Mortgage Rates Stabilize as Banks Prepare for 2026 Lending Surge
A surprising calm has settled over the mortgage market this December, but don’t mistake stability for stagnation. While rates remain largely unchanged – averaging between 3.15% and 3.35% depending on the loan term – banks are quietly laying the groundwork for a significant push in credit production in 2026. This proactive move signals potentially excellent loan conditions for buyers next year, offering a window of opportunity for those planning a real estate purchase.
December’s Rate Snapshot: A Holding Pattern
December’s mortgage rates have shown minimal fluctuation, with changes ranging from +0.01 to -0.03 percentage points. According to data from Pretto, here’s a breakdown of average rates by borrower profile:
| Profile | 15 ans | 20 ans | 25 ans |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-40k€ | 3,25% | 3,35% | 3,45% |
| 40-80k€ | 3,16% | 3,26% | 3,39% |
| >80k€ | 3,05% | 3,15% | 3,22% |
| Average (all profiles) | 3,15% | 3,25% | 3,35% |
These minimal shifts maintain the current borrowing capacity for prospective buyers, providing a degree of predictability in a traditionally volatile market. However, the real story lies in the banks’ forward-looking strategies.
Banks on the Offensive: 2026 Credit Targets
Several major banking institutions have already announced ambitious credit production targets for 2026. This isn’t simply about maintaining market share; it’s a deliberate strategy to stimulate competition and attract borrowers. As Pierre Chapon, CEO and co-founder of Pretto, explains, “The scales change very little, but the banks have clearly indicated that they are counting on credit to accelerate in 2026. Competition should therefore intensify, particularly on balanced profiles.”
This increased competition translates directly into benefits for borrowers. Expect to see more aggressive negotiations, potentially lower rates, and a surge in promotional offers. Banks are increasingly viewing credit as a “commercial tool” – even in a challenging economic climate – and are willing to reduce margins to secure new customers.
The Impact of Economic Uncertainty
While the banking sector’s optimism is encouraging, it’s crucial to acknowledge the broader economic context. Political instability and an absent national budget create uncertainty for potential homebuyers. The question of whether to buy now or wait remains a valid concern. However, despite these uncertainties, the real estate market has demonstrated surprising resilience.
The state borrowing rate (the 10-year OAT) currently sits at 3.440%. While banks traditionally aligned their rates with the OAT, a recent trend shows some lenders offering rates below this benchmark, indicating a willingness to absorb smaller margins to attract business. This is a positive sign for borrowers seeking favorable terms.
Improved Affordability: The Time to Purchase is Approaching
Despite hopes for rates to dip to 3% by the end of 2025, the current conditions still represent an improvement. The combination of slightly declining prices and stable interest rates has significantly reduced the timeframe for a property purchase to become profitable compared to renting. Data from Meilleurs Agents reveals this timeframe has shrunk from 11 years and 8 months in 2023 to just 6 years and 9 months currently. This shift underscores the growing affordability of homeownership.
While caution is still warranted, the data suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the housing market in 2026. The groundwork is being laid for a more competitive lending environment, potentially unlocking significant savings for future homebuyers.
What are your predictions for the mortgage market in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
