analysis

BEIJING (Reuters) – One of the first things China’s President Xi Jinping did in 2012 after taking the top position as general secretary of the Communist Party of China was to hold a regular meeting with 25 members of the Central Politburo for the People’s Lives of the Democratic People’s Republic of China. It was to revive the event. This is the practice of the Mao Zedong era.

The revival of the group, which has led to the practice of “self-criticism” before the general secretary, marks Mr. Xi’s departure from decades of collective leadership and toward a concentration of power not seen since the Mao era. It’s a small but symbolic event.

At the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which will be held from 16th, Mr. Xi, 69, is expected to break the precedent and decide to stay in office for five years or more. This would solidify the communist party’s total dominance, with Mr. Xi as the official “nucleus.”

A look at the next members of the Standing Committee of the Communist Party’s Politburo will provide a clue as to how much Xi will suppress dissidents within the party. Few experts, however, expect any significant change in current trajectories and methods. Rather, it is expected to maintain or strengthen the concentration of power.

Despite China’s recent backfires, including its stringent “zero-corona” policy to curb the spread of the new coronavirus, its aggressive diplomatic stance, and the transformation of its once-thriving “platform” economy, Stick to these policies. Some have criticized this as a manifestation of the risks of strengthening the authoritarian regime.

Wu Guoguang, a senior fellow at Stanford University who has worked within the Chinese Communist Party, says that leaders who suppress opposition and gain power ironically inevitably feel insecure and reluctant to share power or change direction. Point out that it is a thing. “Xi will fear that self-correction could be used by his opponents as a means to defeat him,” he said.

Some experts say the government may make some adjustments to its policies after the party congress, or, in the Communist Party’s parlance, “adjust with the times.” But the general direction is expected to remain the same for the next few years.

“Xi is having a really hard time correcting himself,” said Ashley Essaray, a political scientist at the University of Alberta.

The lack of a clear successor in sight also allows Mr. Xi to run alone, but the longer he stays in power, the greater the risk.

China’s economy has stalled over the past year, Russia’s support for Putin, and the zero-coronavirus policy, which is increasingly viewed as ‘misplaced’, but Xi’s power base appears to be solid. . Over the past decade, China has prioritized security, expanding the state’s role in the economy, strengthening its military arsenal, pushing its foreign policy, and increasing pressure to take control of Taiwan.

When the elders chose Mr. Xi as their leader, he was considered a safe choice. Putting the party first, he was expected to overhaul an organization that had become rigid due to corruption and had lost its raison d’etre in the midst of economic liberalization.

Xi’s appointment to the Politburo Standing Committee in 2007 raised hopes for reform among liberals and the West. Xi’s father, when he was secretary of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee, supported then-leader Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up.

But Mr. Xi made it a priority to protect the party, making it the center of life in China and himself the center of the party.

As of April 2022, 4.7 million bureaucrats had been investigated and many purged under Mr. Xi in the name of combating corruption and restoring public confidence in the party. This had the effect of eliminating political opponents, appointing his own subordinates to replace them, and at the same time winning the support of the people.

Mr. Xi has also silenced dissent and banned “disrespectful” discussions of the party by party members. All comments critical of Xi have been removed from the internet.

In 2016, Xi made himself the “nucleus” of the party, and in 2018 he abolished the two-term presidential limit, paving the way for lifelong rule.

Establishment scholars argue that a country as large and diverse as China needs a strong central authority and a strong leader. The success in alleviating poverty, the efficiency in building infrastructure and hosting events like the Beijing Winter Olympics, and the eradication of the new coronavirus epidemic, he says, are proof of that.

But Dali Yang, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Chicago, said Mr. Xi may feel the need to make more compromises in a third term, especially given the growing backlash against his zero-corona policy.

“Prior to the most recent COVID-19 outbreak, people generally supported Xi’s policies, even if they were painful. We may have to accept that,” Yang said.

(Reporter by Yew Lun Tian)