Oil prices surged to a six-month high Thursday as President Donald Trump announced he will decide within the next 10 days whether to authorize military strikes against Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East and raising concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supplies.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.24, or 1.9%, to close at $66.43 per barrel, while the global benchmark Brent crude gained $1.31, or 1.86%, settling at $71.66, according to market reports. The increases mark the largest single-day gains in weeks and reflect growing investor anxiety over a potential military confrontation.
Trump’s statement came during the inaugural meeting of his newly formed “Board of Peace,” where he indicated a willingness to pursue further military action if a deal cannot be reached with Iran. “So now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not,” Trump said. “Maybe we’re going to make a deal. You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”
The administration has been engaged in talks with Iranian officials in Geneva, led by U.S. Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, regarding Iran’s nuclear program. However, Vice President JD Vance stated Tuesday that Iran had not addressed concerns raised by Trump during those discussions. The White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged Wednesday that “many reasons and arguments that one could make for a strike against Iran,” while also noting that the two sides remain “very far apart on some issues.”
Adding to the heightened sense of alert, the U.S. Military is undertaking a significant buildup in the Middle East. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier is currently stationed in the region, and the USS Gerald Ford is en route, signaling a clear demonstration of force.
Analysts at Capital Economics suggest that if Iranian oil infrastructure were to be targeted, and Iran responded by attempting to block shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz – a critical waterway for global oil transport, handling approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil supply – oil prices could rise towards $100 per barrel. Goldman Sachs analysts have also warned investors to brace for further price increases, citing an escalating situation.
The potential for disruption extends beyond immediate oil prices. Economists warn that a conflict could constrict global oil flows, leading to higher U.S. Energy prices and broader inflationary pressures.
Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration with Iran’s nuclear program and its support for regional proxy groups, stating, “It’s proven to be over the years not easy to make a meaningful deal with Iran. We have to make a meaningful deal, otherwise bad things happen.”
As of Friday, February 20, 2026, the outcome of Trump’s deliberations remains uncertain, and both the U.S. And Iran have yet to publicly signal any willingness to compromise on their core demands.
