Can We Tame Supervolcanoes? New Insights Offer Hope for Campi Flegrei and Beyond
If you live near Naples, you’re intimately familiar with the earth’s restless energy. Streets crack, the harbor silts up, steam curls from the earth, and swarms of small quakes rattle windows. This isn’t a sign of instability, but of life – the breathing of Campi Flegrei, a vast “supervolcano” caldera that last erupted in 1538. For decades, scientists interpreted these signs as classic precursors to a major eruption. But recent research is rewriting the narrative, suggesting we might be able to manage, rather than merely brace for, the power beneath our feet.
The Shifting Understanding of Volcanic Unrest
Two pivotal studies, one published in March 2023 and another in May 2025, have fundamentally altered our understanding of Campi Flegrei’s behavior. Traditionally, a spike in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions was considered a red flag, indicating rising magma and an impending eruption. The 2023 study, however, revealed a surprising twist: a significant portion – between 20-40% – of the CO₂ wasn’t originating from magma at all. Instead, it was being released from the hydrothermal system, where hot fluids were decarbonating calcite in the surrounding rocks.
This discovery doesn’t diminish the danger, but it reframes how we interpret the signals. A CO₂ spike isn’t automatically a countdown; it could simply mean the hydrothermal system is becoming more active. This is akin to a cardiologist recognizing that chest pain can have multiple causes – it doesn’t immediately mean a heart attack is imminent.
Key Takeaway: The source of volcanic gases isn’t always magma. Understanding the contribution of hydrothermal systems is crucial for accurate risk assessment.
The “Moka Pot” Model and the Sealed Reservoir
Building on this new understanding, the 2025 study delved deeper into the mechanics driving the recent bursts of earthquakes and ground deformation. Researchers employed a clever analogy – a moka pot, the Italian stovetop espresso maker – to simulate the conditions beneath Campi Flegrei. They found that the primary driver of unrest isn’t a rising blob of magma, but a capped geothermal reservoir beneath the town of Pozzuoli.
The “lid” of this reservoir, composed of fibrous, “self-healing” rock, seals quickly, trapping water and steam. As the geothermal heat source continues to warm the system, pressure builds until the rocks fracture, releasing steam and causing earthquakes. Interestingly, the quakes start shallow and deepen over time – the opposite of what would be expected from magma pushing upwards.
Did you know? The self-healing nature of the caprock is a key factor in the cyclical pattern of unrest at Campi Flegrei. This explains why pressure builds and releases in distinct episodes.
Managing the Pressure: A New Approach to Volcanic Risk
This new model offers a glimmer of hope. If the primary driver is pressure within a closed, fluid-filled reservoir, then we can potentially manage the “fuel” – the water supply. While we can’t turn off the geothermal heat source, we can reduce the amount of water available to pressurize the system.
The researchers propose several practical steps: restoring and maintaining ancient drainage channels to prevent rainwater from seeping into the system, carefully monitoring and controlling groundwater levels, and, where feasible, relieving pressure by strategically withdrawing fluids through wells. This is akin to tending a radiator – preventing clogs, managing water levels, and bleeding off excess pressure.
Expert Insight: “For decades, volcano monitoring has been largely reactive – watching and warning. This new understanding allows us to shift towards a more proactive approach, focusing on prevention and mitigation.” – Dr. Isabella Russo, Volcanologist, University of Naples Federico II.
Beyond Campi Flegrei: Implications for Global Volcanic Risk
The lessons learned from Campi Flegrei have far-reaching implications for volcanic risk management worldwide. Many volcanoes are influenced by hydrothermal systems, and the principles of pressure management could be applied to other restless calderas. This isn’t a universal solution, but it represents a paradigm shift in how we approach volcanic hazards.
However, it’s crucial to remember that Campi Flegrei remains a significant threat. Magma is still present at depth, and the hydrothermal system can trigger destructive steam-driven explosions (phreatic blasts) even without lava. The new approach aims to reduce the frequency and intensity of these fluid-pressure crises, not eliminate the risk of a magmatic eruption entirely.
The Role of Civil Engineering and Interdisciplinary Collaboration
Successfully implementing these preventative measures requires a collaborative effort between geoscientists and civil engineers. Unclogging centuries-old drainage canals, diverting stormwater, and implementing groundwater monitoring programs are all engineering challenges that require specialized expertise. This interdisciplinary approach is essential for translating scientific understanding into practical solutions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Campi Flegrei about to erupt?
A: While Campi Flegrei is still an active volcano and poses a risk, the recent research suggests that the immediate threat of a major eruption may be lower than previously thought. The focus has shifted to managing pressure within the geothermal reservoir.
Q: What can residents of the area do to prepare?
A: Residents should stay informed about official warnings and evacuation plans. Supporting local initiatives to maintain drainage systems and monitor groundwater levels can also contribute to risk reduction.
Q: Could this approach be applied to other volcanoes?
A: Yes, the principles of pressure management could be applicable to other volcanoes influenced by hydrothermal systems. However, each volcano is unique and requires a tailored approach.
Q: What is bradyseism?
A: Bradyseism refers to the slow rising and falling of the ground, a common phenomenon in the Campi Flegrei area caused by the movement of fluids beneath the surface.
The future of volcanic risk management may lie not in simply predicting eruptions, but in actively regulating the forces that drive them. Campi Flegrei offers a rare opportunity to test this new approach, potentially paving the way for a safer coexistence with these powerful natural forces. What are your thoughts on this evolving understanding of supervolcanoes? Share your perspective in the comments below!
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