Sudan’s Shadow War: How Gold, Geopolitics, and a Naval Base are Reshaping the Future of Conflict
A chilling statistic emerged last year: an estimated 80% of gold mined by hand in Africa flows to the United Arab Emirates. This isn’t just a trade statistic; it’s a critical artery fueling the brutal conflict in Sudan, a nation teetering on the brink of complete collapse. For over a year, fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has raged, a power struggle rooted in a complex web of ambition, resources, and foreign intervention. But the conflict isn’t simply about control of Sudan; it’s a proxy battle for regional dominance, with implications stretching far beyond the Horn of Africa.
The Roots of the Conflict: From Overthrow to Open Warfare
The current crisis stems from a fractured alliance. Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti, were once allies, jointly orchestrating the 2019 overthrow of long-standing autocrat Omar al-Bashir. However, their partnership was always transactional, and deeply stained by violence – notably, their shared responsibility for the 2019 Khartoum massacre of pro-democracy protestors, where over 100 people were killed. A subsequent 2021 coup further cemented their power, but ultimately sowed the seeds of their eventual clash. The escalation in April 2023 wasn’t a sudden eruption, but the inevitable consequence of competing ambitions and control over Sudan’s vast resources.
Gold as the Currency of War
Sudan’s gold reserves, particularly those controlled by Hemeti’s family through the al-Junaid company and the Jebel Amir mine in Darfur, are central to understanding the conflict. Both Bashir and the subsequent civilian government attempted to nationalize these mines, but Hemeti successfully secured control, creating a lucrative and independent power base. This control is now being exploited to finance the RSF, with smuggled gold exchanged for weapons, primarily through the UAE. While the Emirates vehemently denies these allegations, a UN group of experts found evidence of UAE support for RSF gold smuggling in 2023.
“The conflict in Sudan is a prime example of how resource wealth can exacerbate existing tensions and attract external actors with their own agendas. Gold isn’t just a commodity here; it’s a weapon.” – Dr. Ahmed Soliman, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House (Africa Programme)
A Regional Game of Pawns: Foreign Interference and Shifting Alliances
The UAE isn’t the only external player involved. Egypt firmly backs al-Burhan, viewing him as a bulwark against regional instability and concerned about the potential impact of a chaotic Sudan on the Nile River, Egypt’s lifeline. Saudi Arabia offers diplomatic support to Burhan, prioritizing stability in the region. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly supplying drones to the Sudanese army, aligning with Burhan to counter the UAE’s support for the RSF – a reflection of the broader geopolitical rivalry between Tehran and Abu Dhabi. Turkey’s role is murky, with alleged drone supplies denied, despite historical ties to Sudan. Even Russia, despite the disruption caused by the Wagner Group’s demise, remains deeply interested, seeking a potential naval base on the Red Sea.
Russia’s Red Sea Ambitions and the Wagner Legacy
Prior to its dissolution, the Wagner Group operated a gold mine in Sudan, providing support to the army in exchange for access to the precious metal. Now, with Prigozhin gone, Russia’s strategy is less clear, but the desire for a naval base remains. The successor organization, Afrika Korps, is reportedly involved with both sides of the conflict, hedging its bets on which faction will ultimately grant access to the Red Sea. This pursuit of a strategic foothold underscores the broader geopolitical stakes of the Sudanese conflict.
The Future of Sudan: Fragmentation and Prolonged Instability?
The most likely scenario isn’t a swift resolution, but a protracted conflict leading to de facto partition. The RSF’s control over key gold-producing regions grants it economic independence, while the army maintains control of Khartoum and strategic infrastructure. This could lead to a prolonged stalemate, with continued foreign interference exacerbating the situation. The risk of regional spillover is also significant, particularly in neighboring Chad and Libya, which are already being used as transit routes for gold and weapons.
The Sudanese conflict is a microcosm of broader geopolitical trends: resource competition, proxy warfare, and the scramble for influence in a strategically vital region.
However, there are potential pathways to de-escalation. A unified international effort to impose sanctions on those fueling the conflict – particularly those involved in gold smuggling – could exert pressure on both sides. Furthermore, a renewed focus on inclusive dialogue, involving civilian actors and regional stakeholders, is crucial to forging a sustainable peace. But without a concerted effort to address the underlying economic and political grievances, Sudan risks descending into a prolonged period of fragmentation and instability.
The Emerging Role of Chad and Libya as Smuggling Hubs
The increasing flow of gold through Chad and Libya, with 29 tons exported from Sudan to the UAE in 2024 (compared to 17 tons the previous year), highlights the evolving dynamics of the conflict. These countries serve as “exit gates” for the RSF, facilitating the illicit trade. Simultaneously, allegations of weapons and fuel supplies from Libya and Chad to the RSF, allegedly facilitated by the UAE, further complicate the situation. This creates a dangerous feedback loop, where resources are exploited to fuel the conflict, and the conflict itself destabilizes the region.
Frequently Asked Questions
What role does the UAE play in the Sudan conflict?
The UAE is widely accused of supporting the RSF financially and militarily, primarily through the purchase of smuggled Sudanese gold. While the UAE denies these allegations, evidence suggests a significant level of involvement.
Is a peaceful resolution to the Sudan conflict likely?
A swift and peaceful resolution appears unlikely in the short term. The deep-seated grievances, competing interests of external actors, and the RSF’s economic independence through gold control all contribute to a protracted conflict.
What are the implications of a Russian naval base in Sudan?
A Russian naval base in Sudan would significantly expand Russia’s strategic reach in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa, potentially challenging the influence of the United States and other Western powers in the region.
How can the international community help resolve the crisis?
The international community can exert pressure through targeted sanctions on those fueling the conflict, promote inclusive dialogue involving all stakeholders, and provide humanitarian assistance to the Sudanese people.
What are your predictions for the future of Sudan? The interplay of gold, geopolitics, and the pursuit of a naval base suggests a complex and volatile future. Explore more insights on resource conflicts in our dedicated section. Stay informed – subscribe to the Archyde.com newsletter for the latest analysis.
