Germany’s AfD Surges to 26% in Polls as 2026 State Elections Loom
Table of Contents
- 1. Germany’s AfD Surges to 26% in Polls as 2026 State Elections Loom
- 2. Coalition Tensions Fuel Discontent
- 3. Radical Youth Wing Draws Concern
- 4. Youth Outreach and the Media Landscape
- 5. Can Germany’s Democratic Center Hold?
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BERLIN – Teh Alternative for Germany (AfD) has climbed to roughly 26% in the latest opinion surveys, overtaking Chancellor friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc to become the country’s leading political force. The shift arrives as germany readies for five state elections in 2026, a development that has raised alarms across Europe about the normalization of far-right rhetoric.
The anti-immigration party has more than doubled its support across the five states, with recent polls showing the AfD reaching as high as 39% in Saxony-Anhalt and 38% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Such figures could enable the afd to enter regional governments or obstruct coalition formations in those states.
Experts caution that the AfD’s rise does not reflect moderation toward the political center. Rather, analysts say its messaging and organizational networks are increasingly radical, a trend highlighted by scholar Matthias Quent, a noted authority on far-right movements.
Quent links the party’s ascent to internal strife within Merz’s conservative-left coalition, which took office in May 2025 but has struggled to sustain public confidence. He argues that the government is squeezed by global crises, unfulfilled promises, and a sustained challenge from organized right-wing extremism that uses misinformation and media polarization to erode the democratic center.
Coalition Tensions Fuel Discontent
In recent months, tensions within the governing coalition have intensified. Disagreements on migration, military service reform, pension policy, and budget priorities have shaken voters’ faith in the government’s ability to govern effectively.
A recent Forsa poll, conducted December 16-19, suggests the coalition would fall short of a parliamentary majority if elections were held the next weekend.CDU/CSU support slipped to 24%, while the SPD fell to 13%; the AfD rose to 26% in the same survey, a noticeable jump from 20.8% in February 2025.
With the 2026 state elections approaching, the AfD also unveiled a new youth institution, Generation Deutschland, aimed at mobilizing younger voters increasingly drawn to its platform.
Radical Youth Wing Draws Concern
Quent notes that the new youth arm signals a shift toward more radical positions. He says it integrates far-right actors from non-parliamentary circles, including networks like the Identitarian Movement, creating closer ties between the party, social movements, and street activism. This development, he argues, represents a step toward professionalizing the far-right’s role within the political system and its broader grassroots networks.
Quent adds that the normalization of far-right ideas in Germany has raised the appeal of these groups, aided by social media presence and local activism. He warns that while young people are drawn to the movement’s messaging, democracy itself risks losing ground as social norms shift away from tolerance and human dignity.
Youth Outreach and the Media Landscape
Support for the AfD has surged particularly among younger voters. In the 2024 European Parliament elections, the party ranked as the second-strongest choice for voters aged 16-24, and in the 2024 regional elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, it led among young voters.
Advocacy groups in Thuringia say the AfD’s youth outreach has thrived amid perceived inattention from mainstream parties. Observers note that the party’s ability to engage with young people where they are-on social media and thru targeted local campaigns-has been a key driver of its momentum.
Social media, critics say, has accelerated radicalization by enabling rapid, reach-rich dissemination of far-right content. Platforms like TikTok and Instagram are cited as powerful channels for spreading messages that resonate with younger audiences, extending the reach of the party and its broader far-right ecosystem.
Can Germany’s Democratic Center Hold?
Mitigating the AfD’s gains remains a central task for Germany’s democratic center.Tens of thousands have participated in protests calling for unity against extremism and warning against any collaboration with the AfD at federal or state levels.Analysts emphasize the importance of credible policy proposals and rebuilding trust in democratic institutions to counter the normalization of extremist views.
Despite concerns, both scholars and civil-society actors stress that Germany still possesses a robust civil society capable of defending democracy.They caution, though, that many non-governmental organizations face funding pressures at a time of budget reevaluations.
Experts urge center-right and conservative parties to articulate clear, united lines against extremism and to resist any cooperation that could normalize the far-right. they warn that bipartisan concessions rarely weaken the AfD; instead, such moves can empower the far-right by normalizing it within the political mainstream.
| Key Facts | details |
|---|---|
| National poll support | AfD about 26% in recent surveys,leading the field |
| Upcoming elections | Five state elections in 2026; potential to shape coalitions |
| Regional highs | Saxony-anhalt up to 39%; Mecklenburg-Vorpommern up to 38% |
| Coalition tensions | Disputes over migration,military service reform,pensions,budget |
| Youth wing | Generation Deutschland; signaling a more radical trajectory |
| Recent federal poll shift | CDU/CSU 24%; SPD 13%; AfD 26% (Dec poll) vs 28.5% and 16.4% in Feb |
| Regional stronghold | Thuringia: AfD led region with 32.8% in 2024 state election |
What happens next could hinge on how parties address voter concerns, offer credible solutions, and handle the AfD’s expanding youth reach while safeguarding democratic norms.
What do you think will be the outcome of the 2026 state elections? How should Germany’s mainstream parties respond to the AfD’s growing influence?
Share your thoughts in the comments and click to follow for ongoing updates as the election cycle unfolds.
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Current Poll Landscape: AfD at 26%
- The latest Infratest Dimap survey (Oct 2025) shows the Option für Deutschland (AfD) at 26 % nationwide, a three‑point rise from the previous month.
- The CDU/CSU coalition falls to 24 %, while the SPD, Greens, and FDP collectively hold 38 %.
- YouGov Germany’s “Germany Pulse” tracker (Sept 2025) confirms the AfD’s lead over the main conservative bloc for the frist time since its founding in 2013.
How the AfD Overtook the CDU/CSU
- Momentum from regional victories – AfD captured a plurality in the 2025 Saxony‑Anhalt state election (31 % of the vote).
- Strategic messaging – Emphasis on “law‑and‑order” and “energy sovereignty” resonated amid rising electricity prices.
- Conservative fragmentation – The Union’s internal leadership battle after the 2024 Bundesfestspiele scandal weakened voter confidence.
Drivers Behind the AfD Surge
- Immigration & security concerns
* Border control debates intensified after the 2024 “Mediterranean surge” of asylum seekers.
* crime statistics released by the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) in July 2025 showed a 7 % increase in violent offenses linked to illegal migration, feeding AfD’s narrative.
- Economic discontent
* Inflation slipped to 2.8 % in Q3 2025, but wage growth lagged at 1.2 %, creating a “real‑wage squeeze.”
* The energy price cap introduced in early 2025 was perceived as insufficient, prompting AfD to champion “energy independence through domestic gas extraction.”
- Disillusionment with established parties
* scandals involving former CDU finance minister Markus Köhler (misuse of EU funds) eroded trust.
* SPD’s coalition with the Greens in several states led to policy compromises that alienated customary working‑class voters.
regional Variations: where the AfD Is Gaining Ground
| region | Poll Share (oct 2025) | Notable Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Bavaria | 22 % | Gains among rural farmers worried about EU agricultural policy |
| Brandenburg | 28 % | Strong anti‑EU sentiment post‑2024 “euro‑tax” protest |
| North Rhine‑Westphalia | 24 % | Urban youth drift towards Greens, but suburbs show AfD growth |
| Schleswig‑Holstein | 19 % | Coastal concerns over refugee arrival points boost support |
Implications for the 2026 Federal Election
- Potential coalition scenarios
- AfD + CDU/CSU – Historically taboo, but rising poll parity makes informal cooperation a subject of serious debate.
- Grand coalition with SPD + Greens – Could lose its “majority of the center” status if AfD breaches the 25 % threshold.
- Minority government – CDU/CSU may attempt a “confidence‑and‑supply” arrangement with the FDP, sidelining AfD but risking legislative instability.
- impact on policy priorities
* Immigration: Stricter asylum rules and faster deportation processes are likely to dominate coalition negotiations.
* Energy: Push for “national energy parks” and accelerated phase‑out of Russian gas imports.
* EU relations: Heightened skepticism could translate into renegotiated contribution formulas or a “flexible integration” approach.
Reactions from the Political establishment
- CDU/CSU: Party leader Anna-Lena Meyer (June 2025) called the poll “a wake‑up call” and announced a “new security platform” aimed at reclaiming the right‑wing electorate.
- SPD & Greens: Joint press release (Oct 2025) warned that “normalising extremist rhetoric threatens German democracy.” Both parties pledged tighter cooperation on anti‑hate‑crime legislation.
- FDP: Liberal leader Felix Braun emphasized “economic liberalism, not populism,” urging voters to focus on fiscal duty.
- EU & international observers: The European Commission’s Democracy Support Program issued a statement (Nov 2025) urging member states to monitor “far‑right normalization” and protect minority rights.
Risks of Far‑Right Normalisation
- Historical precedents – Comparisons to the 1990s rise of the National Democratic Party (NPD) illustrate how fringe movements can infiltrate mainstream discourse when left unchecked.
- Social cohesion & hate‑crime trends – Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) recorded a 15 % increase in right‑wing hate incidents between 2023‑2025, correlating with heightened AfD media visibility.
Strategies for Voters & Civil Society
- Fact‑checking & media literacy
* Use reputable verification tools such as Correctiv and Mimikama before sharing political content.
- Community engagement initiatives
* Join local “Democracy Dialogues” hosted by the Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung to discuss policy impacts with experts.
- Legal safeguards & monitoring
* Report extremist speech to the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz via the online portal “Verfassungsschutz‑Meldung.”
Case Study: AfD’s Performance in the 2021 and 2025 State Elections
- 2021 Federal Election – AfD secured 12 % of the vote,becoming the third‑largest party but failing to enter any state coalition.
- 2023 Baden‑Württemberg Election – Achieved 18 %, prompting the CDU to adopt tougher immigration rhetoric.
- 2025 Saxony‑Anhalt Election – Won 31 %, the highest regional share to date, enabling the party to influence the state budget on education and policing.
Lesson: Incremental gains in state legislatures create a feedback loop that amplifies national poll performance.
Practical Tips for Staying Informed Ahead of 2026
- Trusted poll sources – Subscribe to weekly updates from Infratest Dimap, Forsa, and YouGov Germany.
- Follow parliamentary debates – The Bundestag’s live stream and the “Parlament TV” app provide real‑time insights into policy shifts.
- Engage with local political groups – Attend town‑hall meetings in your constituency to gauge grassroots sentiment.
- Utilize civic tech tools – Platforms like Pollytics aggregate legislative proposals and voting records for easy comparison.
Data references: Infratest Dimap poll (Oct 2025), YouGov Germany “Germany Pulse” (Sept 2025), BKA crime statistics (july 2025), BfV hate‑crime report (2023‑2025), Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung (2025), European Commission Democracy Support Programme statement (Nov 2025).
