laws and a more restrictive approach to citizenship.
Spain’s Immigration Minister, Elma Saiz, has already criticized the PP and Vox for their alignment on migration policy, highlighting their opposition to regularizing long-term migrants. This opposition signals a potential rollback of existing protections and a more hostile environment for undocumented immigrants.
Two Tiers of Welcome: Who Benefits Under a PP Government?
The picture isn’t entirely bleak for all foreigners. The PP has historically been far more welcoming to wealthy investors and high-net-worth individuals. The party fiercely opposed the Sánchez government’s decision to scrap the Golden Visa scheme, which granted residency in exchange for significant investment, having originally created it themselves. Similarly, the PP has shown little concern over wealthy Latin American buyers driving up property prices in affluent areas like Madrid’s Salamanca district.
This suggests a clear distinction in how the PP views different types of foreigners. While those with capital to invest are likely to be welcomed with open arms, those seeking asylum, refugees, or simply a better life may face increased obstacles and scrutiny. The Basque PP’s proposal to link residency to access to welfare benefits exemplifies this trend, aiming to complicate the process for migrants in irregular situations.
Cultural Concerns and the Rise of Anti-Immigrant Sentiment
Beyond economic considerations, the PP is also responding to growing concerns about cultural integration. Recent policy documents have signaled a willingness to adopt positions previously championed by Vox, such as questioning the use of religious garments like the burqa or niqab. This reflects a broader trend of escalating anti-immigrant rhetoric, particularly targeting migrants from North Africa.
The Economic Tightrope: Balancing Ideology with Reality
Despite the increasingly hardline rhetoric, the PP faces a significant contradiction. As a traditionally pro-business party, it recognizes the economic contributions of immigrants. Spain’s economic growth has been fueled, in part, by immigrant labor, and a crackdown on immigration could exacerbate existing labor shortages. Furthermore, Spain’s aging population necessitates continued immigration to sustain its pension system.
The PP’s business allies are unlikely to support a complete halt to immigration, legal or illegal, as it would disrupt key sectors of the economy. This creates a tension between the party’s ideological leanings and the practical realities of governing. The PP may find itself trapped between appeasing its right-wing base and maintaining economic stability.
Ultimately, a PP-Vox government in Spain will likely represent a significant shift in immigration policy. While wealthy foreigners can likely expect continued favorable treatment, others may face increased restrictions and a more challenging environment. The extent of this shift will depend on the balance of power within the coalition and the PP’s ability to navigate the complex economic and demographic realities facing the country. What are your predictions for the future of immigration in Spain? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
