Power Shifts in Rakhine: The Rise of the Arakan Army

The Arakan army (AA), a powerful rebel group in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, has dramatically expanded its influence over the past 15 years, controlling a significant portion of the region’s territory and key administrative centers. This ascendance, coupled with its dedication to establishing a separate autonomous region, has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of Rakhine and challenges the authority of the Myanmar military junta.

The AA’s territorial gains have been remarkable. The group now controls 15 out of the 17 key townships in Rakhine, encompassing over 90% of the region, including its entire 271-kilometer border with Bangladesh. This territorial dominance was cemented by a major victory – the capture of Ann township’s Western Regional Command headquarters, a symbolic blow to the military’s control.

Beyond military prowess, the AA has established the Arakan People’s revolutionary Government (APRG) to govern key aspects of Rakhine state, including the judiciary, public health, and administration. This move underscores the AA’s ambition for greater autonomy, even aiming for confederate status within Myanmar.

Rakhine’s strategic location, rich natural resources, and proximity to China’s Belt and Road initiative projects make it a region of significant geopolitical importance. This has drawn both China’s investment and the vigilance of regional powers like India and Bangladesh.

While the AA has expressed inclusivity in its vision for Rakhine, building trust with marginalized communities, particularly the Rohingya, remains a significant challenge.The group’s history and allegations of human rights violations have created deep distrust within the Rohingya population.

The AA’s relationship with Rohingya groups is complex and fraught with historical grievances.Ethno-nationalism has often marginalized the Rohingya,and the AA has been accused of human rights abuses against them. However, recent statements from the AA advocating for an inclusive Rakhine and openness to political dialog suggest a potential shift in its approach. To achieve lasting peace, concrete actions are needed: addressing human rights concerns, ensuring equitable representation for the Rohingya in governance structures, and fostering mutual respect.

The challenge of addressing conflict in Rakhine extends beyond its borders. Bangladesh, hosting over a million Rohingya refugees, faces immense pressure from the ongoing crisis. India, with strategic interests in the region, must navigate the complexities of the AA’s rise while pursuing its own strategic objectives.

Finding a path to peace and stability in Rakhine demands a collaborative approach. Inclusive governance, promoting dialogues, leveraging strategic investments, and enhancing humanitarian assistance are crucial steps. Only through these multifaceted efforts can rakhine transition from conflict to a future of peace and prosperity.