［東京 ２日 ロイター］ - ＜１０：１５＞ 日経平均は下げ幅拡大、輸出関連株の売り加速 日経平均は下げ幅を拡大し、前営業日比約４３０円安の２万７７００円台後半で推移 している。寄り付きから変わらず全業種で値下がりし、全面安の展開となっている。下げ 幅は一時４５０円を超えた。 輸出関連株の下げが目立っており、トヨタ自動車、日立製作所、ホ ンダが軟調。市場では、ドル／円相場での円高進行と前日の米株安が重しになっ ているとの声が聞かれた。「多くの企業がドル／円の想定レートを１３５円前後としてお り、さらなる円高進行は企業業績にとってマイナスになる可能性がある」（国内証券・ス トラテジスト）という。 足元のドルは１３５円台前半で、昨日の取引時間中より円高に振れている。 ＜０９：０５＞ 寄り付きの日経平均は反落、利益確定売り優勢 寄り付きの東京株式市場で日経平均は、前営業日比２４２円９０銭安の２万７９８３ 円１８銭と、反落してスタートした。寄り付き後も３５０円安と下げ幅を広げている。昨 日の株高の反動で利益確定売りが優勢となり、節目の２万８０００円を下回った。東証３ ３業種では、全業種値下がりしている。 昨日大きく上昇した銘柄の下げが目立ち、個別ではソフトバンクグループ、 東京エレクトロン、ファーストリテイリングが軟調。 主力のトヨタ自動車、ソニーグループもそれぞれ１％超安とさえな い。 ＜０８：２５＞ 寄り前の板状況、日産東京販売ＨＬＤＧが買い優勢 ニッコンＨＬ ＤＧは売り優勢 東証プライム市場の寄り前の板状況では、買い優勢と売り優勢のそれぞれ上位銘柄群 は以下の通り。 買い優勢 銘柄名 騰落 MID 買気 売気 終値 率 気配 配 配 1 日産東京販売ＨＬＤＧ 27% 378 378 378 298 2 進和 24% 2,54 2,54 2,54 2,04 5 5 5 5 3 サイバーエージェント 16% 1,43 1,43 1,43 1,23 6 5 6 9 4 ハブ 15% 769 769 769 669 5 ＲＳ Ｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｉｅ 11% 9,46 9,46 9,46 8,50 ｓ 0 0 0 0 6 ミズノ 11% 3,14 3,14 3,15 2,84 8 5 0 4 7 ニチアス 9% 2,65 2,65 2,65 2,43 7 7 7 6 8 ニフコ 9% 3,90 3,90 3,91 3,59 8 5 0 5 9 愛知製鋼 8% 2,45 2,44 2,45 2,26 0 9 0 9 10 理研計器 8% 5,34 5,34 5,35 4,95 5 0 0 5 売り優勢 銘柄名 騰落 MID 買気 売気 終値 率 気配 配 配 1 ニッコンＨＬＤＧ -21% 1,92 1,92 1,92 2,42 1 1 1 1 2 シップヘルスケアＨＬＤＧ <336 -18% 2,24 2,24 2,24 2,74 0.T> 3 3 3 3 3 テクノプロＨＬＤＧ -13% 3,33 3,33 3,33 3,85 5 5 5 5 4 スタンレー電気 -12% 2,49 2,49 2,49 2,82 5 4 5 8 5 トランザクション -9% 1,19 1,19 1,19 1,30 5 4 5 8 6 ネクソン -8% 2,71 2,71 2,71 2,95 1 0 1 3 7 小糸製作所 -8% 2,01 2,01 2,01 2,18 2 1 2 7 8 フリービット -7% 1,05 1,04 1,05 1,12 0 9 0 6 9 フジテック -7% 2,94 2,94 2,94 3,15 5 4 5 5 10 エヌ・ティ・ティ・データ <961 -7% 1,98 1,98 1,98 2,12 3.T> 1 0 1 1 (
Auto & Truck Manufacturers (TRBC level 4)
Column: If inflation continues for a long time, the FF rate will be in the 5% range, but the investment environment will change dramatically = Norihiro Fujito | Reuters
[Tokyo 12th]- The risk of a prolonged period of high global inflation seems to be increasing. “OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Plus” has decided to cut production by 2 million barrels per day from November, but the scale of the cut is the largest since the 2020 coronavirus shock.
Already in August, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdul Aziz said, “The extreme volatility and lack of liquidity in the crude oil futures market is causing crude oil prices to deviate further from fundamentals,” and said, “OPEC+ is taking action to cut production. It may be taken,” he warned. It has materialized.
What is important is that OPEC+ is willing to cut production even further to maintain crude oil prices in the event that demand for crude oil slows down due to a slowdown or recession in the global economy. In the background, it seems that the financial situation of oil-producing countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, is deeply involved.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Saudi Arabia’s financial balance is estimated at $79.2 per barrel, and other Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are in a similar situation. In other words, a drop below $80 per barrel would have a direct impact on the finances of the oil-producing countries in the Gulf, and it seems that they were aware of this as a line to be defended.
Saudi Arabia’s early-developed oil fields often have very low extraction costs. Despite this low mining cost and huge production volume of oil revenue, the fiscal equilibrium point is $79.2 per barrel. This is because we continue to invest in In addition to infrastructure investment such as the large-scale renovation of King Abdul Aziz Airport and the only high-speed railway in the Middle East connecting Mecca and Medina, the country is also pushing forward with the construction of a huge oil refining and petrochemical complex.
Among them, the “straight high-rise smart city NEOM” under construction in the northwestern desert is a magnificent future city with a width of 200 meters, a height of 500 meters (above sea level), and a total length of 170 kilometers, and is expected to house 9 million people. . It is a huge project that can be said to be a modern version of the Great Wall of China, but the total construction cost is about 500 billion dollars (about 73 trillion yen), and a huge amount of oil revenue is being generously invested.
Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the Yemeni civil war has also led to a sharp increase in defense spending. Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been engaged in a proxy war, but since April this year, a ceasefire has been realized through the mediation of the United Nations.
However, the United Nations announced on October 2 that it had not reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire, raising tensions again. In the past, the Houthi rebels used drones and missiles to attack oil-related facilities and pipelines in Saudi Arabia.
In other words, behind Saudi Arabia’s fiscal equilibrium point of $79.2 a barrel, there is such a huge amount of spending. As for future crude oil prices, we should assume that the lower limit will be $80 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures prices fell to a low of $76.2 per barrel on September 26 against the backdrop of global demand decline expectations. The North Sea Brent futures price, which is the benchmark for world crude oil prices, was also close to 80 dollars at 83.6 dollars on the same day. However, following the announcement of the production cut by OPEC Plus, on October 10, WTI prices rallied to $93.6/bbl and North Sea Brent prices rallied to $98.7/bbl.
Retail gasoline prices in the US are also showing signs of rebounding after bottoming out. The average price of regular gasoline (national basis) announced by the National Automobile Association hit a record high of $5.016 per gallon (3.785 liters) on June 13, but crude oil prices have fallen since then. It has drawn a downward trend in conjunction with the reversal trend. It fell to a low of $3.674 on Sept. 19, down 26.8% from its peak. After that, however, it began a slow rise, rebounding 6.8% to $3.923 on Oct. 10.
In addition to the rebound from the bottoming out of crude oil and gasoline prices, Russia’s suspension of natural gas supply to Europe has caused natural gas prices to rise not only in Europe but also worldwide. With the winter demand season approaching, there are fears that natural gas and heating oil will rise further, and energy prices are expected to continue to soar. It is highly likely that upward pressure on prices will be prolonged.
Another important factor is the continuing pattern of ‘wage inflation’, which is directly linked to broad-based service price hikes. The September US employment report showed that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest level in 50 years, and the average hourly wage increased by 5.0% from the previous year. The average weekly working hours also remained at a high level of 34.5 hours.
As a result, housing costs, which account for the largest weight in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, continue to soar, and transportation costs, medical costs, and prices related to personal services also continue to rise. In other words, it will take a long time to reach the 2% target set by the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) not only for the CPI, which reflects trends in energy prices, but also for the core CPI.
In response, the Fed has signaled a continuation of its strong tightening policy. The lectures by the newly appointed directors Jefferson and Cook drew attention, and the phrase common to both directors was “raising and continuing to the policy interest rate level that suppresses the economy.” It is likely that the wording was elaborated as a unified view within the Fed.
In addition, Chicago Fed President Evans said, “The policy rate will reach 4.5% to 4.75% by the spring of 2023,” and New York Fed President Williams said, “The policy rate will eventually rise to around 4.5%.” , referring to more specific figures.
Federal funds rate (short-term policy interest rate) futures are certain to raise rates by 0.75% in November and 0.5% in December, and the implied overnight rate will peak at 4.673 in March next year. % and the remarks of both parties are incorporated (as of October 11). However, as mentioned above, if high inflation persists for longer than expected, the Fed should be prepared for a risk scenario of 5% or even more than the policy rate.
There is still hope on Wall Street that the Fed will loosen its reins if the market shakes. However, Fed Governor Waller expressed his strong determination to “prioritize the fight against inflation even if there is turmoil in the financial markets,” and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard said, “The market correctly interpreted the Fed’s message of continuing rate hikes. I do,” he said calmly. Asset price fluctuations of this magnitude are expected.
Led by Chairman Powell, the FRB is expected to quietly implement a large interest rate hike and a monthly QT (balance sheet reduction) of $950 in order to curb high inflation, which is its most important proposition.
Even in my long experience with the market, this is the first time since the second oil crisis in 1979 that the Fed and other central banks have continued to implement strong tightening measures despite being aware of the risk of recession.
Volcker, then chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, launched a policy interest rate of 20%, a “strong move,” but it took about four years for the US economy, prices, and stock prices to return to normal after 1983. there is I don’t mean to say that this time will also take a similar amount of time, but at least while the Fed continues to raise interest rates, we should be aware that naive “wishful thinking” may directly lead to a deterioration in performance.
If the market was in a super-excessive liquidity market like last year to the beginning of this year, the bullish stance of following the trend could have produced results. However, now that central banks around the world are under strong tightening policies, it seems clear that investment money will shrink. Moreover, if there are concerns about the risk of a global economic slowdown or recession, it is highly unlikely that the market will function as a “momentum play.”
In other words, we believe that it will be difficult to achieve good performance in the stock market unless we aim to be contrarian and dip-buying based on the direction of the central bank’s monetary policy and basic macro and micro analysis. The investment environment has changed dramatically from last year, and it will be important to take a cautious stance in response to this change.
Editing: Kazuhiko Tamaki
*This column isReuters Forex ForumThis is the content posted on It is based on the author’s personal opinion.
*Mr. Norihiro Fujito is an Executive Counselor and Chief Investment Strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Graduated from Waseda University in 1979. Joined Kokusai Securities in 1999. After that, he worked in the investment information department at Mitsubishi Securities, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, and Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Incumbent since July 2018. Prior to joining KOKUSAI SECURITIES, he spent nearly 20 years in the asset management business at a life insurance company, where he worked as a fund manager, portfolio manager of pension funds, and in charge of planning. He has a reputation for persuasive analysis from a buy-side perspective.
*Content such as news, trading prices, data and other information in this document is provided by columnists for your personal use only and not for commercial purposes. There is none. The content of this document is not intended to solicit or induce investment activity, nor is it appropriate to use the content for the purpose of making a trading or buying or selling decision. This content does not provide any investment, tax, legal, etc. advice that constitutes investment advice, nor does it make any recommendations regarding specific financial stocks, financial investments, or financial products. Use of this document does not replace the investment advice of a qualified investment professional. Although Reuters makes reasonable efforts to ensure the reliability of the content, any views or opinions provided by a columnist are those of the columnist and not those of Reuters.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – China’s ambassador to the United States thanked Tesla CEO Elon Musk for suggesting a solution to the Taiwan problem, while Taiwan’s representatives criticized.
“Why not consider a special administrative region of Taiwan, which is reasonably acceptable, but probably not everyone’s favourite,” Musk said in an interview with the Financial Times.
A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman was questioned about Musk’s remarks at a press conference on the 8th, saying that Taiwan is an “internal affair” of China, and that China will continue to “resolutely crush” Taiwanese independence groups and achieve peaceful reunification. He said that he would adhere to the principle of
China’s ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, posted on Twitter on Monday that he appreciated Musk’s proposal and emphasized China’s call for “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan and “one country, two systems.” “I would like to thank (Mr. Musk) for calling for peace in the Taiwan Strait and for proposing the establishment of a special administrative region in Taiwan. Peaceful reunification and one country, two systems are our basic principles for resolving the Taiwan issue. It is the best approach to achieve national unity,” he said.
On the other hand, Taiwan’s ambassador to the United States, Xiao Meiqin, president of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States, posted on the 8th, “Taiwan sells many products, but our freedom and democracy are not for sale.” “A lasting proposal for our future must be peacefully determined, non-coercive and respectful of the democratic aspirations of the Taiwanese people,” she said.
Mr. Musk, a controversial Ukrainian peace plan, proposes a “special zone” over the Taiwan issue | Reuters
[ワシントン ７日 ロイター] – Elon Musk, the CEO of electric car maker Tesla Inc., said he thinks the conflict can be resolved by giving up some control over the Taiwan issue to China.
Mr. Musk also proposed a plan to end the war in Ukraine on the 3rd, but he was criticized by President Volodymyr Zelensky and others.
“Why don’t we consider a special administrative region of Taiwan, which is reasonably acceptable, but probably won’t please everyone,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times reported on Sunday. I think we can probably do it,” he said.
The Chinese government has made Taiwan part of its own country and has not ruled out the use of force to unify it. Taiwan strongly opposes this.
Musk also said he sought assurances from the Chinese government that Starlink, the satellite internet service of his private space company SpaceX, would not be offered in the country.
[ラスベガス ２９日 ロイター] – Akio Toyoda, President of Toyota Motor Corporation, said on the 29th that he will meet the standards set by the state of California in the United States to ban the sale of new gasoline-only vehicles by 2035 and shift to zero-emission vehicles with less environmental impact. He said that it is “difficult” to
He spoke through an interpreter during an interview with the media in Las Vegas.
At a meeting with dealers the previous day, Toyoda said that just as fully self-driving cars are not as widespread as once expected, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will go mainstream despite media expectations. He forecast that it will take time to A video of the meeting was shown at the event on the 29th.
Automakers are under increasing pressure to shift to zero-emission vehicles. New York Governor Hawkle announced on the 29th that he plans to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035, just like California.
In the video, Mr. Toyoda explained that in order to win the competition, it is necessary to play with all the cards, not some, and that is Toyota’s strategy. He likened the company to a “department store” that sells a variety of cars to customers with different needs.
Morning Nikkei average falls for 3 days in a row, fears of recession intensify and overall decline | Reuters
[TOKYO (Reuters)]- On the morning of the 26th, the Nikkei Stock Average dropped 534.30 yen from the previous business day to 26,619.53 yen, falling for three consecutive days. While the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September continues to be factored in, the US stocks fell sharply last weekend, and Japanese stocks continued to be weak. Concerns about an economic recession due to tightening of monetary policy in major countries increased, and the market became a bargain across the board.
Last weekend, the US stock market fell sharply in all three major indexes. The Nikkei Stock Average also started with a significant drop from the opening, and the range of decline has expanded since then. At one point, it fell to 26,515.06 yen, a drop of 630 yen, which was the lowest level since July 14. The rise in US long-term interest rates was disappointing, and especially the drop in pricey stocks and semiconductor-related stocks was conspicuous.
In the first half of the previous session, the air transportation and land transportation industries rose slightly, but turned downward in the second half.
In the market, there are growing concerns about a global recession due to monetary tightening in major countries. Yasufumi Yokoyama of Aizawa Securities’ Market Intelligence Department, Second Section, said that there is a negative perception of the UK’s large-scale tax cuts. With the probability of a hard landing in the economy increasing, he said, “It’s not a situation where you can actively buy stocks.”
Yokoyama said that the Nikkei Stock Average is expected to dip below the milestone 26,000 yen in the short term, and said, “I want to see if there will be dip-buying when it falls below that level.”
The Japanese stock market saw a general sell-off today, while travel-related stocks held firm. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement of the easing of border measures has been well received, and the market has the view that “(travel-related stocks) are likely to continue to move firmly, although sentiment may sway” (domestic asset management company). shown.
TOPIX closed the morning at 1878.14 points, down 1.98%. The trading value of the Tokyo Stock Exchange prime market was 1,553,697 million yen. Of the 33 industries on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, all industries fell, with mining, petroleum and coal products, and non-ferrous metals ranking among the top decliners.
Individually, the SoftBank Group, Tokyo Electron, and Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. were weak. Fast Retailing fell slightly, while mainstay Toyota Motor Corp. fell 2%.
In the TSE prime market, 278 issues (15%) rose, 1,505 issues (81%) fell, and 54 issues (2%) remained unchanged.